GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2015

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The Betfred Grand National Trial is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 4F, which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 14th February. It can often provide clues for the different Grand Nationals run later in the season and previous form in other Nationals is often a good guide to finding the winner of this.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-3
7yo: 1-7-21
8yo: 2-8-34
9yo: 4-3-28
10yo: 1-1-27
11yo+: 2-3-20
12yo+: 0-1-10
horses aged 7 to 9 have a combined record of 7-18-86
horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 3-5-57
All 3 winners aged 10+ finished 1st or 2nd in a handicap chase worth 15K+ last time.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 11-7 to 11-13: 2-3-21
horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 1-4-38
horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 2-10-40
horses carrying 10-0 to 10-5: 5-6-36
horses carrying 9-13 or less: 0-0-8
Not a huge amount to go on with the weights, only 2 horses managed to carry over 11-0 to victory, both carried top weight.
Top Weight: PFPP1321P2PU (2-3-12) has gained 3 wins and 4 places since 2003.

Official Ratings


horses rated 147 to 158: 1-3-24
horses rated 135 to 146: 5-10-59
horses rated 118 to 134: 4-10-60
6 of last 7 winners were all officially rated 129 to 144.

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners won or placed last time out (2 exceptions were Silver By Nature when winning it for a 2nd year & Rigadin de Beauchene, who was 2nd previous year)
8 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 141+ on last completed start
10 of 10 winner achieved previous career high RPR at a left-handed track
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 chases
9 of 10 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases (exception ran in 14)
9 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 handicap chases (exception had yet to win one)
7 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or better chase (3 exceptions had won a class 3 chase)
8 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 17K+ (1 exception twice 2nd in Welsh National last time & other won Sussex National on previous run)
8 of 10 winners contested a class 2 or better handicap chase over 3M+ on one or both of last 2 starts (1 exception won a grade 2 novice chase last time& other won class 3 Sussex National)
3 of 10 winners had previously won at Haydock (4 of other 7 were having first course start & one was 2nd in previous renewal)

Other Races


Previous season's winner (Rigadin De Beauchene): 31PP (1-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from that season's Welsh National: P5318P2336 (1-4-10)
Cumberland Handicap Chase winner (Ballyoliver): 1P (1-0-2)
Previous season's Welsh National winner (Mountainous): 23 (0-2-2)
Peter Marsh Chase winner (Samstown): 8P2U (0-1-4)
Betfair Home of the Price Rush H'cap Chase winner (Gas Line Boy): 4 (0-0-1)
Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase winner (Broadway Buffalo): 06 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh Grand National, finishing 1272
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's renewal, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cumberland Handicap Chase, finishing 61
7 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 2 in one of Welsh, Surrey, Summer or Scottish Borders Nationals (1 exception was a novice chaser, 1 had won the Grand Sefton on previous start and the other was 2nd in previous year’s GN Trial)

Racing Tactics


9 of 10 winners led or raced prominently from fifth fence

Trainers


Lucinda Russell (2-0-5) has won 2 of the last 5 renewals with Silver By Nature.
Venetia Williams (1-4-12) trained the 1-2 in 2014 and saddled runner-up in 2013 & 2008.
Michael Scudamore (1-1-3) won it back in 2007 with Heltornic.
Richard Lee (0-3-3) trained Le Beau Bai to place 3 times & Paul Nicholls (0-3-11) has also saddled 3 placed finishers.
Mick Channon (0-1-1) & David Pipe (1-0-5) trained the runner-up in 2014 & 2010.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-13) last won this in 2001 but only 1 of his 13 runners in past 10 years have made the places, while Philip Hobbs (0-1-5) has also saddled 1 placed runner.
None of the six Irish-trained runners (0-0-6) have made the frame.

Jockeys


It has paid to use a rider with an allowance in this race as in 9 of the past 10 runnings, 1 of the first 2 home were ridden by a claimer (last 2 winners ridden by claimers):
Claiming riders: 4-10-43
Non-claiming riders: 6-13-100

Price


No strong trends on prices, 3 of last 5 winners were priced 4/1 to 7/1 however there have been 5 winners since 2005 priced between 12/1 & 18/1.
Favourites (2-2-11) had a poor record prior to 2012 but have won 2 of the last 3, giving a level stakes profit of 0.50 over past 10 years.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7 to 9 (or finished in first 2 in h’cap chase worth 15K+ last time)
- Top weight has a fair record
- Officially rated 129 to 144
- Won or placed last time out
- Posted an RPR of 141 or higher on last completed start
- Posted career high RPR at left-handed track
- Contested a class 2 handicap chase over 3M+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts
- Won over 2M 7F or further
- Won 2 to 4 times over fences
- Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning 1 to 3)
- Course winner (or having first run here)
- Previously finished in first 2 in a Surrey, Welsh, Summer or Scottish Borders National
- Finished in first 2 in Welsh National this season or last year’s Grand National Trial
- Won a class 2 or better chase worth 17K+
- Tends to race prominently
- Trained by Lucinda Russell, Venetia Williams or Michael Scudamore
- Respect horses ridden by jockeys claiming an allowance.