The Grade 2 Betbright Cup Chase (formerly the Argento & Cotswold Chase) takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday 24th January. Run over 3M 1½F, it can provide good clues as to a Gold Cup prospect’s suitability for the showpiece in March. The 2006 renewal was run at Wincanton but from a trends point of view, we will look at last 10 runnings at Cheltenham.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings at Cheltenham:
horses aged 9 or 10 have won the last 7 runnings.
4 of 5 horses aged 7 (including both winners) were French bred (French bred 7yos: 2-2-6 compared to 7yos bred in GB & Ire: 0-1-5).
French bred: 4-3-19
Irish bred: 3-11-41
GB bred: 3-1-15
Belgian bred: 0-0-1
French bred horses have done best, winning 4 of last 10 from just 25% of total runners.
Irish bred horses have done poorly, winning 3 of 10 despite representing over 50% of total runners.
GB bred horses have also done well, winning 3 of last 10 from less 20% of total runners.
horses carrying 11-10: 2-4-15
horses carrying 11-4 to 11-6: 5-5-19
horses carrying 11-3 or less: 3-6-22
The last winner to carry 11-10 to victory was Grey Abbey (2005) and, since 2009, all 8 runners to carry 11-10 have been unplaced.
9 of 10 winners were officially rated 153+
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 157+ in at least 1 of last 3 completed chase starts
8 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+ (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a 3M grade 1 chase)
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times since August (8 of 10 had run 2 to 4 times since August)
9 of 10 winners had had 8 to 20 previous chase starts
8 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (1 exception had finished 3rd & 4th in Gold Cups)
9 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (exception had won a grade hurdle & been 3rd in a grade 1 chase)
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a grade 1 chase & other was 5th in a Cheltenham Gold Cup)
Previous season's winner (The Giant Bolster): 34 (0-0-2)
Colin Parker Memorial Chase winner (Many Clouds): 3 (0-1-1)
Highest placed finisher from previous RSA Chase: 1U1P254P4 (2-1-9)
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's RSA Chase, finishing 206
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 54
2 of 10 winners ran in Rowland Meyrick last time, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in King George last time, finishing P2
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Feltham Novice Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Reynoldstown Novice Chase, finishing U5
2 of 10 winners ran in December Gold Cup, finishing 1P
2 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 5B
Paul Nicholls (2-3-11) won back to back runnings in 2010 & 2011.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-11) trained the winner in 2008.
David Bridgwater (1-0-1) & Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-1) have both seen their one runner win this. Colin Tizzard (1-0-3) has also won this once in past 10 years.
Alan King (0-2-2) has saddled Halcon Generlardais to be placed in 2 renewals.
David Pipe (0-2-6) trained Our Vic to finish 2nd twice in this.
No strong trends on prices with 7 of 10 winners priced between 11/4 & 7/1 and the other 3 going off at odds of 11/1 to 16/1.
The favourite (0-7-12) has a shocking record, having not won any of the last 10. You have to go back to 1999 for last successful market leader.
Based on trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 9 or 10 (or French bred 7yo)
- French or GB bred
- Officially rated 153+
- Carrying 11-6 or less
- Posted an RPR of 157+ in at least 1 of last 3 completed chase starts
- Had won over 2M 7F+
- Run 2 to 4 times this season
- Had run 8 to 20 time over fences
- Previously won at Cheltenham
- Had won a graded chase
- Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase
- Finished in first 6 in Cheltenham Gold Cup or RSA Chase.