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    Info day 3 cheltenham 2015 trends

    Ryanair Chase


    JLT Novices' Chase


    Pertemps Final Handicap


    World Hurdle


    Byrne Group Plate


    Kim Muir Challenge


    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WORLD HURDLE TRENDS 2015




    The Ladbrokes World Hurdle (formerly the Stayers’ Hurdle) is the highlight of the third day of the Cheltenham Festival. Won by some absolutely fantastic horses since 2000, including Baracouda, Inglis Drever and Big Buck’s, this year’s renewal looks more open with defending champion, More Of That, having failed to sparkle on his first run this season.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 0-2-7
    6yo: 4-8-31
    7yo: 1-4-37
    8yo: 2-1-28
    9yo: 3-3-20
    10yo: 0-2-8
    11yo+: 0-0-7
    10 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9
    No horse aged 5 has ever won it, though 3 of last 8 five year olds to run in it have placed.
    Prior to Solwhit’s win in 2013 (aged 9), the previous four horses aged 9+ to have won it were all previous World Hurdle winners.

    Breeding


    French Bred: 6-9-51
    British Bred: 3-1-20
    Irish Bred: 1-10-59
    Other: 0-0-8
    French & GB bred horses have won 9 of last 10 and only represented 51.4% of total runners.
    Irish-bred horses had not won the race since 2000 before they filled the first 3 places in 2014.

    Recent/Past Form


    10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season


    10 of 10 winners finished in the first two on all hurdles starts that season


    9 of 10 winners won last time out (1 exception finished 2nd in Cleeve Hurdle last time)
    8 of 10 winners attained an RPR of at least 161 last time (2 exceptions posted RPR's of 150+)
    7 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days (2 of 3 exceptions had won the previous year's race)
    9 of 10 winners had run at least 8 times over hurdles (exception was unbeaten in 4 career starts)
    6 of 10 winners had won over course and distance (1 exception had won over 2M4F on only Cheltenham start and another was having first course start)
    7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (3 exceptions, Inglis Drever, Solwhit & More Of That, had won a grade 1 or 2 over 2M 4F and were having first try at 3M+)
    7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (2 exceptions had finished 2nd in a grade 1 & other was an unbeaten grade 2 winner)
    10 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle that season

    Other Races
    Defending World Hurdle winner (More Of That): 21111 (4-1-5)
    Highest placed finisher from previous year to return: 2521411130 (4-3-10)
    Long Distance Hurdle winner (Medinas): 2111110 (5-1-7)
    Long Walk Hurdle winner (Reve De Sivola): 2120211148 (4-3-9)
    Cleeve Hurdle winner (Saphir Du Rheu): 43117214 (3-2-8)
    Liverpool Hurdle winner (Whisper): 28111 (3-1-5)
    Relkeel Hurdle winner (Rock On Ruby): 3F5P1 (1-1-5)
    Rendlesham Hurdle winner: 16P8244 (1-1-7)
    Limestone Lad Hurdle winner (Kitten Rock): 5P16 (1-0-4)
    Christmas Hurdle winner (Lieutenant Colonel): P332 (0-3-4)
    Boyne Hurdle winner: 2P230 (0-3-5)
    Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle winner (Thousand Stars): 32P (0-2-3)
    Lismullen Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 2 (0-1-1)
    Previous season's Slaney Novice Hurdle winner (Briar Hill): 3 (0-1-1)
    Betfair "This is in play" Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle winner (Aubusson): 28 (0-1-2)
    Sefton Novice Hurdle winner (Beat That): F703 (0-1-4)
    Hattons Grace Hurdle winner (Lieutenant Colonel): 662P (0-1-4)
    Dornan Engineering Hurdle winner (Rock On Ruby): 4P52 (0-1-4)
    Galmoy Hurdle winner (Dedigout): P6035 (0-1-5)
    Coolmore NH Sires Fame And Glory & Sans Frontieres Novice Hurdle winner (First Lieutenant): 66 (0-0-2)
    5 of 10 winners ran in the Long Distance Hurdle, finishing 11111
    4 of 10 winners ran in previous World Hurdle, finishing 1111
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Long Walk Hurdle, finishing 1111
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 2111
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Liverpool Hurdle, finishing 3111
    2 of 10 winners ran in Mersey Novice Hurdle, finishing 42

