SKY BET CHASE TRENDS 2015

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The Listed Sky Bet (Handicap) Chase (formerly the Great Yorkshire) is run over 3 miles for 5yos and upwards and takes place at Doncaster on Saturday 24th January. It is generally won by less exposed chasers who are proven over the 3 mile trip. The race was held at Southwell in 2006 & 2007 and was abandoned in 2010, 2011 & 2013.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2002-2014):



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-7
7yo: 3-2-12
8yo: 2-4-31
9yo: 3-4-42
10yo: 2-8-26
11yo+: 0-3-23
horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 5-7-50.
horses aged 9+ have a combined record of 5-15-91.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses allotted 10-12 or more: 5-12-75
horses allotted 10-11 or less: 5-10-66
Not a whole lot to go on, though 6 of last 7 winners carried 10-9 or more.
Top Weight: PFF9P4P0P13 (1-2-11)
Since 2000 the record of horses carrying a 6lb penalty: 3161 (2-1-4)

Official Ratings


horses rated 137 or over: 1-8-46
horses rated 128 to 136: 6-4-50
horses rated 127 or below: 3-10-45
The last 7 winners have been rated 128 or higher (6 of 7 rated 128 to 136)

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on 1 of their last 2 completed starts
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 129+ in last 2 completed starts
7 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times since August
8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 10 chases
7 of 10 winners had run in no more than 6 handicap chases (3 exceptions had run in 8, 10 & 17)
8 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases (2 exceptions had won 3)
6 of 10 winners were 2nd season chasers
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was a maiden who had been runner-up over 4M 1F)
10 of 10 winners had won at a left-handed track

Other Races


Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase winner (Present View): 4 (0-0-1)
Bet365.com Handicap Chase winner (Grandads horse): P (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in previous year's Grand National, finishing FU
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) contested a class 2 or higher chase at either Cheltenham November meeting or New Year meeting

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (2-1-8) has won 2 of the last 7 renewals of this and saddled a placed finisher last year.
Keith Reveley (0-2-4), Gary Moore (0-2-4), Nicky Henderson (0-2-6) & Sue Smith (0-2-12) have each saddled a couple of placed finishers in last 10 runnings.

Racing Tactics


6 of last 7 winners were held up in midfield or in rear

Price


8 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 12/1
No very strong trend on prices, 7 of 10 winners were sent off 9/1 or shorter, though last 2 winners went off at 12/1 & 25/1.
Favourites (2-2-12) have won 2 of last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 1.50.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7 to 10
- Finished in the first 2 in 1 or both of last 2 completed starts
- Posted an RPR of 129+ in last 2 completed chase starts
- Carrying 10-9 or more
- Officially rated between 128 and 136
- Run in no more than 6 handicap chases
- 2nd season chasers do well
- Won over at least 3 miles
- Won at a left-handed track
- Contested a class 2 or higher chase at Cheltenham November or New Year meeting
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Keith Reveley or Gary Moore.