CLEEVE HURDLE TRENDS 2015

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The Gallardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle is a grade 2 three mile hurdle which takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday 24th January. The distance of the race was increased from 2M 5F to 3M in 2005. Three of the last seven winners of this race have gone on to win the World Hurdle.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-0-8
6yo: 2-5-18
7yo: 0-7-21
8yo: 2-4-19
9yo: 3-1-17
10yo: 0-1-8
11yo+: 1-0-8
The age of winners has been fairly well spread out over past 10 years.
Knockara Beau at 66/1 in 2014 was the first winner aged older than 9 in past 25 years.

Gender


Mares (0-1-2) have been represented in 5 runnings since 2000. A female won the race in 2000, 2001 & 2002 but the only 2 female runners in past 10 years have been Sweet Seville, who was pulled up at 200/1 in 2011, and Kentford Grey Lady, who was 3rd 11/1 in 2013.

Weight


Since this race became a grade 2 in 2004 only Inglis Drever, Big Buck’s (both of whom had won the previous season's World Hurdle) & Reve De Sivola managed to carry 11-8 to victory. All 3 had finished in first 2 in the Long Distance Hurdle that season.
horses carrying 11-8: 3-4-29
horses carrying 11-4: 1-9-23
horses carrying 11-0: 6-4-45

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners posted their highest hurdles RPR in 1 of their last 3 hurdles outings
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 144+ on last completed start (7 posted RPR of 155+)
9 of 10 winners had had 5 to 19 previous hurdles runs (exception was Big Buck's in 2012, winning it for second time)
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a grade 1 or 2 (exception was a listed winner having first try in graded company)
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F+
10 of 10 winners had previously won or placed at Cheltenham

Other Races


Long Walk hurdle winner (Reve De Sivola): 62114 (2-1-5)
Bristol Novice Hurdle winner (Blaklion): 3 (0-1-1)
Sefton Novice Hurdle winner (Beat That): 54882 (0-1-5)
West Yorkshire Hurdle winner (Cole Harden): 888794 (0-0-6)
3 of 10 winners ran in Long Walk Hurdle last time, finishing 411
3 of 10 winners ran in Long Distance Hurdle, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in Liverpool Hurdle, finishing 31
Only 2 of 10 winners ran in the previous World Hurdle, both finishing 1st
6 o 10 winners ran at the previous year’s Aintree Grand National Festival

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (2-0-10) has saddled Big Buck’s to win this in 2009 & 2012.
David Pipe (1-1-8) trained the winner in 2011 & runner-up in 2012.
Nick Williams (1-0-1) won it in 2013 with Reve De Sivola, who is entered again. Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-3) won the race in 2006.
Nicky Henderson (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his last 3 runners get placed.
Rebecca Curtis (0-1-1) has saddled At Fishers Cross to finish 2nd in 2014.

Price


No strong trend on prices with 4 of the last 9 winners going off 14/1 or bigger and other 5 going off shorter than 4/1.
Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 0.50.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 to 9
- Carrying 11-0 (or finished 1st or 2nd in Long Distance Hurdle that season)
- Finished in the first 4 last time out
- Posted highest RPR in last 3 starts
- Posted an RPR of 155+ last time out
- Run 2 to 5 times this season
- Run 5 to 19 times over hurdles
- Previously won at Cheltenham
- Won over at least 2M 5F
- Won or placed in a graded hurdle
- Finished in first 3 in Liverpool Hurdle or Mersey Novice Hurdle in 2014
- Finished in first 3 Long Walk or Long Distance Hurdle this season
- Ran at 2014 Aintree Festival.