day 2 cheltenham 2015 trends

[ganjaman2]

NIM Novices Hurdle


RSA Chase


Coral Cup


Queen Mother's Chase


Cross Country Chase


Fred Winter


Champion Bumper



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QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE TRENDS 2015




The highlight of the second day of the Cheltenham Festival is the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. The past 2 winners of the race, Sprinter Sacre & Sire De Grugy, have both been hit by injuries over last 12 months and there are still question marks to answer for both.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-0-1
6yo: 2-3-10
7yo: 1-2-12
8yo: 2-2-27
9yo: 3-3-22
10yo: 0-7-14
11yo+: 1-2-10
horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 4-5-23 (all 4 winners were French bred)
horses aged 8+ have a combined record of 6-14-73 (5 of 6 winners were Irish-bred)
Moscow Flyer has been the only winner in the last 10 runnings to be aged over 9 (and the only winner aged over 10 in last 30 years)

Breeding


Irish bred: 5-10-42
French bred: 5-5-34
German bred: 0-3-6
British bred: 0-1-13
NZ Bred: 0-0-1
French & Irish bred horses have won the last 10, though they did represent just over 70% of the total runners.
Most Irish bred runners don’t run in this until they are at least 8 but the continental 2M chasers seem to peak much younger:
French & German bred horses aged 5 to 7: 4-5-20
French & German bred horses aged 8 or older: 1-4-20
Sire De Grugy & Edredon Bleu have been the only French bred winners aged 8 in past 20 years, there has been no French winner aged older than 8 in past 30 years.

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners won a graded chase on their last completed start (2 exception finished 2nd & 3rd in graded chases)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 165+ on last completed chase start


10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 7 to 13 chases (exception was Moscow Flyer when winning it for a second time)
9 of 10 winners had won over 55% of their completed chase starts
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (exception was Moscow Flyer when winning it for a second time)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 1F+
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (exceptions was runner-up in only previous grade 1 start)
5 of 10 winners were course winners (2 exceptions hadn’t run at the track before, 1 fell on only previous course start, one was 2nd in previous season's Arkle & other was 2nd on both starts at Cheltenham, in class 1 chases)

Previous Cheltenham Festival Form


Defending Champion Chaser (Sire De Grugy): 35421422 (1-4-8)
Highest placed Arkle Finisher to run in this: 2U1362111U (4-3-10)
Grand Annual Chase winner (Savello): 25 (0-1-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Arkle, finishing 1121
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous Champion chase, finishing 1F
Sire De Grugy in 2014 (who arguably won a weak renewal), Master Minded in 2008 (who was having his first season racing in Great Britain) and Newmill in 2006 (who benefitted from Kauto Star’s fall) were the only three winners not to have run in the Arkle or Champion Chase at the previous Festival.

Other races


Tingle Creek winner (Dodging Bullets: 161P8211 (4-1-8)
Desert Orchid Chase winner (Special Tiara): 12141 (3-1-5)
Clarence House Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): 271P811 (3-1-7)
Maghulls Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 26311 (2-2-5)
Tied Cottage Chase winner: 141422 (2-2-6)
Fortria Chase winner (Twinlight): U14123 (2-2-6)
Previous season's Kingmaker Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 11 (2-0-2)
Punchestown Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 14PF4432 (1-2-7)
Game Spirit Chase winner: 31463 (1-1-5)
Celebration Chase winner (Sire De Grugy): P3P741 (1-1-6)
32Red H'cap Chase winner (Mr Mole): 4B19 (1-0-4)
Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet winner (Twinlight): 6PF6232 (0-3-7)
Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 224 (0-2-3)
Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Champagne Fever): 2P (0-1-2)
Poplar Square Chase winner (Moscow Mannon): 63 (0-1-2)
Manifesto Novices' Chase winner (Uxizandre): 0FP (0-0-3)
Shloer Chase winner (Uxizandre): 7437 (0-0-4)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 121411
2 of 10 winners ran in the Melling chase, finishing 12
3 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in Tied Cottage Chase last time, finishing 113
2 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing 51
2 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing 13
4 of 6 British-trained winners (last 4) ran in Clarence House Chase, finishing 1211
4 of 6 British-trained winners (last 3) ran in previous Maghull Novice Chase, finishing 2114
3 of 6 British-trained winners ran in Desert Orchid Chase, finishing 111
2 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Game Spirit Chase last time, finishing U1

Trainers


Nicky Henderson (2-1-8) has trained 2 of the last 3 winners of the Queen Mother.
Paul Nicholls (2-1-15) won back to back runnings in 2008 & 2009 with Master Minded. His 3 winners since 2000 have all been French breds aged 7 or younger.
Henry De Bromhead (1-2-5) has saddled Sizing Europe to finish 1st, 2nd, 2nd & 4th in past 4 runnings.
Alan King (1-1-3) trained Voy Por Ustedes to finish 1st & 2nd in 2007 & 2008.
Gary Moore (1-0-1) trained Sire De Grugy to win this last year.
Philip Hobbs (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 representatives make the frame.
Mick Channon (0-1-2) & Tom George (0-1-2) trained 2nd & 3rd last year.
Willie Mullins (0-0-4) has seen his 5 runners since 2000 all finish unplaced.
Irish trained runners (4-7-30) have won 4 of the last 10 from approximately 31.3% of the total runners. The first 2 home in 2010, the first 4 home in 2011 and the 2nd & 3rd in 2012 & 2nd in 2013 were all trained in Ireland.

