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    Info SPRING JUVENILE HURDLE TRENDS 2015

    The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is the opening race on the Leopardstown card on Sunday, 8th February. Previously run as a grade 2 race, it was elevated to grade 1 status in 2010 and is now one of four grade 1 events on a quality Leopardstown card. It should give some clues towards the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham, as the last 3 winners of that race (Countrywide Flame, Our Conor & Tiger Roll) all ran in this before taking the Triumph.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age
    Race for 4yos

    Breeding


    Irish bred: 7-11-53
    GB bred: 2-3-13
    French bred: 1-2-13
    USA bred: 0-0-2
    7 of 10 (last 5) were Irish bred, though they represented over 65% of total runners.
    2 of 3 French bred hurdlers to make frame came from Willie Mullins yard.
    10 of 10 winners were flat-bred and sired by group-winning stallions

    Gender


    Fillies (1-0-5) have not had many runners in this, but have won it twice since 2002. The only 2 female runners to go off shorter than 14/1 since 2002 both won (Newhall 2002 & Unaccompanied 2011).

    Recent/Past Form


    10 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time out (7 won)
    10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 123+ last time (7 posted RPR of 128+ last time, including last 3)
    9 of 10 winners had run since Christmas
    10 of 10 winners had previously run in 1 to 5 hurdles races
    8 of 10 winners had won over hurdles (2 exceptions were 2nd in a maiden hurdle last time)
    10 of 10 winners had run on the flat
    9 of 10 winners were officially rated 69 or higher on the flat (5 of last 6 were rated 81 or higher)
    5 of 10 winners had won a grade 2 or 3 hurdle (2 exceptions were 2nd in a graded hurdle & other 3 had run in just one hurdles race)

    Other Races


    Festival Hospitality On Sale 3yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Chatham House Rule): 1311 (3-1-4)
    Bar One Racing Juvenile 3-Y-O Hurdle winner (Kalkir): 7261 (1-1-4)
    Irish Field 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle winner (Vercingetorex): 16 (1-0-2)
    Santa Train Bookings at [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] 3yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Prussian Eagle): 2 (0-1-1)
    Book Online at Fairyhouse.ie 3yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Thunder Zone): 4 (0-0-1)
    Go Racing In Kildare 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle winner (Dai Bando): 6 (0-0-1)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Festival Hospitality On Sale 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle, finishing 11d11
    3 of 10 winners ran in Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 071

    Trainers
    Willie Mullins (1-3-10) has gained a winner and 3 places from his 10 runners in this but that is a really poor return when you consider 7 of his 10 runners went off shorter than 3/1, 5 of them were sent off favourite.
    Gordon Elliot (0-2-5) trained the runner-up in 2012 & 2014.
    Noel Meade (0-2-5) trained the winner in 2000 & 2004 and has seen 2 of his 5 runners in past 10 years make the places.

    Price


    No strong trend on prices, though 5 of last 6 winners went off shorter than 7/2.
    Favourites (3-3-10) have a poor enough record having gained just 3 wins in the last 10 years (including 3 beaten at odds on), giving a level stakes loss of 3.59.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Flat bred, by a group-winning stallion
    - Fillies prominent in the market do well
    - Has run since Christmas
    - Finished in the first 3 last time
    - Posted an RPR of 123+ last time
    - Run in 1 to 5 hurdles this season
    - Won over hurdles or placed on only hurdles start
    - Run on the flat and officially rated 80 or higher
    - Finished in first 2 Festival Hospitality On Sale Juvenile Hurdle.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (4th February 2015) 


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