cheltenham festval day 1 trends

[ganjaman2]

Supreme Novices' Hurdle


Arkle Challenge Trophy


Festival Challenge Chase


Champion Hurdle


Mares Hurdle


Novices Handicap


National Hunt Chase


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CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS 2015




The highlight of the first day of Cheltenham’s 4 day Festival, which kicks off on the 10th March, is the Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy, the big one for 2 mile hurdlers. Since 1998, eleven winners have come from Ireland, with Jezki & Hurricane Fly taking the last 2 renewals.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-6-28
6yo: 3-5-36
7yo: 3-3-24
8yo: 2-4-19
9yo: 1-2-8
10yo+: 0-0-16
9 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9, they represented just over 70.8% of total runners.
The only 5yo winner in the past 25 years was Katchit in 2008, and Sizing Europe did look the likely winner of the race before losing his action between the final 2 flights.
All 15 horses aged 10+ since 2005 have finished unplaced, the only winner aged 10+ in the last 50 years was Sea Pigeon in 1980/81.

horses that ran well in this aged 5


Record of horses that had finished in first 4 as 5yos in following renewal:
In 1997 Theatreworld was 2nd as a 5yo and was 2nd in 1998
In 1997 I’m Supposin was 4th as a 5yo and was 3rd in 1998
In 2000 Hors La Loi was 2nd as a 5yo and won next running as a 7yo in 2002
In 2007 Afsoun was 3rd at as a 5yo and was 7th in 2008
In 2008 Katchit won it as a 5yo and finished 6th in 2009
In 2008 Punjabi finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2009
In 2009 Celestial Halo finished 2nd as a 5yo and finished 4th in 2010
In 2009 Binocular finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2010


Since 1997 there have been eight runners in the Champion Hurdle that had finished in the first 5 as 5yos in the previous renewal, they finished 32176141 (3-2-8).

Gender


The 3 mares (0-0-3) to run in the past 10 renewals have been unplaced. Since 2000 only Bilbao has made the frame when she finished 3rd in 2002. That year the first 2 in the betting went wrong during the race (Istabraq pulled up and Valiramix slipped up). It’s safe to say she would not have made the places had Valiramix completed.

Recent/Past Form


7 of 10 winners won last time out (exceptions finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in a grade 1 or 2)
8 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 160+ last time
10 of 10 winners had run since Christmas
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
8 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (2 expcetions were 2nd season hurdlers that finished in first 4 in previous year's Supreme or Neptune)
8 of 10 winners were second or third season hurdlers (2 exceptions were 3rd in previous year's Champion Hurdle)
8 of 10 winners had previously won a grade 1 hurdle (Sublimity had finished 4th in the previous season's Supreme Novices & Rock On Ruby had finished narrow 2nd in two grade 1's)
The 10 winners had collectively had 31 prior hurdles starts the year they won it. In the 30 they completed, they finished in first 3 in 29 of them.

Big Field Form


When looking at the form of the past 10 winners, it is noticeable that their recent form in bigger fields was superior to that of form in smaller fields when running in hurdles races over 2M to 2M 1F.
Last 10 winners’ combined last 4 runs in 2M-2M1F hurdles with 10+ runners: 24-7-32.
Last 10 winners’ combined last 4 runs in 2M-2M1F hurdles with 9 or fewer runners: 20-5-35
The last 10 winners had finished in the first 4 on all of their last 4 starts in 2M-2M 1F hurdles with 10 or more runners. Only unplaced effort was a 4th in previous year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

Last year’s race


Jezki won last year’s Champion Hurdle by a neck from My Tent Or Yours, before taking the Punchestown Champion Hurdle. He has been beaten on all 3 runs this season. Runner-up, My Tent Or Your, was placed in the Scottish Champion Hurdle under top weigth on only run since, 3rd The New One won the Aintree Hurdle next time and has won all 4 runs since. 4th Hurricane Fly was runner-up in Punchestown Champion Hurdle next time but has won 3 grade 1’s from 3 start this season. The 5th, Captain Cee Bee, hasn’t run since and the other 3 finishers have all gone chasing this season, with 6th, Ptit Zig, really impressing.
The combined subsequent hurdles record of 7 horses from last year to have runs since is 9-2-18. Subsequent chase form of those that have gone over fences: 7-0-8.
The form next time out of the 7 horses, to come out of the race and run under NH rules since, reads 1312475 (2-0-7).

