The Betfair Ascot Chase takes place on a top quality card at Ascot on Saturday 14th February. A grade 1 chase, run over 2M 5½F it should prove an informative race with a view to the middle distance chase at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
horses aged 6 to 8: 6-5-28
horses aged 9+: 4-7-41
2 of 3 winners aged 10+ had finished in first 2 in a previous renewal & 2 of 3 placed finishers aged 10+ were placed in race before.
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since August (exception had won previous year's running on last start)
9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 161+ in their last 2 starts (exception posted RPR of 156 on penultimate run)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had run at least 6 times over fences
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (exceptions was 3rd in a grade 1)
10 of 10 winners had won or placed in a grade 1
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 5) were previous course winners (all 6 exceptions were having their first course start)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) were officially rated 155+
Highest placed finisher from King George: P111212 (4-2-7)
williamhill.com Chase winner (Balder Succes): 1 (1-0-1)
Weatherbys Private Banking Graduation Chase winner (Theatre Guide): 13 (1-0-2)
Topham Chase winner (Ma Filleule): 2 (0-0-1)
Previous season's Pendil Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 5 (0-0-1)
5 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishng 61325
3 of 10 winners ran in the Old Roan Chase, finishing 241
3 of 3 second season chasers to win it, ran in the Arkle, finishing 252
The record of horses who finished in the first 5 in the previous season's Arkle is very strong: 214F121 (3-2-7)
7 of 10 winners finished in first 5 in the Arkle in their novice chase season (2 of other 3 finished in first 6 in RSA Chase at novices)
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Ryanair Chase, finishing P6
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 16
Nicky Henderson (2-1-6) has saddled Riverside Theatre to win in 2011 & 2012 and Hunt Ball to place last year.
Paul Nicholls (1-2-11) saddled 1 winner and 2 seconds from 11 runners (6 of 11 sent off 4/1 or shorter).
Alan King (1-1-5) trained the winner in 2009 and runner-up in 2012.
Colin Tizzard (1-0-2) won the race with Cue Card in 2013.
Last 9 winners were priced under 6/1
8 of the last 9 favourites have won this and only one horse priced in double-figures has been successful in the past 10 years.
Favourites (8-0-10) have gained 8 wins in past 10 years, giving a level stakes profit of 8.99.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 7 or 8 or won/placed in a previous Ascot Chase
- Run 1 to 4 times this season
- Posted an RPR of 161+ in last 2 starts
- Previously run in at least 6 chases
- Won a grade 1 or 2 chase
- Won or placed in a grade 1 chase
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Officially rated 155+
- Course winner (or having first run here)
- Finished in the first 5 in the Arkle as a novice chaser
- Finished in first 4 in King George or Old Roan Chase
- Trained by Nicky Henderson or Alan King
- Priced below 6/1 (favourite especially).