Price


7 of 10 winners were priced 5/1 or below
The 3 winners priced higher than 5/1 were all trained in Ireland.
Favourites (4-2-10) have taken 4 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 1.14.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 8 or 9


- Won a graded chase on last completed outing


- Posted an RPR of 165+ last time out


- Run 2 to 5 times this season


- Run 7 to 13 times over fences (or a previous Champion Chase winner)


- Won over 50% of completed career chase starts


- 2nd or 3rd season chaser (or previous Champion Chase winner)


- Won over at least 2M 1F


- Previously won a grade 1 chase


- Course winner (or having first course run)


- Won the Arkle or ran in Champion Chase at 2014 Festival


- Finished in the first 4 in the Tingle Creek and/or 2014 Maghull Novice Chase


- Won 2014 Kingmaker Novice Chase and/or Desert Orchid


- Ran in Game Spirit, Clarence House or Tied Cottage Chase last time


- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland.

[ganjaman2]

RSA CHASE TRENDS 2015




The RSA Chase takes place on day 2 of the Festival and is run over 3 miles and 110 yards. This race attracts novice chasers bred with a pedigree with more of an emphasis on stamina than speed. horses that run well in this race often go on to glory in the Hennessy Gold Cup, King George or Cheltenham Gold Cup the following season.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-1-5
6yo: 0-4-19
7yo: 9-10-63
8yo: 0-4-23
9yo+: 0-1-13
7yos have won 9 of the last 10 runnings of this race (including the last 8) and accounted for 19 of 30 places from approximately 51.2% of the total runners.
From 2008 5yos only receive a 2lb weight for age allowance which means it is much tougher for them to win this contest. Both 5yos to make the frame were French bred.
Only one horse aged 9+ has made the frame in past 10 renewals. The only winner aged 9+ in past 25 years was Miinnehoma in 1992.

Gender


Mares (0-0-5) have failed to make the places with any of their 5 representatives in the last 10 runnings. 3 of the 5 went off shorter than 10/1.

Breeding


Irish Bred: 9-14-72
French Bred: 1-2-27
British Bred: 0-4-19
Other: 0-0-5
Irish bred horses have won 9 of the last 10 runnings of this race, from approximately 58.5% of total runners.
2 of 3 French bred horses to make the frame were aged 5, record of French bred horses aged 6+ is 0-1-22.
Record of progeny of Presenting: 14P2122P4 (2-3-9)
Record of progeny of Oscar: 7511 (2-0-4)
Record of progeny of Bob Back: PU21F (1-1-5)
The last 2 winners were sired by Oscar.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time (exception 3rd, beaten a 1/2 length in a grade 1)
8 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 150+ last time out (1 exception posted an RPR of 155 on second last run)
10 of 10 winners had their last run between 24 and 55 days ago
10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases
6 of 6 British-trained winner had run in 3 or 4 chases
3 of 4 Irish-trained winners had run in 5 chases
9 of 10 winners had won a chase at a left-handed track (exception was pulled up one chase run left-handed, but gained both hurdles wins left-handed)
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F+ (exception beaten a 1/2 Length in grade 1 over 2M 5F last time)
10 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 9 times over hurdles
0 of 10 winners had run under flat rules
The last 10 winners had previously run in a combined 39 chases the season they won the RSA Chase and of those 39 they finished in the first 3 in 36, fell in 1, pulled up in 1 and 4th in the other (in a grade 1).
The last 8 winners were officially rated 135+ over hurdles and the previous 2 were all rated in the 120's over hurdles.