    Trainers


    Paul Nicholls (4-1-13) has won 4 renewals between 2009 & 2012 with Big Buck’s and saddled Celestial Halo to finish runner-up in 2013. If you exclude Big Buck’s, his record in the race becomes: 0-1-8.
    Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-9) trained More Of That to win this last year and Iris’ Gift to win it in 2004.
    Willie Mullins (0-3-15) has just 3 places from 15 runners in last 10 renewals, however his record with runners priced shorter than 10/1 is 1 second, 2 thirds and a fourth from 4 runners.
    Rebecca Curtis (0-1-1) saddled At Fishers Cross to finish 3rd last year.
    Nicky Henderson (0-1-9) won the race in 2000 but has filled just 1 place from 9 runners since 2005. The Pipe Stable (0-1-9) has also managed just 1 place from 9 runners in that period.

    Irish trained runners (1-8-38) won the race in 2013 for first time since 1995. Before Solwhit’s, the previous 4 Irish based winners had their prep run in the Boyne Hurdle but in recent years the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, the Hatton’s Grace and the Galmoy Hurdle have produced Ireland’s main prospects for this.

    Price


    10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
    The longest priced winner of this race since 2000 has been 17/2.
    Favourite (4-3-10) has only won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 2.05.






    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 6 to 8 (or a previous winner of the World Hurdle)


    - French or British bred


    - Previously run at least 8 times over hurdles (or unbeaten over hurdles)


    - 2nd or 3rd season hurdler (or a previous winner)


    - Run 2 to 4 times this season, finishing in first 2 on all runs


    - Achieved RPR of 161+ on last start


    - Won over 3M+ (or a graded winner over 2M 4F+ & having first try at 3M+)


    - Previous Cheltenham winner (ideally over this course and distance)


    - Won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle this season


    - Previously finished in first 2 in a grade 1 hurdle (ideally won)


    - Finished in the first 2 in last year’s race


    - Finished in first 2 in Cleeve, Long Distance and/or Long Walk Hurdle


    - Finished in first 4 in Liverpool or Mersey Novice Hurdle at 2014 Aintree Festival


    - Trained in Great Britain


    - From first 4 in the betting.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: day 3 cheltenham 2015 trends

    RYANAIR CHASE TRENDS 2015




    The Ryanair Chase was introduced to the Festival in 2005 as a grade 2 chase over 2M 5F for horses whose best trip fell between the Champion Chase and Gold Cup distances. It became a grade 1 chase in 2008 and has grown stronger each year. It makes up part of the supporting card to the World Hurdle on the Thursday and in recent years the King George at Kempton have provided the key clues for this.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the 10 previous runnings:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 1-2-5
    7yo: 1-4-11
    8yo: 3-6-30
    9yo: 2-5-32
    10yo: 3-2-17
    11yo+: 0-1-11
    No very strong trends on the age of the winner in this race though all three 10yo winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a Ryanair or RSA Chase at a previous Festival.
    6 of 8 horses aged 6 or 7 to make the frame were French Bred.

    Breeding




    Irish bred: 5-9-57
    French bred: 3-10-32
    British bred: 2-1-12
    Other: 0-0-5
    No strong trends here.

    Recent/Past Form


    10 of 10 winners had 1 to 4 runs that season
    7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (3 exceptions unplaced in King George)
    7 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 154+ on their last chase start
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 158+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed chase starts


    9 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 over 2M4F-5F))
    6 of 10 winners had won a graded chase at Cheltenham (2 of 4 exceptions had finished 2nd in previous year's Arkle or JLT)
    5 of 10 winners had won or been placed in the Paddy Power or Boylesports Gold Cups
    10 of 10 winners had won a graded race
    Since race became a grade 1, 6 of 7 winners had won a grade 1 chase & other had won Paddy Power Gold Cup
    10 of 10 winners were officially rated 152+
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 2M 5F or further

