The Grade 2 Betbright Cup Chase (formerly the Argento & Cotswold Chase) takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday 24th January. Run over 3M 1½F, it can provide good clues as to a Gold Cup prospect’s suitability for the showpiece in March. The 2006 renewal was run at Wincanton but from a trends point of view, we will look at last 10 runnings at Cheltenham.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings at Cheltenham:

Age
6yo: 0-0-1
7yo: 2-3-11
8yo: 0-4-17
9yo: 3-3-19
10yo: 4-2-13
11yo+: 1-3-15
horses aged 9 or 10 have won the last 7 runnings.
4 of 5 horses aged 7 (including both winners) were French bred (French bred 7yos: 2-2-6 compared to 7yos bred in GB & Ire: 0-1-5).

Breeding


French bred: 4-3-19
Irish bred: 3-11-41
GB bred: 3-1-15
Belgian bred: 0-0-1
French bred horses have done best, winning 4 of last 10 from just 25% of total runners.
Irish bred horses have done poorly, winning 3 of 10 despite representing over 50% of total runners.
GB bred horses have also done well, winning 3 of last 10 from less 20% of total runners.

Weight


horses carrying 11-10: 2-4-15
horses carrying 11-4 to 11-6: 5-5-19
horses carrying 11-3 or less: 3-6-22
The last winner to carry 11-10 to victory was Grey Abbey (2005) and, since 2009, all 8 runners to carry 11-10 have been unplaced.

Official Ratings


9 of 10 winners were officially rated 153+

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 157+ in at least 1 of last 3 completed chase starts
8 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+ (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a 3M grade 1 chase)
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times since August (8 of 10 had run 2 to 4 times since August)
9 of 10 winners had had 8 to 20 previous chase starts
8 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (1 exception had finished 3rd & 4th in Gold Cups)
9 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (exception had won a grade hurdle & been 3rd in a grade 1 chase)
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a grade 1 chase & other was 5th in a Cheltenham Gold Cup)

Other Races


Previous season's winner (The Giant Bolster): 34 (0-0-2)
Colin Parker Memorial Chase winner (Many Clouds): 3 (0-1-1)
Highest placed finisher from previous RSA Chase: 1U1P254P4 (2-1-9)
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's RSA Chase, finishing 206
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 54
2 of 10 winners ran in Rowland Meyrick last time, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in King George last time, finishing P2
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Feltham Novice Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Reynoldstown Novice Chase, finishing U5
2 of 10 winners ran in December Gold Cup, finishing 1P
2 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 5B

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (2-3-11) won back to back runnings in 2010 & 2011.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-11) trained the winner in 2008.
David Bridgwater (1-0-1) & Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-1) have both seen their one runner win this. Colin Tizzard (1-0-3) has also won this once in past 10 years.
Alan King (0-2-2) has saddled Halcon Generlardais to be placed in 2 renewals.
David Pipe (0-2-6) trained Our Vic to finish 2nd twice in this.

Price


No strong trends on prices with 7 of 10 winners priced between 11/4 & 7/1 and the other 3 going off at odds of 11/1 to 16/1.
The favourite (0-7-12) has a shocking record, having not won any of the last 10. You have to go back to 1999 for last successful market leader.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 9 or 10 (or French bred 7yo)
- French or GB bred
- Officially rated 153+
- Carrying 11-6 or less
- Posted an RPR of 157+ in at least 1 of last 3 completed chase starts
- Had won over 2M 7F+
- Run 2 to 4 times this season
- Had run 8 to 20 time over fences
- Previously won at Cheltenham
- Had won a graded chase
- Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase
- Finished in first 6 in Cheltenham Gold Cup or RSA Chase.