Other Races


Reynoldstown Novice Chase winner: 14261 (2-1-5)
Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle winner (Very Wood): 11 (2-0-2)
Highest placed finisher from previous year's Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle: 5F1F1F1 (3-0-7)
Berkshire Novice Chase winner (Coneygree): 1P514 (2-0-5)
Flogas (P J Moriarty) Novice Chase winner: 71F1F4 (2-0-6)
Cheltenham Club Novices' Chase winner (Kings Palace): 21P3PF (1-2-6)
Better Odds with Betfair Price Rush Novices' Chase winner: 1PP42 (1-1-5)
Ballymaloe Country Relish Beginners Chase winner (Le Vent D'Antan): 1 (1-0-1)
Porter & Co. Beginners Chase winner (Apache Stronghold): 91 (1-0-2)
Steel Plate And Sections Novices' Chase winner (Champagne West): 154 (1-0-3)
Topaz Novice Chase winner (Don Poli): F516 (1-0-4)
Feltham Novice Chase winner (Coneygree): 3663448 (0-2-7)
Worcester Novice Chase winner (Carraig Mor): 336PP47 (0-2-7)
Ryman Stationer Novices' Chase winner (Kings Palace): 339665P5 (0-2-8)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Don Poli): (0-1-1)
Florida Pearl Novice Chase winner (Shanahan's Turn): 3 (0-1-1)
Ballymore Christmas Fair & Family Fun November Festival Beginners Chase winner (Shanahan's Turn): 3 (0-1-1)
Towton Novice Chase winner (Ned Stark): 36 (0-1-2)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Wounded Warrior): 2F (0-1-2)
Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Valseur Lido): F2F (0-1-3)
Rising Star Novice Chase winner (Southfield Theatre): 277 (0-1-3)
Gain Supporting Laois GAA Beginners Chase winner (Valseur Lido): 54 (0-0-2)
Scilly Isles Novices' Chase winner (Gitane Du Berlais: 45 (0-0-2)
Harry Dutfield Memorial Novices' Chase winner (Saphir Du Rheu): PF5 (0-0-3)
4 of 4 Irish-trained runners ran in the Flogas Novice Chase last time, finishing 1213
2 of 4 Irish-trained runners ran in Topaz Novice Chase, finishing 21
3 of 6 British-trained winners (last 3) ran in Reynoldstown Novices' Chase last time, finishing 121
2 of 6 British-trained winners ran in Totesport.mobi Novices' Chase, finishing 12
2 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Feltham Novices' Chase, finishing 23
2 of 6 British-trained winners had won the Berkshire Novice Chase
4 of 10 winners ran in Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, finishing 1P14
3 of 10 winners had previously run in the Champion Bumper, finishing 207

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (2-1-12) has won 2 of the last 10 runnings (’06 and ’07).
Willie Mullins (1-2-12) has done well in this race when his horses have completed, winning it in ’98, ’04 and ’09 and filling a place in ’00, ’07 & ‘12. However 7 of his 14 runners since 2004 fell or unseated.
Tom George (0-1-1), Gordon Elliot (0-1-2), Alan King (0-1-2), Mouse Morris (0-1-2) & Philp Hobbs (0-1-2) have all saddled a placed finisher in past 10 years.
Irish trained runners (4-7-37) have won 4 of the last 6 runnings, whilst filling 2nd & 3rd in 2012, the 1st & 2nd in 2013 and 3rd & 4th in 2014.

Price


No strong trends on price as 5 of the last 10 winners went off at 8/1 to 16/1 and the other 5 were sent off 5/1 or shorter.


Favourites (3-2-11) have won 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.45.






Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7


- Irish bred (or French bred 5yo)


- Progeny of Oscar & Presenting do well


- Finished in first 2 last time


- Posted an RPR of 150+ last time out


- Had last run between 24 and 55 days ago


- Run in 3 to 5 chases


- Finished in the first 3 in all completed chase starts


- Finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase


- Won a chase at a left-handed track this season


- Won over at least 2M 5F


- Ran no more than 9 times over hurdles & never run on the flat


- Officially rated 136+ over hurdles


- Irish trained that finished in first 2 in PJ Moriarty and/or Topaz Novice Chase


- British-trained & finished in first 3 in Feltham, Reynoldstown and/or Berkshire Novice Chase


- Ran in 2014 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle (ideally finishing in first 4)


- Trained by Willie Mullins or Paul Nicholls.

[ganjaman2]

NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS MANAGEMENT NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2015




The Neptune Investments Management Novices’ Hurdle is run over 2M 5F and is generally chosen for novice hurdlers with more stamina than those who go for the Supreme Novices’. As with every other year there are plenty of horses with dual entries making ante post betting in this race a treacherous proposition.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-5
5yo: 5-6-53
6yo: 5-12-66
7yo: 0-2-25
8yo+: 0-0-1
10 of 10 winners have been aged 5 or 6 (10-18-119), though they have represented 79.3% of the total runners.
No 4yo has made the frame in the past 10 renewals while horses aged 7+ have a combined record of 0-2-26.

Gender


Mares (0-1-7) have gained just one place from 7 runners in the past 10 runnings.

