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    Info SCILLY ISLES NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2015

    The Betfred TV Scilly Isles Novice Chase takes placed on Saturday, 31st January. A grade 1 chase for novices, run over 2M 4½F. The race should provide some good pointers to the JLT Novice Chase at Cheltenham.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 1-0-5
    6yo: 2-2-15
    7yo: 6-1-20
    8yo: 0-4-7
    9yo: 1-0-2
    10yo: 0-0-2
    7yos have won 6 of the last 10 from 39.2% of the total runners.

    Recent/Past Form


    9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since August (exception won grade 2 on only start)
    9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time (exception was 3rd in a grade 1)
    7 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 148+ last time
    9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 144+ in last 2 starts
    9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 1 1/2F+ (7 of 10 had won over 2M 4F+)
    9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over fences (exception won grade 2 on only chase start)
    8 of 10 winners had previously won a chase (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase)
    8 of 10 winners (last 5) had finished 1st or 2nd in grade 1 or 2 chase
    5 of last 7 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
    4 of 9 winners at Sandown were previous course winners (3 of 5 exceptions were having their first course start)

    Other races


    Ryman Stationer Novice Chase winner (Champagne West): 71 (1-0-2)
    Royal Gloucestershire Hussars Novice Chase winner (Splash Of Ginge): 5 (0-0-1)
    Record of 1st & 2nd from Dipper Novice Chase: 1111 (4-0-4)
    4 of 10 winners ran in Dipper Novice Chase last time, finishing 2221
    3 of 10 winners ran in Henry VIII Novice Chase, finishing 321
    2 of 10 winners ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing R2
    2 of 10 winners ran in Ryman Stationer Novice Chase, finishing F1
    2 of 10 winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 21
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Tolworth Hurdle, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 22
    2 of 10 winners ran in Top Novice Hurdle, finishing 32
    2 of 10 winners ran in World Hurdle, finishing 2P
    6 of 10 winners contested a hurdle at previous Cheltenham Festival

    Trainers


    Paul Nicholls (4-2-11) saddled 4 consecutive winners between 2006 & 2009.
    Nicky Henderson (3-2-8) has trained 3 of last 5 winners.
    Alan King (1-0-5) trained Medermit to win this in 2011.
    Philip Hobbs (0-2-3) has gained 2 seconds and a third from his 3 runners since 2005.

    Price


    10 of 10 winners were priced 4/1 or shorter
    All 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting, with the favourite winning 7 of last 8.
    Favourites (7-0-10) have won 7 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 4.10.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - 7yos do well
    - Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (posting an RPR of 148+)
    - Posted an RPR of 144+ in one or both last 2 chase starts
    - Has won over 2M 2F+
    - Run 2 to 4 times over fences (winning at least once or placed in a grade 1)
    - Finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 or 2 chase
    - Previous course winner (or having first run here)
    - Has won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
    - Finished in first 2 in the Dipper and/or Berkshire Novice Chase
    - Finished in first 3 in Henry VIII, Steel Plate & Sections and/or Ryman Stationer Novice Chase
    - Ran in a hurdle at 2014 Cheltenham Festival
    - Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson
    - Price 4/1 or shorter (favourite does well).

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (28th January 2015) 


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