    Other races


    Defending Ryanair winner (Dynaste): P124 (1-1-4)
    Highest placed finisher to return: 161P5124 (3-1-8)
    Record of placed runners from previous year: 191U56495P (2-0-10)
    Ascot Chase winner: 94211 (2-1-5)
    Previous season's Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase winner (Taquin De Seuil): F11 (2-0-3)
    Melling Chase winner (Boston Bob): 6251 (1-1-4)
    Amlin 1965 Chase winner (Al Ferof): 15 (1-0-2)
    Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Caid Du Berlais): 97198 (1-0-5)
    Old Roan Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 323 (0-3-3)
    Red Mills Chase winner: 3335 (0-3-4)
    Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Champagne Fever): 32 (0-2-2)
    Marie Curie Cancer Care Handicap Chase winner (John's Spirit): 2 (0-1-1)
    Kinloch Brae Chase winner (Don Cossack): 3 (0-1-1)
    Charlie Hall Chase winner (Menorah): 24 (0-1-2)
    Rewards4Racing Novice H'cap Chase winner (Present View): 73 (0-1-2)
    Future Champion Novice Chase winner (Eduard): 443 (0-1-3)
    Peterborough Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 5356647P (0-1-8)
    Previous year's Jewson Novice Chase winner (Taquin De Seuil): PP (0-0-2)
    Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase winner (Twinlight): 6P (0-0-2)
    John Durkan Memorial Chase winner (Don Cossack): 655 (0-0-3)
    Highest placed finisher from Paddy Power Gold Cup: 191719482 (3-1-9)
    Highest placed finisher from December Gold Cup: 1F21243 (2-3-7)
    Highest placed finisher from King George: 535127145 (2-2-9)
    6 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 266P55
    4 of 10 winners ran in that season's Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 24F1 (none of last 5 have though)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Chase, finishing 3211
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 221
    3 of 10 winners ran in that season's December Gold Cup, finishing 3B2
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Bowl, finishing 33
    2 of 10 winners ran in Amlin Chase, finishing 1F
    3 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 1U1
    2 of 5 second season chaser winners (last 2) ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 21
    In the first 3 years of this race the Paddy Power and December Gold Cups had been the key races though since this became a grade 1 in 2008, 6 of 7 winners had run in that season’s King George (exception was 2nd in previous season’s King George).
    Since this became a grade 1 record of horses that ran in the King George: 61P21741174541051 (6-1-17)


    Three horse that placed in Paddy Power Gold off marks of 150+ were Hidden Cylcone (2nd in 2014), Poquelin (2nd in 2010) & Fondmort (1st in 2006). John’s Spirit was 2nd in this season’s Paddy Power Gold Cup off 156.

    Trainers


    Nicky Henderson (2-2-12) & Paul Nicholls (2-2-14) have both gained 2 wins and 2 places in this race.
    Jonjo O’Neill (2-1-4) & David Pipe (2-1-4) has each saddled 2 winners and 1 place from 4 runners in this.
    Colin Tizzard (1-0-2) & Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-3) have both won this once.
    Alan King (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 runners make the frame.
    Irish trained runners (0-7-28) are still waiting for their first win in this race.
    Shark Hanlon (0-1-1), Mouse Morris (0-1-2), Sandra Hughes yard (0-1-2) & Willie Mullins (0-1-6) have each saddled a placed finisher in past 6 years.

    Price


    9 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or below and came from the first 3 in the betting.
    Albertas Run in 2010 at 14/1 has been the only double-figure priced winner of this.
    Favourites (3-4-11) have won 3 of the 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 0.67.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 8 to 10 (or a French bred 6 or 7yo)
    - Had 1 to 4 runs since October
    - Finished in first 3 last time (or ran in the King George)
    - Achieved RPR of 154+ on last chase run
    - Posted an RPR of 158+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed starts
    - Won over 2M 5F+
    - Previously won a graded chase at Cheltenham
    - Previously won a grade 1 chase
    - Officially rated 152+
    - Second season chaser that won Berkshire and/or Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase
    - Ran in the King George this season (ideally finishing in first 6)
    - Finished in first 3 in last year’s Ryanair
    - Finished in first 3 in Ascot Chase last time out
    - Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill or David Pipe
    - From first 3 in the betting (6/1 or below).

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (30th January 2015) 


  3. #3
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    Default Re: day 3 cheltenham 2015 trends

    JLT NOVICE CHASE 2015




    The first race on day 3 is one of the newest races added to the Festival, the JLT Novice Chase, run over 2M 4F for novice chasers. It was first run in 2011 and Irish-based horses took the first 3 runnings before Taquin De Seuil won it for home team last year.





    With only 4 previous runnings to go on, there is a huge amount of data to go on for trends:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 0-0-3
    6yo: 1-1-14
    7yo: 3-5-19
    8yo: 0-2-7
    9yo+: 0-0-3
    7yos have won 3 of 4 and filled 8 of 12 places, though have represented over 41% of total runners.