Breeding


Irish bred: 7-9-84
French bred: 2-3-16
British bred: 1-6-41
German bred: 0-2-7
American bred: 0-0-2
9 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred
British bred hurdlers had fared poorly in this prior to Simonsig’s win in 2012, failing to win any of the previous 10 runnings. They have won just 1 of last 10 now, despite representing over 25% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 6 hurdles races that season (winning at least twice)
8 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all completed hurdle starts that season
8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 145+ last time out
9 of 10 winners (last 9) were NH bred (exception had won a listed race on the flat & was rated 102)
9 of 10 winners won over 2M 4F+


9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a graded hurdle (exception had won on only previous hurdles start)
4 of 5 Irish-trained winners had won a hurdle at Leopardstown, Punchestown or Navan

Other Races


Lawlor's Hotel Slaney Novice Hurdle winner (McKinley): 2132 (1-3-4)
Navan Novice Hurdle winner (No More Heroes): 53143 (1-2-5)
Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle winner (Outlander): 13 (1-1-2)
Cliona's Foundation Novice Hurdle winner (Martello Tower): 31 (1-1-2)
Rossington Main Novice Hurdle winner (Aso): 01 (1-0-2)
Weatherbys Private Banking Champion Bumper winner (Ballybolley): 51 (1-0-2)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (No More Heroes): F41 (1-0-3)
British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Seedling): 222 (0-3-3)
Challow Novice Hurdle winner (Parlour Games): 226 (0-2-3)
At The Races 4yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Identity Thief): 37 (0-1-2)
Classic Novice Hurdle winner (Orbo Ab Chao): 039 (0-1-3)
Hyde Novice Hurdle winner (Parlour Games): 720 (0-1-3)
Cheltenham Standard Open NH Flat Race winner (Definitely Red): 029 (0-1-3)
Visit www.punchestown.com for offers 4yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Alpha Des Obeaux): 04 (0-0-2)
Winter Novice Hurdle winner (Vyta Du Roc): 6064 (0-0-4)
Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner: 7745440 (0-0-7)
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Navan Novice Hurdle, finishing 12
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Classic Novice Hurdle, finishing 32
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Leamington Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Winter Novice Hurdle, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Champion Bumper, finishing 56

Trainers


Willie Mullins (3-5-12) has saddled 3 winners & 5 places from 12 runners in past 10 years.
Mouse Morris (1-2-6) has gained a win, 2 seconds and a fourth from 6 runners since 2005 (other 2 went off 100/1).
Noel Meade (1-1-6) won this with Nicanor in 2006 and saddled Monksland to be 3rd in 2012.
Philip Hobbs (1-0-2), Donald McCain (1-0-2) and Nicky Henderson (1-0-10) have all trained the winner in the past 10 year, as had Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-8), who trained the winner in 2004 & 2013.
Paul Nicholls (0-2-6) has trained two runners-up from his 6 runners in this.
Ian Williams (0-1-1) saddled the 20/1 runner-up in 2014, his first run in the race since 1999, when he had the 100/1 third.
Irish-trained runners (5-12-47) have won 5 of the last 10 and over a third of their representatives have made the frame since 2005. They have won 4 of last 7 and been responsible for 2nd & 3rd in two of other 3 runnings.

Price


9 of 10 winners were 12/1 or shorter & came from first 5 in betting
In the last 6 years 16 of 18 placed finishers went off shorter than 8/1.
Favourites (3-4-11) have an average record, winning 3 of the last 10 renewals and show a level stakes loss of 1.00.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 or 6


- NH bred (or won class 1 race on the flat).


- French or Irish bred gelding


- Posted an RPR of 145+ last time


- Run in 3 to 6 hurdles this season (winning at least 2)


- Finished 1st or 2nd in all completed hurdle runs this season


- Finished in the first 2 in a graded hurdle


- Won a hurdles race over 2M 4F or further


- Won the Navan, Slaney and/or Leamington Novice Hurdle


- Finished in first 3 in Classic and/or Winter Novices’ Hurdle


- From the first 5 in the betting (8/1 or shorter)


- Trained in Ireland (especially by Willie Mullins or Mouse Morris) or by Nigel Twiston-Davies.

[ganjaman2]

CHAMPION BUMPER TRENDS 2015




The Weatherbys Champion Bumper, which brings the second day of the Festival to a close, is always a hot betting heat with the Irish usually getting heavily stuck into one or two of their own runners. Not surprising really seeing as an Irish trained runner has won 17 of the 22 runnings of this race since it began in 1992, though the home team have won the prize in 2 of last 5 years.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age
4yo: 1-4-42
5yo: 5-13-137
6yo: 4-3-52
Not a huge amount to go on from the age stats, though 6yos have punched above their weight, from a representative percentage point of view. They have won 4 of last 10 but only represented 22.5% of total runners.
4 of the 5 horses aged 4 to make the frame were trained in Great Britain.

