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    Default BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2015

    The BetBright Chase (formerly the Racing Post Chase) is a 3M handicap chase, which takes place at Kempton on Saturday, the 21st February. It has been a race in which higher rated horses, prominent in the betting have fared well.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 0-2-6
    7yo: 2-6-26
    8yo: 4-7-37
    9yo: 2-3-30
    10yo: 1-3-26
    11yo: 1-0-11
    12yo+: 0-2-5
    8yos have the best individual record, winning 4 of the last 8
    3 of 4 winners aged older than 8 had won a graded chase.
    Both winners aged older than 10 had finished in first 2 in a previous renewal of this.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
    horses carrying 10-12 or more: 8-16-64
    horses carrying 10-11 or lower: 2-7-77
    8 of 10 winners carried 10-12+ and so higher weights are heavily favoured.
    Top Weight: 1231043382 (2-5-10) has gained 3 wins and 5 places from their 12 runners since 2004.

    Official Ratings
    horses rated 141 or higher: 8-14-75
    horses rated 140 or lower: 2-9-66
    The last 10 winners were officially rated 138 or higher.

    Recent/Past Form


    8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (6 won)
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 141+ on last chase start
    9 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 4 chases since August
    10 of 10 winners had win over 2M 5F+
    7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 of 3 exceptions were having first try at 3M or further)
    9 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in 9 or fewer handicaps chases
    8 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or higher (2 exceptions had won twice in class 3)
    9 of 10 winners had won a chase at a right-handed track
    5 of 10 winners were course winners (other 5 were having first run here)
    7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a listed or graded chase

    Other Races


    Previous Year's winner (Bally Legend): 4260 (0-1-4)
    Masters Handicap Chase winner (Le Reve): 1 (1-0-1)
    Weatherbys Private Insurance Graduation Chase winner (Fox Appeal): 2 (0-1-1)
    Pertemps Network Handicap Chase winner (Tenor Nivernais): 6P (0-0-2)
    William Hill - Bet On The Move Handicap Chase winner (Ballinvarrig): 50F (0-0-3)
    2 of 10 winners ran in Masters Handicap Chase last time, finishing 17
    2 of 10 winners ran in December Gold Cup, finishing F2
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh National, finishing 66
    Last 2 novice chasers to win this had won a chase over 2M 5F at Wincanton earlier that season

    Racing Tactics


    7 of 10 winners led or chased leaders

    Trainers


    Tom George (2-2-5) saddled Nacarat to win it in 2009 & 2012 and finish 2nd & 3rd in 2010 & 2011.
    Paul Nicholls (1-6-19) has saddled 5 of the last 7 favourites of this race and while he did win it in 2008 with Gungadu, 4 of his 10 runners in past 5 years have failed to complete (including all 3 favourites), though he has saddled runner-up in past 2 runnings.
    Caroline Keevil (1-0-1) & Harry Fry (1-0-1) have trained the last 2 winners.
    Venetia Williams (0-1-8), Alan King (0-0-5) & Nicky Henderson (0-0-6) have struggled in this, their 19 collective runners producing no winners and just 1 place.

    Price


    9 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 12/1
    Bally Legend bucked the trend of lower priced winner, winning at 28/1 in 2014.
    horses priced 11/1 or below: 8-14-61 (+3.00)
    horses priced 12/1 or bigger: 2-9-80 (-38.00)
    Favourites (1-1-10) have gained just 1 win since 2005, giving a level stakes loss of 5.00.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 7 or 8 (or aged 9+ and previously won a graded chase)


    - Carrying 10-12+ (top weight does well)
    - Officially rated 138 or higher
    - Finished in the first 3 last time out (ideally won)
    - Posted an RPR of 145+ last time
    - Run in 2 to 4 chases since August
    - Run in 9 or fewer handicap chases, winning 1 to 3
    - Won a class 2 race or higher
    - Previously finished 1st or 2nd in a listed or graded chase (or is a novice)
    - Won over 2M 6F+
    - Tends to race prominently
    - Course winner (or having first course start)
    - Previously won a chase at a right handed track
    - Trained by Tom George
    - Priced 12/1 or shorter.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (18th February 2015) 


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