    Breeding


    French Bred: 2-2-17
    Irish Bred: 1-5-24
    German Bred: 1-0-3
    British Bred: 0-1-2

    Recent/Past Form
    4 of 4 winners finished in first 2 in a grade 1 or 2 last time out
    4 of 4 winners posted an RPR of 150+ last time out
    4 of 4 winners had last run between 45 and 55 days ago
    4 of 4 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases
    4 of 4 winners had won over 2M 4F
    3 of 4 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (exception 2nd in grade 1 chases on last 2 starts)
    4 of 4 winners had run 3 to 11 hurdles
    4 of 4 winners were rated 140+ over hurdles
    The 4 winners had run in a combined 16 chases, finishing 1st or 2nd in 14 of those 16 (2 other runs were 3rd & 4th in grade 1 company).

    Other Races


    Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase winner (Champagne West): 21 (1-1-2)
    Porter & Co Beginners Chase winner (Apache Stronghold): 1 (1-0-1)
    Previous season's Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Vautour): 1 (1-0-1)
    Boylesports Irish Grand National At Fairyhouse Beginners Chase winner (Adrian Des Mottes): 1 (1-0-1)
    Irish Arkle winner (Une De Sceaux): 1 (1-0-1)
    Killiney Novice Chase winner (Vautour): 17F (1-0-3)
    Shannon Airport Novice Chase winner (Gilgamboa): 710 (1-0-3)
    Dipper Novice Chase winner (Ptit Zig): 2F (0-1-2)
    Scilly Isles Novice Chase winner (Gitane De Berlais): 35F (0-1-3)
    Ryman Stationer Novice Chase winner (Champagne West): 6F (0-0-2)
    2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Irish Arkle last time, finishing 21
    2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing 24
    4 of 4 winners ran in a hurdles race at previous year's Cheltenham Festival (1 County, 1 Neptune, 1 Supreme & 1 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys)

    Trainers


    Irish trained runners (3-1-14) have won 3 of 4 runnings of this race.
    Tony Martin (1-0-1) & Willie Mullins (1-0-7) have both trained the winner of this.
    Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-2-3) has trained a placed finisher in each of last 2 runnings.
    Henry De Bromhead (0-1-2) & Philip Hobbs (0-1-2) trained the 2nd & 3rd in the first running.
    Paul Nicholls (0-0-4) & Nicky Henderson (0-0-6) have failed to saddle 1 placed finisher from a combined 10 runners.

    Price


    The 4 winners have been priced 4/1, 3/1, 20/1 & 7/1, 2 of them were second favourites.
    Favourites (0-2-4) have filled the runners-up spot twice, show a level stakes loss of 4.00.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from 4 previous runnings you are looking for a horse:


    - 7yos do well


    - Run in 3 to 5 chases this season
    - Never finished out of the first 2 over fences
    - Finished 1st or 2nd in a graded chase last time & posted an RPR of 150+ in the process
    - Had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (or 2nd in a grade 1)
    - Had won over 2M 4F
    - Run in 3 to 11 hurdles & officially rated 140+ over hurdles
    - Ran in a hurdle at the 2014 Festival
    - Trained in Ireland
    - Ran in the Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (11th February 2015) 


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    Default Re: day 3 cheltenham 2015 trends

    PERTEMPS NETWORK FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2015




    The second race on day 3 is the Pertemps Network Final, which is a listed handicap hurdle run over 3 miles. horses not quite thought good enough for the World Hurdle often take their place in this. It has thrown up a few shocks since 2004 (including two 50/1 winners), though Fingal Bay was a successful favourite last year.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 0-5-20
    6yo: 2-6-51
    7yo: 1-6-56
    8yo: 4-9-51
    9yo: 2-1-22
    10yo: 1-1-16
    11yo+: 0-2-18
    horses aged 5 to 7: 3-15-127
    horses aged 8 or older: 7-15-107
    The only horse aged 10+ to win this was Buena Vista in 2011 after he had won the race in 2010 and finished 2nd in 2009.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


    horses carrying 10-10 or more: 4-12-114
    horses carrying 10-9 or less: 6-18-120
    Between 2005 & 2012, 7 of 8 winners carried 10-11 or less, however in the past 2 years the first 4 home all carried 11-0+, though the vast majority of the runners were allotted at least 11 stone.
    Top Weight: 8300908040P01 (1-2-13)

    Official Ratings


    horses rated 143 to 160: 1-6-44
    horses rated 129 to 142: 8-20-164
    horses rated 128 or lower: 1-4-26
    In the past 4 years, all 4 winners and 15 of 16 places were filled by horses rated 136 to 148.

    Recent/Past Form


    10 of 10 winners had their last run between 20 to 61 days ago
    9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 7 times that season (exception won only start that season)
    7 of 10 winners had previously run in 6 to 10 hurdles race (2 of 3 exceptions finished 1st or 2nd in previous renewal)
    10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 5 hurdles races
    7 of 10 winner had run in 1 to 4 handicap hurdles (2 of 3 exceptions finished in first 2 in previous Pertemps)
    9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles (exception had won 3)
    8 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher hurdle (2 exceptions 2nd in a graded hurdle)
    7 of 10 winners (last 5) had finished in first 3 in a graded hurdle
    8 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+ (2 exceptions had finished 2nd over 3M+)
    8 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in a NH race (2 exceptions rated 71 to 79 on the flat)
    Only 2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham before (3 having first course start)

    Other races


    Record of first 5 from Betfair This Is Play Fixed Brush H’cap Hurdle: 610P110 (3-0-7)
    Record of first 6 from previous year’s Pertemps: 00840025101P005 (2-2-15)
    Record of first 4 from Carlisle Pertemps Qualifier: 40432 (0-4-5)
    Record of highest placed finisher from Leopardstown Pertemps Qualifier: 1230822280 (1-5-10)
    Exeter Pertemps Qualifier winner (Regal Encore): 1 (1-0-1)
    Coral Proud Sponsors of British Racing Handicap Hurdle winner (Alwayswiththegreys): 01U0 (1-0-4)
    Haydock Pertemps Qualifier winner (Bygones Sovereign): P01F0 (1-0-5)
    Leopardstown Pertemps Qualifier winner (Usuel Smurfer): 3082 (0-2-4)
    BetBright Casino Handicap Hurdle winner (Rolling Maul): 84 (0-1-2)
    Kempton Pertemps Qualifier winner (Brother Brian): 00 (0-0-2)
    Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Hurdle winner (Katkeau): 00 (0-0-2)
    Wincanton Pertemps Qualifier winner (Batavir): 000 (0-0-3)
    Warwick Pertemps Qualifier winner (Join The Clan): 000P60 (0-0-6)
    3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in Betfair This is Play Fixed Brush H'cap Hurdle, finishing 552
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous Pertemps H'cap Hurdle, finishing 621
    2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in the Leopardstown Pertemps Qualifier, both finishing 11th
    2 of 10 winners (2 of last 5) ran in the Citipost H'cap Hurdle here, finishing 07
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Heroes Handicap Hurdle, finishing 07
    2 of 10 winners ran in Haydock Pertemps Qualifier last time, finishing 14

    Racing Tactics


    8 of 10 winners led or raced prominently
    Two others were settled in midfield.

    Trainers


    David Pipe (2-2-17) has trained Buena Vista to win this in 2010 & 2011.
    Venetia Williams (1-1-6) & Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-12) have both saddled a winner & placed finisher in past 10 years.
    Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-18) trained the winner in 2003, 2004 and 2013.
    Philip Hobbs (1-0-12) trained Fingal Bay to win this last year.
    Willie Mullins (0-2-3), Alan King (0-2-7) & Paul Nicholls (0-2-10) have each bagged a couple of places since 2005.
    Tim Easterby (0-1-1), Suzy Smith (0-1-1) & Richard Newland (0-1-3) have each saddled 1 placed finisher in last 10 runnings.
    Irish trained runners (2-8-47) have a fair record in this having won 2 of the last 10 and filling 25% of the places from approximately 20% of the total runners. 9 of 10 Irish-trained runners to make frame had run in Leopardstown Pertemps Qualifier.

    Price


    No massively significant trend with regard to prices though 7 of last 8 winners went off between 14/1 & 25/1.
    Beware of backing any horse at single-figure odds in this, as in the past 10 years only 5 of the 35 runners priced shorter than 10/1 have made the places, though Fingal Bay did win it last year at 9/2.
    Favourites (1-1-11) have won just 1 of the last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 6 to 9 (ideally 8 or 9)


    - Officially rated 136 to 148


    - Had last run between 20 and 61 days ago


    - Run 3 to 7 times this season


    - Won a class 3 or higher hurdle (or placed in a graded hurdle)


    - Run 6 to 10 times over hurdles (winning 1 to 5)


    - Run in 2 to 4 handicap hurdles (or finished in first 2 in this race in 2014)


    - Won no more than 2 handicap hurdles


    - Won over 2M 7F+


    - NH bred or rated over 70 on the flat


    - Finished in first 5 in Betfair Fixed Brush H’cap Hurdle and/or Pertemps Qualifier at Haydock


    - Highest placed finisher from Leopardstown Pertemps Qualifier does well


    - Trained by David Pipe, Jonjo O’Neill or Venetia Williams


    - Tends to race prominently


    - Priced 14/1 to 25/1.

  5. #5
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    Default Re: day 3 cheltenham 2015 trends

    BROWN ADVISORY & MERRIEBELLE STABLE PLATE TRENDS 2015.




    The fifth race of day 3 is the Brown Advisory & Merriebell Stable Plate, a grade 3 handicap chase run over 2 miles 5 furlongs. This race has had many different names in the past including the Mildmay of Flete, Festival Plate and Racing Post Plate. Trainers who have done well in it recently have been Nicky Henderson, David Pipe and Venetia Williams, who have scooped 8 of the last 10 renewals between them.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 0-1-4
    6yo: 2-3-21
    7yo: 1-3-37
    8yo: 4-12-65
    9yo: 1-4-43
    10yo: 1-4-32
    11yo+: 1-3-23
    horses aged 5 to 8 have a combined record of 7-19-127
    horses aged 9 or older have a combined record of 3-11-98
    Last 3 winners aged 10+ were bred in GB.

    Breeding


    Irish bred: 4-12-92
    French bred: 4-11-75
    British bred: 2-7-49
    Other: 0-0-9
    12 of 15 French bred horses to make the frame were aged 5 to 8
    9 of 9 British bred horses to make the frame were aged 8 to 13
    11 of 16 Irish bred horses to make the frame were aged 8 to 10 (5 exceptions aged 6 or 7)

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


    horses carrying 10-13 or more: 2-13-89
    horses carrying 10-5 to 10-12: 6-11-83
    horses carrying 10-4 or lower: 2-6-53
    8 of 10 winners (last 6) were allotted 10-4 to 10-12.
    In past 6 years the first 3 home all carried 11-1 or less.
    Top Weight: F670PP000547 (0-1-12) has a poor record in this.
    horses carrying a penalty: F70F7100 (1-0-8)
    horses racing from out of the handicap (0-1-7) have gained 1 place from 7 runners though no runner racing from more than 5lbs out of the handicap has made the frame since 2000.

    Jockeys (claiming weight)
    In recent years, having a good claimer on your horse has proven a big advantage:
    Claimers: 4-2-41
    Non-claiming jockeys: 6-28-184
    4 of 10 winners were ridden by jockeys claiming an allowance. Claimers rode just 18.2% of the total runners and backing all horses ridden by claimers in this race since 2005 would have yielded a profit of £64.00 to a £1 stake.

    Official Ratings


    horses rated 148 or higher: 0-3-25
    horses rated 136 to 147: 7-12-112
    horses rated 135 or less: 3-15-88
    In past 10 years, horses officially rated 130 to 140 have won 8 of 10 runnings & filled 24 of 40 places.
    horses rated 141 or higher: 1-10-76
    horses rated 140 or less: 9-20-149

    Recent/Past Form


    8 of 10 winners finished in first 5 on last completed start (2 exceptions ran just once that season)
    9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 136+ in last 3 chase starts
    8 of 10 winners had run 3 to 7 times that season (2 exceptions ran once)
    8 of 10 winners had run in past 45 days
    8 of 10 winners had previously run in 6 to 16 chases
    8 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 times over fences
    9 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicap chases
    9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases in their career
    9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap chase that season
    10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 2½F to 2M 5F
    10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase
    8 of 10 winners had a hurdles rating of 128+
    10 of 10 winners had previously run at Cheltenham (2 had won, 3 had placed, 5 unplaced)

    Other races


    Previous year's winner (Ballynagour): 6 (0-0-1)
    William Hill - Download The App Handicap Chase winner (Lost Legend): 10 (1-0-2)
    Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase winner (Generous Ransom): 22 (0-2-2)
    Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Caid Du Berlais): 4 (0-1-1)
    Marie Curie Care Handicap Chase winner (John's Spirit): 94 (0-1-2)
    Freebets.com Trophy Chase winner (Anacotty): 9 (0-0-1)
    Molson Coors Handicap Chase winners (Lamool): F0 (0-0-2)
    Greatwood Gold Cup winner: F80 (0-0-3)
    Silver Trophy Chase winner (Buywise): PP67 (0-0-4)
    Bet365 Open Handicap Chase winner (No Buts): F0PP (0-0-4)
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Cheltenham Club Novice H’cap Chase, finishing 0F6
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Freebets.com Trophy H'cap Chase, finishing 83
    2 of 10 winners ran in William Hill Download The App H'cap Chase, finishing 31
    The last 2 novice chasers to win this ran in a 2M 6F Fontwell novice chase in January

    Racing Tactics


    8 of 10 winners raced prominently throughout

    Trainers


    Venetia Williams (3-3-17) has trained the winner three times in the last 8 years (12/1, 33/1 & 50/1). She has also saddled 3 runners-up in past 10 years.
    David Pipe (3-1-19) has saddled the winner in 2010, 2012 & 2014 and a placed finisher in 2011.
    Nicky Henderson (2-1-17) trained the winner in 2005 & 2006 but has seen his 11 runners all finish unplaced.
    Sue Smith (1-1-4) trained the 66/1 winner in 2008.
    Jonjo O’Neill (0-3-12), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-2-8), Philip Hobbs (0-2-10) and Paul Nicholls (0-2-16) have each saddled multiple placed finishers since 2005.
    Willie Mullins (0-0-4) and Alan King (0-0-8) have failed to fill 1 place from their collective 12 runners.
    Irish trained runners (0-3-24) have gained 3 places from 24 runners in the past 10 runnings and have not won the race since 1982. Gordon Elliot (0-1-1) has seen his one runner get placed.

    Price


    9 of 10 winners were sent off 12/1 or bigger.
    2012 favourite, Salut Flo, broke the sequence of long-priced winners in this, with every other winner since 2000 going off 12/1 or higher, including winners at 25/1, 33/1, 50/1 & 66/1.
    Favourites (1-5-10) have gained 1 win & 5 places. 2 of the 4 unplaced favourites were fallers.

    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - French bred aged 5 to 8 or
    - British or Irish bred aged 8 to 11
    - Carrying 11-1 or less
    - Officially rated 130 to 140
    - Ridden by a jockey claiming an allowance
    - Not more than 5lbs out of the handicap
    - Finished in first 5 last time out in past 40 days
    - Posted an RPR of 136+ in last 3 chase starts
    - Previously won over 2M 2½F to 2M 5F
    - Run 6 to 16 times over fences (winning 1 to 3 chases)
    - Run in no more than 12 handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
    - Won a class 3 or higher chase
    - Previously run at Cheltenham
    - First 4 in Freebets.com Trophy or William Hill Download The App Handicap Chase
    - Ran in last season’s Rewards4Racing Novice H’cap Chase
    - Hurdles rating of 128+
    - Tends to race prominently
    - Priced 12/1 or bigger
    - Trained by David Pipe, Venetia Williams, Nicky Henderson or Sue Smith.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (24th February 2015) 


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    Default Re: day 3 cheltenham 2015 trends

    KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP TRENDS 2015




    The final race on day 3 is the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup. It’s a handicap chase run over 3M 1½F and is one of the lower class races at the Festival. It is restricted to amateur riders only and having one of the more experience amateurs on board is certainly a big plus for any horse’s chances.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 0-3-17
    7yo: 3-9-48
    8yo: 2-2-60
    9yo: 5-7-48
    10yo: 0-7-29
    11yo+: 0-2-33
    The last 10 winners have been aged 7 to 9, they represented 66.4% of total runners


    horses aged 11+ should be avoided seeing as they have gained no wins and just 2 place from 33 runners in the past 10 renewals.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


    horses carrying 11-3 or more: 6-18-118
    horses carrying 10-10 to 11-2: 4-7-86
    horses carrying 10-9 or less: 0-5-31
    All 10 winners carried 10-10 or more (after claim)
    The last 6 winners of the Kim Muir were allotted a weight of 11-6 or higher.
    Top Weights: 47UP0611P4302P3 (2-5-15) have won 2 of last 6 runnings and both horses to shoulder top weight in 2012 were placed and one top weight finished a close 2nd in 2013 and one finished 3rd in 2014.

    Official Ratings


    horses rated 134 or higher: 6-12-100
    horses rated 133 or lower: 4-18-135
    In recent years the trend has been towards horses with higher official ratings.
    In the last 6 runnings:
    horses rated 134 or higher: 6-12-80
    horses rated 133 or lower: 0-6-62
    The previous ratings ceiling for this race was 140 but that has been raised to 145. The last 6 winners have all been rated within 6lbs of the top weight and in the past 3 runnings 13 of 16 places were filled by horses rated within 6lbs of the top weight.

    Recent/Past Form


    7 of 10 winners finished 6th or worse on their last start (3 others finished 1st or 2nd)
    9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on 1 or both of last 2 chase starts
    10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or higher handicap chase on last run over fences
    10 of 10 winners ran over 3M+ last time out
    7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exceptions had finished 2nd on both runs over 3M+, 1 was placed in previous year's Irish Grand National & other was 2nd in Munster National)
    10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in a chase over 3M+
    9 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in 1 to 7 handicap chases
    10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
    10 of 10 winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chasers (both 1st season chase winners were rated 137+ over hurdles)
    4 of last 6 winners had run in a handicap hurdle in their previous 3 starts that season

    Other Races


    Highest placed finisher from Murphy Group Handicap Chase: 0P3101 (2-1-6)
    Highest placed finisher from previous year's Ultima Business Solutions H'cap Chase: 7P34 (0-2-4)
    Highest placed finisher from previous year: F09962P5 (0-1-8)
    2 of 10 winners ran in Murphy Group Handicap Chase, finishing 38
    2 of 10 winners ran in December Gold Cup, finishing 4P
    2 of 10 winners had run in Haydock National Trial last time out, finishing 09

    Racing Tactics


    6 of 10 winner raced prominently
    1 of 10 winners raced in midfield
    3 of 10 winners were held up towards rear

    Jockeys


    Jockeys with no claim: 8-23-129
    Jockeys with a claim: 2-7-106


    Jockeys with no claim have ridden 8 of last 10 winners and taken 31 of 40 places.
    Jamie Codd (2-0-8) has ridden the winner twice in the past 10 years.
    Ryan Hatch (1-0-1) & James Tudor (1-0-2) have also ridden 1 of past 7 winners.
    Nina Carberry (0-4-9), Derek O'Connor (0-3-7), Paddy Mullins (0-2-3) & Joshua Guerriero (0-2-4) have each ridden multiple placed horses in the race since 2005.

    Trainers


    Donald McCain (2-1-9) has won 2 of the last 7 renewals & saddled runner-up in 2013. 5 of his 9 runners have finished in the first 5.
    Nicky Henderson (1-2-11) has saddled 2 winners of the race since 2002.
    David Pipe (1-2-20) saddled the 1st & 2nd in 2011 and also the runner-up in 2010 while Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-17) trained the winner in 2012 & a placed finisher in 2011 & 2013.
    Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-10) trained the winner in 2013.
    Venetia Williams (0-3-10) has saddled a placed finisher in 3 of the last 10 runnings.
    Gordon Elliot (0-2-2) has seen his 2 runners in this finish 3rd in 2013 & 2nd in 2014.
    Willie Mullins (0-2-4) has seen his last 4 runners finish 4th-5th-7th-4th.
    Philip Hobbs (0-2-8) twice saddled Parsons Legacy to go close in this.
    Paul Nicholls (0-0-10) has struggled to make an impression with his runners in this race, seeing all 10 in the past 10 years finish unplaced.
    Prior to last year, when they filled 1st, 2nd & 4th, Irish trained runners (1-9-37) had a fairly poor record, having last previously won the race in 1983. Though there were signs of improved form in this race as they did fill 3 of the first 5 home in 2012 and 2 of the first 5 in 2013.

    Price


    No strong trends on prices with 3 winning favourites, one at 33/1 and the other 6 priced between 9/1 & 16/1.
    Favourites (3-3-11) have won 3 of last 10, showing a healthy level stakes profit of 10.33.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 7 to 9


    - Carrying 11-0 or more after claim (top weight won 2 of last 6)


    - Officially rated 134 or higher (ideally rated within 6lbs of top rated)


    - Finished in first 3 on one or both of last two starts


    - Ran in a class 3 or better handicap chase over 3M+ last time


    - Won over 3M+


    - Posted highest RPR over 3M+ (ideally at a left-handed track)


    - 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chaser


    - Run in 1 to 8 handicap chases (won no more than 2)


    - A run over hurdles this season is a positive


    - Ran well in Murphy Group and/or 2014 Ultima Business Solutions H'cap Chase


    - Ridden by a jockey with no claim (Jamie Codd, Nina Carberry & Derek O’Connor do well)


    - Trained by Donald McCain, Gordon Elliot, Willie Mullins, David Pipe or Jonjo O’Neill.

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