Breeding


Irish bred: 6-12-152
GB bred: 3-6-50
French bred: 1-2-23
Other: 0-0-6
Only 6 of the last 10 winners were bred in Ireland, which is a poor return when you consider they’ve represented almost 66% of the total runners.
10 of 10 winners were sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2 on the flat

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had run no more than twice since August and not finished outside first 2 in any of those starts
10 of 10 winners won last time out
3 of 3 winners who had won on their only start under rules posted an RPR of 110 to 114 last time
4 of 4 winners who had won 2+ times under rules posted an RPR of 131 or higher last time
8 of 10 winners had won at a left-handed track
7 of 10 winners made their rules debut at either Leopardstown or Punchestown


9 of 10 winners had either been beaten or had to battle to gain one of their wins (1 exception was Cue Card who had run just once, winning a class 6 Fontwell bumper with ease)

Other Races


Oliver Russell Lifetime Services to Ward Union Hunt Bumper winner (Au Quart De Tour): 301 (1-1-3)
Paddy Power Late Night Shopping (Pro/Am) INH Flat Race winner: 8136 (1-1-4)
Navan Future Champions Grade 2 Bumper winner (Bordini): 42108 (1-1-5)
Thornton's Recycling INH Flat Race winner (Up For Review): 01 (1-0-2)
Tipper Road bumper winner (Tombstone): 106 (1-0-3)
Leopardstown Club Membership INH Flat Race winner (Archive): 50335 (0-2-5)
Super Sunday INH Flat Race winner (Valerian Bridge): 3 (0-1-1)
Kettles Hotel Supporting Fingal Ravens Flat Race winner (Tycoon Prince): 442 (0-1-3)
Dick Grainger Memorial Flat Race winner (Bordini): P20 (0-1-3)
Read Paul Nicholls Exclusively on Betfair Bumper winner (Barters Hill): U6267 (0-1-5)
Your Clubs Fundraiser At Fairyhouse Flat Race winner (Stone Hard): 00 (0-0-2)
Old House Kill (Pro/Am) 4yo INH Flat Race winner (Livelovelaugh): 04 (0-0-2)
Neptune Investment Management NH Flat Race winner (Wait For Me): 090 (0-0-3)
Cheltenham Pony Club Standard NH Flat Race winner (Willful Dreaming): 0068 (0-0-4)
www.leopardstown.com 4yo INH Flat Race winner (Balko Des Flos): 0087 (0-0-4)
P.J. Foley Memorial INH Flat Race winner (Stone Hard): 00404 (0-0-5)
Record of horses that finished in first 2 in a bumper at Leopardstown Christmas Meeting: 810000010901 (3-0-12)
3 of 8 Irish-trained winners finished in first 2 in a bumper at Leopardstown Christmas meeting
2 of 8 Irish-trained winners ran in a bumper at Punchestown Festival the previous year

Trainers


Willie Mullins (4-2-33) has won 8 of the last 18 runnings of this, including 4 of the last 10. He saddled the 1st & 3rd in 2012, winner in 2013 and the 2nd, 4th & 6th last year.
Dermot Weld (1-1-6) trained the winner in 2014.
Colin Tizzard (1-0-6) & Philip Hobbs (1-0-9) have been the 2 British-based trainers to win this in past 10 years.
Paul Nicholls (0-2-6) has saddled 2 placed finishers, while Tony Martin (0-1-3) trained Golantila to finish 3rd in 2013.
Donald McCain (0-0-3), Nicky Henderson (0-0-3), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-5), Jonjo O'Neill (0-0-5) & David Pipe (0-0-6) have seen their collective 22 runners, in past 10 years, all finish unplaced.
Irish trained horses (8-12-103) have won 8 of the last 10 renewals from approximately 44.6% of the total runners though the first 2 home in 2010 & 2011 and the runner-up in 2012 & 2013 were all trained in Britain.
2 of last 3 British-trained winners began their racing careers in Ireland.

Price


Longer priced runners have held sway recently with 7 of the last 9 winners going off at double-figure prices and last 5 winners have gone off 40/1, 14/1, 16/1, 25/1 & 16/1.


Favourites (1-4-11) have only won just 1 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.






Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Sired by a group 1 or 2 winner on the flat


- Has had 1 to 4 career starts


- Made their rules debut in Ireland (ideally at Punchestown)


- Won last time out


- Posted an RPR of 131+ last time (or won only rules start of past 12 months last time)


- Run no more than twice since August & finished in first 2 in all those starts


- Has been beaten or taken off the bridle when winning a bumper


- Won at a left-handed track (or yet to run at a L-H track)


- Won a bumper at Punchestown or Naas


- Ran at the 2014 Punchestown Festival


- Finished in first 2 in a bumper at Leopardstown Christmas Meeting


- Trained in Ireland (ideally by Willie Mullins).

[ganjaman2]

CROSS COUNTRY CHASE TRENDS 2015




The Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase is another of the newer races, having been introduced in 2005. 8 of the 10 runnings of the race have been won by an Irish-trained runner, while Philip Hobbs has been the only trainer able to win it for the home team, having done it twice in 2012 & 2014, with Balthazar King, who misses the race this year.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 9 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-2
7yo: 0-0-5
8yo: 2-4-22
9yo: 2-5-29
10yo: 3-5-33
11yo: 0-7-29
12yo: 3-3-23
13yo+: 0-5-16
Ages of the winners is spread out amongst those aged 8 to 12.
In past 8 years:
horses aged 8 to 10: 7-12-66
horses aged 11 or older: 1-11-54
In past 8 years 7 of the 8 winners were aged 8 to 10 and 8 of the last 12 horses aged 11+ to make the frame had won or placed in the race before.

