day 2 cheltenham 2015 trends

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NIM Novices Hurdle


RSA Chase


Coral Cup


Queen Mother's Chase


Cross Country Chase


Fred Winter


Champion Bumper



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QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE TRENDS 2015




The highlight of the second day of the Cheltenham Festival is the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. The past 2 winners of the race, Sprinter Sacre & Sire De Grugy, have both been hit by injuries over last 12 months and there are still question marks to answer for both.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-0-1
6yo: 2-3-10
7yo: 1-2-12
8yo: 2-2-27
9yo: 3-3-22
10yo: 0-7-14
11yo+: 1-2-10
horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 4-5-23 (all 4 winners were French bred)
horses aged 8+ have a combined record of 6-14-73 (5 of 6 winners were Irish-bred)
Moscow Flyer has been the only winner in the last 10 runnings to be aged over 9 (and the only winner aged over 10 in last 30 years)

Breeding


Irish bred: 5-10-42
French bred: 5-5-34
German bred: 0-3-6
British bred: 0-1-13
NZ Bred: 0-0-1
French & Irish bred horses have won the last 10, though they did represent just over 70% of the total runners.
Most Irish bred runners don’t run in this until they are at least 8 but the continental 2M chasers seem to peak much younger:
French & German bred horses aged 5 to 7: 4-5-20
French & German bred horses aged 8 or older: 1-4-20
Sire De Grugy & Edredon Bleu have been the only French bred winners aged 8 in past 20 years, there has been no French winner aged older than 8 in past 30 years.

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners won a graded chase on their last completed start (2 exception finished 2nd & 3rd in graded chases)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 165+ on last completed chase start


10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 7 to 13 chases (exception was Moscow Flyer when winning it for a second time)
9 of 10 winners had won over 55% of their completed chase starts
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (exception was Moscow Flyer when winning it for a second time)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 1F+
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (exceptions was runner-up in only previous grade 1 start)
5 of 10 winners were course winners (2 exceptions hadn’t run at the track before, 1 fell on only previous course start, one was 2nd in previous season's Arkle & other was 2nd on both starts at Cheltenham, in class 1 chases)

Previous Cheltenham Festival Form


Defending Champion Chaser (Sire De Grugy): 35421422 (1-4-8)
Highest placed Arkle Finisher to run in this: 2U1362111U (4-3-10)
Grand Annual Chase winner (Savello): 25 (0-1-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Arkle, finishing 1121
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous Champion chase, finishing 1F
Sire De Grugy in 2014 (who arguably won a weak renewal), Master Minded in 2008 (who was having his first season racing in Great Britain) and Newmill in 2006 (who benefitted from Kauto Star’s fall) were the only three winners not to have run in the Arkle or Champion Chase at the previous Festival.

Other races


Tingle Creek winner (Dodging Bullets: 161P8211 (4-1-8)
Desert Orchid Chase winner (Special Tiara): 12141 (3-1-5)
Clarence House Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): 271P811 (3-1-7)
Maghulls Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 26311 (2-2-5)
Tied Cottage Chase winner: 141422 (2-2-6)
Fortria Chase winner (Twinlight): U14123 (2-2-6)
Previous season's Kingmaker Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 11 (2-0-2)
Punchestown Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 14PF4432 (1-2-7)
Game Spirit Chase winner: 31463 (1-1-5)
Celebration Chase winner (Sire De Grugy): P3P741 (1-1-6)
32Red H'cap Chase winner (Mr Mole): 4B19 (1-0-4)
Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet winner (Twinlight): 6PF6232 (0-3-7)
Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 224 (0-2-3)
Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Champagne Fever): 2P (0-1-2)
Poplar Square Chase winner (Moscow Mannon): 63 (0-1-2)
Manifesto Novices' Chase winner (Uxizandre): 0FP (0-0-3)
Shloer Chase winner (Uxizandre): 7437 (0-0-4)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 121411
2 of 10 winners ran in the Melling chase, finishing 12
3 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in Tied Cottage Chase last time, finishing 113
2 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing 51
2 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing 13
4 of 6 British-trained winners (last 4) ran in Clarence House Chase, finishing 1211
4 of 6 British-trained winners (last 3) ran in previous Maghull Novice Chase, finishing 2114
3 of 6 British-trained winners ran in Desert Orchid Chase, finishing 111
2 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Game Spirit Chase last time, finishing U1

Trainers


Nicky Henderson (2-1-8) has trained 2 of the last 3 winners of the Queen Mother.
Paul Nicholls (2-1-15) won back to back runnings in 2008 & 2009 with Master Minded. His 3 winners since 2000 have all been French breds aged 7 or younger.
Henry De Bromhead (1-2-5) has saddled Sizing Europe to finish 1st, 2nd, 2nd & 4th in past 4 runnings.
Alan King (1-1-3) trained Voy Por Ustedes to finish 1st & 2nd in 2007 & 2008.
Gary Moore (1-0-1) trained Sire De Grugy to win this last year.
Philip Hobbs (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 representatives make the frame.
Mick Channon (0-1-2) & Tom George (0-1-2) trained 2nd & 3rd last year.
Willie Mullins (0-0-4) has seen his 5 runners since 2000 all finish unplaced.
Irish trained runners (4-7-30) have won 4 of the last 10 from approximately 31.3% of the total runners. The first 2 home in 2010, the first 4 home in 2011 and the 2nd & 3rd in 2012 & 2nd in 2013 were all trained in Ireland.

Price


7 of 10 winners were priced 5/1 or below
The 3 winners priced higher than 5/1 were all trained in Ireland.
Favourites (4-2-10) have taken 4 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 1.14.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 8 or 9


- Won a graded chase on last completed outing


- Posted an RPR of 165+ last time out


- Run 2 to 5 times this season


- Run 7 to 13 times over fences (or a previous Champion Chase winner)


- Won over 50% of completed career chase starts


- 2nd or 3rd season chaser (or previous Champion Chase winner)


- Won over at least 2M 1F


- Previously won a grade 1 chase


- Course winner (or having first course run)


- Won the Arkle or ran in Champion Chase at 2014 Festival


- Finished in the first 4 in the Tingle Creek and/or 2014 Maghull Novice Chase


- Won 2014 Kingmaker Novice Chase and/or Desert Orchid


- Ran in Game Spirit, Clarence House or Tied Cottage Chase last time


- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland.