The Hennessy Gold Cup takes place on Sunday, 8th February, at Leopardstown. A race with a tremendous history, it has been won by some of the best Irish chasers of recent times, including Florida Pearl and Beef Or Salmon. Willie Mullins’ recent record has been superb, though British trained-runners have also been faring well in the race recently, when they’ve been represented.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
horses aged 6 to 9 have a combined record of 8-8-45.
horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 2-3-22.
Since 2000, the 3 winners aged older than 9 were Florida Pearl in 2004 (had won the race 3 times previously) and Beef Or Salmon in 2006 & 2007 (his 2nd & 3rd successes in the race).
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start (exception beaten less than a length in 4th in Lexus)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 157+ on their last completed start
10 of 10 winners had run since Christmas
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times over fences since August
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (exception Quel Esprit was going well in a grade 1 when brought down)
8 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown (2 exceptions: Neptune Collonges fallen 2 out when still going well in Lexus and Joncol close 3rd in the Lexus on only course start)
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception placed in the Lexus last time)
Highest placed finisher from Lexus Chase: 212116P223 (3-3-10)
Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Carlingford Lough): 11 (2-0-2)
John Durkan Chase winner (Don Cossack): 112 (2-0-3)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Boston Bob): 214 (1-1-3)
Previous season's Killiney Novice Chase winner (Djakadam): 714 (1-0-3)
John Meagher Chase winner (Home Farm): 52 (0-1-2)
Previous season's Topaz Novice Chase winner (Carlingford Lough): F26 (0-1-3)
Bobbyjo Chase winner (On His Own): 2447 (0-1-4)
Kinloch Brae Chase winner (Don Cossack): 44 (0-0-2)
8 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase last time, finishing F123F3U4
4 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing P003
3 of 10 winners ran in the race the previous season, finishing 212
3 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 521
3 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 1U
4 of 4 winners that ran in a novice chase the previous season, ran in Growise Champion Novice Chase, finishing 31B1
2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in previous Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase, finishing 11
2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in previous RSA Chase, finishing 1F
Willie Mullins (4-3-10) has won 8 of the last 16 renewals, including the last 3 renewals in which he’s saddled a runner.
Paul Nicholls (1-2-3) has saddled 3 runners in this race: the runner-up in 2008 & 2014 and the winner in 2009.
British trained runners (2-4-10) have won 2 of the 7 renewals since 2004, in which they’ve been represented. 6 of their 10 runners made the places.
9 of 10 winners were priced 11/2 or below
Last Instalment’s win at 8/1 in 2014 has been the only winner over 11/2 this century.
Favourite (5-3-10) has a fairly good record, winning 5 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 1.52.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 9 (or a previous winner of the race)
- Finished in the first 3 on last completed chase start
- Posted an RPR of 157+ last time
- Has run since Christmas
- Run in 1 to 3 chases this season
- Previously won a grade 1 chase
- Won over 3M to 3M 1F
- Previously won at Leopardstown (or placed in Lexus last time)
- Ran in 2014 Punchestown Gold Cup or Growise Champion Novice Chase
- Ran in 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup or RSA Chase
- Finished in the first 2 in last year’s race and/or 2014 John Durkan Memorial Chase
- Finished in the first 4 or fell in the Lexus Chase last time out
- Priced 11/2 or shorter
- Trained by Willie Mullins or in Britain.