Breeding


Irish bred: 8-19-86
French bred: 2-8-45
GB bred: 0-2-25
Other: 0-0-3
8 of 10 winners were Irish bred, though they have represented 54.1% of the total runners.
Only 2 of the 25 GB bred horses have made the frame.

Weight


horses carrying 10-8 or more: 7-17-77
horses carrying less than 10-8: 3-12-82
horses racing from out of the handicap: 1-1-19
Top weights: 12491528P1 (3-3-10) have gained 3 wins and 3 places from 10 runners.

Official Ratings


horses rated 140 or higher: 4-10-37
horses rated 126 to 139: 6-14-91
horses rated 125 or lower: 0-5-31
Higher rated horses have fared best recently, with the last 6 winners were all officially rated 135 or higher.
horses rated 135 or higher: 7-15-77
horses rated 134 or lower: 3-14-82

Recent/Past Form


6 of 10 winners won on their last run over fences
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 127+ on last chase start
7 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days (3 exceptions had last run in cross country race at Cheltenham at November or December meeting)
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season


9 of 10 winners had run 11+ times over fences (exception had run in 7 chases & 5 point to points)
9 of 10 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception had won over 2M 6F and had been placed in 3 of 4 runs over CD)
6 of 10 winners had won or placed over this CD (2 exceptions having first course start and other 2 failed to complete on only run on the Cross Country course)
5 of 8 Irish-trained winners had run over hurdles that season (3 exceptions had run in a point to point)

Other Races
Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase winner (Any Currency): 1461P38 (2-2-7)
Rehearsal Chase winner (Hey Big Spender): 0 (0-0-1)
6 of 10 winners had run in the Glenfarclas Handicap Chase in December, finishing 13F17RO
4 of 10 winners ran in the Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase, finishing 1112
4 of 10 winners had run in the Glenfarclas Chase at November meeting, finishing 1231
2 of 10 winners ran in the La Touche Cup, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in Showcase Trophy, finishing 11 (both Balthazar King)
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Aintree Grand National, finishing 50
5 of 10 winners ran in a chase at previous Cheltenham Festival (3 Cross Country, 1 4M NH novice Chase & 1 Foxhunters)
4 of 10 winners ran in a banks race at previous year's Punchestown Festival (3 won and other was 4th)

Trainers


Irish trained runners: 8-21-80
British trained runners: 2-8-77
French-trained runners: 0-0-2
Irish trainers (8-21-81) have won 8 of the 10 runnings & filled almost 75% of the places from approximately 50.3% of the total runners, which compares very well to British trainers (2-8-77). The only British-trained horse to win this has been Balthazar King.
Enda Bolger (4-8-28) dominated this race in its early days, winning 4 of the first 5 runnings, however he has filled just 2 places from 15 runners in last 5 years.
Philip Hobbs (2-2-9) trained Balthazar King to win this in 2012 & 2014.
Gordon Elliot (0-1-2), Martin Keighley (0-1-2) & Willie Mullins (0-1-7) have each saddled the runner-up in this race.
Paul Nicholls (0-1-13) has seen just 1 of his 13 runners make the frame.

Jockeys


Nina Carberry (3-2-8) has ridden 3 of the 10 winners of this.
Richard Johnson (2-0-5) has ridden Balthazar King to victory twice.
Adrian Heskin (1-2-5), Andrew Lynch (1-1-5), & Davy Russell (1-1-6) have each ridden winner and a placed finisher while Barry Cash (1-0-2) rode the winner in 2013.
Andrew MacNamara (0-2-2) & Robbie Power (0-2-3) have been each ridden a couple of placed finishers.

Price


8 of 10 winners were priced 13/2 or below and came from the first 3 in the betting
A New Story (2010) & Big Shu (2013) have been the 2 longer priced winners and 19 of the 39 places have been filled by horses priced 12/1 or bigger.
Favourites (2-2-10) have won 2 of the 10 runnings giving a level stakes loss of 2.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 9 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 8 to 10 (or aged 11+ that has won/placed in the race before)
- Carrying 10-8 or more
- Officially rated 135+
- Won last chase start (posting RPR of 127+)
- Had 2 to 5 runs this season
- Had run in past 40 days (or had last run in X-Country race at November/December meeting)
- Run at least 11 times over fences
- Run in no more than 11 handicap chases
- Won over 3M+
- Run over hurdles (or won a point to point) this season (if trained in Ireland)
- Won or placed in Cross Country Chases at November/December meetings
- Finished in first 2 Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase
- Ran in a chase at 2014 Cheltenham Festival or in the Aintree Grand Natioanl
- Won a banks race at the 2014 Punchestown Festival
- Trained in Ireland or by Philip Hobbs
- Ridden by Nina Carberry, Richard Johnson, Adrian Heskin, Andrew Lynch or Davy Russell
- From first 3 in the betting.

