BETFAIR HURDLE TRENDS 2015

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The Betfair Hurdle (formerly the Totesport Trophy) is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 7th February. The race is generally won by a less exposed hurdler, the last 5 winners had run in 6 or fewer hurdles races prior to landing this, with 4 of the 5 being novice hurdlers.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2003-2014):





Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-2
5yo: 4-11-60
6yo: 4-8-63
7yo: 1-2-41
8yo: 0-4-26
9yo: 1-1-18
10yo+: 0-3-10
5 & 6 year olds have taken 8 of the last 10, the last 8, from just under 56% of total runners. The last winner aged older than 6 was Geos in 2004, when winning the race for a second time as a 9yo.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-14-87
horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-15-133
The last 5 winners were allotted 10-6 to 11-2. The only 3 winners, to carry over 11-2 in the past 20 years, had all won a handicap hurdle at class 2 or higher (posting RPR of 150+) last time out.
Top weight: 020P20B750 (0-2-10)
horses carrying a penalty (0-4-8) won this in 2002 and have seen 4 of their last 8 make the frame.

Official Ratings


horses rated 144 or more: 4-7-47
horses rated 131 to 143: 4-19-137
horses rated 130 or lower: 2-3-36
2 of 4 winners rated 145+ had won a grade 1 hurdle while the other 2 had been placed in a graded NH race.
Both winners rated 130 or lower were trained by Gary Moore.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (5 won)
9 of 10 winners posted career high RPR in 1 of their last 3 hurdles starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)
7 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better hurdle last time (3 exceptions were novice hurdlers that had run just 3 times)
8 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times since August (2 exceptions had run 6 times)
9 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)
Last 8 winners had run in 10 or fewer hurdles


10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners (last 8) were first or second season hurdlers (exception was Geos winning it for a second time)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 28K+ (4 exceptions were novice hurdlers)
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race with 11+ runners

Other Races


Adonis Hurdle winner (Activial): 02103 (1-2-5)
Madinat Jumeirah Dubai December Handicap Hurdle winner (Snake Eyes): 10250 (1-1-5)
Ascot Racecourse Novices' Hurdle winner (Jolly's Cracked It): 1 (1-0-1)
Betfred Fun And Friendly Novice Hurdle winner (Ballybolley): 1 (1-0-1)
Holloway's Hurdle winner Baradari): 43 (0-2-2)
Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle winner (Lightentertainment): 7 (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in Madinat Jumeirah Dubai December Handicap Hurdle, finishing 173
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in Boylesports.com H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 51
2 of 4 novice hurdle winners ran in Ascot Racecourse Novice Hurdle, finishing 12
2 of last 3 winners of Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle, to run in this, have won it.

Trainers


Nicky Henderson (2-3-33) has won this 4 times since 2000, most recently training My Tent Or Yours to win it in 2013.
Gary Moore (2-2-11) trained the winner twice in past 7 runnings.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-8) & Paul Nicholls (1-2-15) have both saddled a winner and a placed finisher in the past 5 years.
John Quinn (1-0-2) & Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-5) trained the winner in 2011 & 2014 respectively.
Philip Hobbs (0-5-12) hasn’t won any of the last 10 runnings but has seen 8 of his 12 runners finishing in the top six, 5 getting placed.
David Pipe (0-5-12) has seen 5 of his last 8 runners make the placed.
John Ferguson (0-1-1) & Richard Newland (0-1-2) have both saddled the runner-up in this.
Irish trained runners (2-2-26) have provided 2 of last 10 winners from 11.9% of total runners. Both Irish winners ran in Boylesports.com H’cap Hurdle on previous start. Willie Mullins (0-0-8) has seen all 8 of his runners finish unplaced.

Price


No strong trend on prices, 3 of last 5 winners were first or second favourite while 6 of the last 10 winners went off at 12/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner in 2007 & a 33/1 winner in 2014.
Favourites (3-4-10) have won 3 of the last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 4.75.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 or 6 (or finished in first 2 in this race before)
- Finished in first 3 last time in a class 2 or better hurdle (or a novice hurdler)
- Posted career high RPR in last 3 starts
- Allotted 10-6 to 11-2
- First or second season hurdler
- Run 10 times or less over hurdles
- Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles (won no more than 2)
- Won or placed in a big handicap hurdle this season (or having first run in a handicap)
- Won a hurdle with 11+ runners in it
- Finished in first 3 in Jumeirah December H’cap Hurdle or Ascot Racecourse Novice Hurdle
- Finished in first 5 in Boylesports.com or Steel Plate and Sections H’cap Hurdle last time
- Trained by Nicky Henderson, Gary Moore, David Pipe or Philip Hobbs.