[ganjaman2]

CORAL CUP TRENDS 2015




The Coral Cup is a grade 3 handicap hurdle run over 2M 5F and is the main handicap of day 2 of the Festival. Always a tricky race to work out, the trends for the past 10 runnings seem to point to a younger less exposed horse that has won recently:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 3-10-57
6yo: 4-7-71
7yo: 1-5-54
8yo: 1-5-43
9yo: 1-1-27
10yo+: 0-2-20
horses aged 5 or 6 have a combined record of 7-17-128.
horses aged 7 or older have a combined record of 3-13-144.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 10-10 or more: 7-20-162
horses carrying 10-9 or less: 3-10-110
In the last 10 years horses carrying 10-10 or more gained 7 wins and filled 27 of 40 places.
Top Weight: 03102007P2P0P (1-3-13)

Official Ratings
horses rated 140 or higher: 6-11-91
horses rated 130 to 139: 3-18-150
horses rated 129 or lower: 1-1-31
In past 6 years, horses officially rated 140 or higher have won 5 of 6 renewals.
horses racing from out of the handicap: 0-2-17. It’s not surprising that horses rated 129 or lower have such a poor record as many have had to race from well out of the handicap.

Recent/Past Form


7 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out (2 of 3 others did so on penultimate start)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 2 runs
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 137+ in last 2 runs
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
8 of 10 winners had previously run in 5 to 9 hurdles races
10 of 10 winners had previously won 2 to 4 hurdles races


9 of 10 winners had won 1 or 2 hurdles races that season


10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better hurdle
8 of 10 winners had won hurdles race worth 11K+
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 2F+
8 of 10 winners had run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap hurdle (exception had won 2)
8 of 10 winners were second season hurdlers

Other Races


Grech Family Handicap Hurdle winner (Kilcooley): 1 (1-0-1)
Welsh Champion Hurdle winner (Silsol): 1 (1-0-1)
Citipost Novices' Hurdle winner (Garde La Victoire): 01 (1-0-2)
Lanzarote Hurdle winner (Tea For Two): 04 (0-1-2)
Holloway's Hurdle winner (Baradari): 3000 (0-1-4)
Totesport Supporting The Sport You Love Handicap Hurdle winner (On Tour): 00 (0-0-2)
Betfred Mobile Handicap Hurdle winner (Dawalan): 0P (0-0-2)
National Spirit Hurdle winner (Kilcooley): 08 (0-0-2)
Heroes Handicap Hurdle winner (Invicta Lake): 060 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Welsh Champion Hurdle last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in previous season's Citipost Novice Hurdle, finishing 61
2 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Hurdle, finishing 60
2 of 10 winners ran in Grech Family Handicap Hurdle, finishing 19
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners won a 2M 2F Fairyhouse non-handicap hurdle in December

Racing Tactics


5 of 10 winners raced prominently
4 of 10 winners raced in midfield
1 of 10 winners were held up in rear

Trainers


Irish trained runners (3-8-51) have a strong record in this having won 4 of the last 12 runnings.
Nicky Henderson (2-2-25) trained the winner in 2010 & 2014, both at 14/1. He also had a 5th in 2011 & 2013 and 3rd in 2012.
Alan King (1-2-14) trained the 1-2 in 2013.
Gordon Elliot (1-1-6) trained the winner in 2011 and the third in 2014.
Donald McCain (1-0-4), Dr. Richard Newland (1-0-4) and Venetia Williams (1-0-8) have all trained one of the past 10 winners of the race.
Trainers that have saddled a couple of placed finishers since 2005 include Nick Williams (0-2-4), Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-7), Paul Nicholls (0-2-11) & David Pipe (0-2-15).
Willie Mullins (0-2-11) has saddled 2 placed finishers from 11 runners, 5 went off 10/1 or shorter (including 2 favourites).
Philip Hobbs (0-1-13) has trained the winner in 2000 & 2004 but gained just 1 place from last 13 runners.

Price


8 of 10 winners have been priced 13/2 to 16/1.
The 2 major shocks in past 10 years were Idole First (2005) & Medinas (2013), both at 33/1.
Favourites (0-1-11) have a very poor recent record, with their last win coming back in 2003.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 or 6


- Carrying 10-10 or more


- Officially rated 140 to 153


- Run at least twice this season (winning 1 or 2 hurdles races)


- Finished in first 2 last time


- Posted a career higher RPR of 137+ in last 2 runs


- Won over 2M 2F+


- Won a class 3 or better hurdle (worth 11K+)


- Previous run in 5 to 9 hurdles races (winning 2 to 4)


- Second season hurdler


- Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 1)


- Trained by Nicky Henderson, Alan King or in Ireland (ideally by Gordon Elliot).

[ganjaman2]

FRED WINTER HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2015




One of the newer races of the Festival, the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle was first run in 2005 as a listed handicap hurdle but was made into a grade 3 in 2009.





Below we take a look at the trends for the previous 10 runnings:





Age
Race for 4yos

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 11-0 or more: 5-21-125
horses carrying 10-13 or less: 5-9-110
2 of 5 winners to carry less than 11-0 were carrying a winner’s penalty.
2 of 5 winners to carry less than 11-0 were ridden by a 5lb claimer.
Since the race was upgraded to grade 3, 4 of 6 winners carried 10-8 or less.
horses carrying a penalty: 1001 (2-0-4)
Top weight: 4742602060(0-4-10)

Official Ratings


horses rated 131 or higher: 1-11-64
horses rated 124 to 130: 8-14-103
horses rated 123 or less: 1-5-68
8 of 10 winners have been officially rated 124 to 130
What A Charm in 2011 was the only winner to be rated below 124 and he was a classy flat type, having finished 2nd in a listed race and in the Irish Cesarewitch off 95.

Breeding


Irish Bred: 5-6-83
French Bred: 4-13-70
British Bred: 1-7-60
German bred: 0-2-7
USA bred: 0-2-14
Italian bred: 0-0-1
9 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 2 in a group 1 on flat



Recent/Past Form


5 of 10 winners won last time out (4 of 5 exceptions unplaced in grade 1 or 2)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 117+ in last 2 hurdles runs
9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times over hurdles in GB & Ireland
10 of 10 winners had run since 1st February
10 of 10 winners ran run in no more than one h'cap hurdle (8 were making h'cap debut and other 2 won their only handicap hurdle start)
7 of 10 winners had run on the flat (3 exceptions began their racing career in a bumper or hurdle in France)
5 of 5 winners to have raced on flat in GB&Ire were rated 79+ (3 of 5 had contested a group or listed race)
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners had yet to win over hurdles

Other Races


Imperial Cup winner: 12 (1-1-2)
Molson Coors Juvenile Hurdle winner (Starchitect): 1 (1-0-1)
32Red Chatteris Fen Juvenile Hurdle winner (Arabian Revolution): 2 (0-1-1)
Share.com Invest For The Future Juvenile Hurdle winner (Baron Alco): 00 (0-0-2)
32Red On The App Store Juvenile Hurdle winner (Bidourey): 00 (0-0-2)
Blackmore Building Juvenile Hurdle winner (Zarib): 00 (0-0-2)
Irish Field 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle winner (Vercingetorix): 85 (0-0-2)
Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Juvenile Hurdle winner (Brook): 000 (0-0-3)
32Red On The App Store Juvenile Hurdle winner (Arabian Revolution): 008 (0-0-3)
William Hill - In App Store Juvenile Hurdle winner (Officer Drivel): 707 (0-0-3)
3 of 7 British-trained winners had won a Sandown hurdle
2 of 7 British-trained winners won a Taunton hurdle
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Victor Ludorem Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 16
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Spring Juvenile last time, finishing 55
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners had contested a graded hurdle at Leopardstown

Trainers


David Pipe (1-4-11) won this in 2007 and has seen 5 of his 11 runners make the frame.
Paul Nicholls (1-4-13) won this in 2010 and also saddled the 2nd & 3rd in 2013 and 2nd & 4th in 2014.
Gordon Elliot (1-1-5) saddled a placed finisher in 2011 and the winner in 2013.
Nicky Henderson (1-0-10) trained Une Artiste to win this in 2012 at 40/1.
Alan King (0-5-17) has saddled 5 places, including 2nd & 3rd in 2010 and 3rd in 2011.
Gary Moore (0-2-8) has gained 2 places while Tim Vaughan (0-1-2) & Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-2) have each had one runner get placed.
Jonjo O'Neill (0-0-5), Philip Hobbs (0-0-7), Venetia Williams (0-0-8) & Willie Mullins (0-0-9) have seen their collective 29 runners all finish unplaced.
Irish trained horses (3-7-61) have a fair record in the race, having won 3 of the 10 runnings from approximately 26% of total runners.

Price


No strong price trends to go on here. 5 of the 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 14/1 though the other 5 winners were sent off 40/1, 20/1, 40/1, 25/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (2-4-12) have won 2 of 10 renewals, giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.




Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Carrying 10-8 or less and/or carrying a penalty
- Officially rated 124 to 130
- Sired by a horse that finished in first 2 in group 1
- French or Irish bred
- Won last time out or unplaced in a graded hurdle
- Posted an RPR of 117+ in last 2 starts
- Ran in past 45 days
- Run 1 to 3 times over hurdles in Ire or GB
- Run in no more than 1 handicap hurdle (ideally making h’cap debut)
- Won a hurdle at Sandown, Taunton or ran in Victor Ludorem Juvenile Hurdle
- Run on the flat or began career in a French NH race
- Officially rated 79 or higher on the flat
- Irish-trained that contested a graded hurdle at Leopardstown
- Trained by David Pipe, Paul Nicholls or Gordon Elliot.