Cheltenham Festival Form


Defending Champion Hurdler (Jezki): 132469324 (1-4-9)
Triumph Hurdle winner (Tiger Roll): F612353F (1-3-8)
Neptune Investments Novices' Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 23 (0-2-2)
Supreme Novices winner (Vautour): 35005P (0-1-6)
5 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Hurdle, finishing 13331
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Supreme Novices' Hurdle, finishing 43
4 of 4 second season hurdlers finished in first 4 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at previous festival
4 of 10 winners had won a race at the Cheltenham Festival (5 others had finished in first 4 in Champion, Supreme or Neptune)
9 of 10 winners finished in first 4 over hurdles at previous Cheltenham Festival (exception was Hurricane Fly in 2011 who might have won at previous 2 Festivals but for injury)

Other races


Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Jezki): 11161314 (5-1-8)
Ryanair Hurdle (Hurricane Fly): 51206114 (3-1-8)
Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 5140061314 (3-1-10)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 21F9614 (2-1-7)
Fighting Fifth Hurdle winner (Irving): 25P0102232 (1-5-10)
Herald Champion Novice Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 3F81 (1-1-4)
Contenders Hurdle winner: 006721 (1-1-6)
Kingwell Hurdle winner: 386P1004 (1-1-8)
International Hurdle winner (The New One): 96232543 (0-4-8)
Ascot hurdle winner (Faugheen): 432 (0-2-3)
Christmas Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 250042 (0-2-6)
Betfair Price Rush Hurdle winner (The New One): 3U (0-1-2)
Williamhill.com Hurdle winner (The New One):73 (0-1-2)
Top Novice hurdle winner (: 0P02 (0-1-4)
Champion Hurdle Trial winner (The New One): 43797 (0-1-5)
Greatwood Hurdle winner (Garde La Victoire): 460257 (0-1-6)
William Hill Handicap Hurdle winner (Sign Of A Victory): 07 (0-0-2)
Aintree Hurdle winner (The New One): 4769 (0-0-4)
Elite Hurdle winner (Purple Bay: 0497 (0-0-4)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 11111
5 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Ryanair Hurdle, finishing 31112
5 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 31114
3 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Hattons Grace Hurdle, finishing 311
2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Morgiana Hurdle, finishing 11
3 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Fighting Fifth, finishing 315
3 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Christmas hurdle, finishing F32
2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Kingwell Hurdle last time out, finishing 13

Trainers


Irish trained runners (6-5-51) have won 6 of the last 10 runnings.
Nicky Henderson (2-6-15) has saddled 2 winners and 6 places from 15 runners in past 10 renewals.
Willie Mullins (2-1-8) has saddled Hurricane Fly to finish 1st-3rd-1st-4th in last 4 years.
Jessica Harrington (1-1-4) trained Jezki to win this last year.
Paul Nicholls (1-1-8) trained Rock On Ruby to win this in 2012.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners get placed.

Price


6 of the last 8 winners have been sent off between 9/1 and 22/1
Longer prices have held sway in this in past 8 years with Hurricane Fly’s two wins at 11/4 & 13/8 the only 2 recent winners priced shorter than 9/1.
Favourites (4-2-11) have won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.38.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Gelding aged 6 to 9
- Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2)
- Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out
- Run 2 to 4 times this season
- 2nd or 3rd season hurdler or finished in first 3 in 2014 Champion Hurdle
- Finished in first 3 on last 4 runs in 2M-2M 1F hurdles races with 10+ runners
- Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
- Finished in first 3 in 2014 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2014 Festival
- Won the Punchestown Champion Hurdle
- Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Ryanair Hurdle
- British-trained that finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth and/or Christmas Hurdle
- Ran in Kingwell, Contenders, Red Mills Trial or Irish Champion Hurdle last time
- Trained by Nicky Henderson or in Ireland.

[ganjaman2]

ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY TRENDS 2015




The second race on day 1 is the Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase, run over 2M for novice chasers. It has been won by some top class chasers since 2000 including 4 subsequent Champion Chase winners – Moscow Flyer, Azertyioup, Voy Por Ustedes & Sprinter Sacre. Irish trainers appear to hold a strong hand in the race this year while the record of Paul Nicholls has been surprisingly poor in the Arkle in recent years.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-3-17
6yo: 2-2-29
7yo: 6-7-49
8yo: 1-6-20
9yo+: 0-0-6
5 year olds had a very strong record before 2008 as up to then they received a healthy weight allowance (5lbs in 2007) but since that has been scrapped there have been very few 5yos running in this.
4 of last 5 winners aged 5 or 6 were French or German bred.
In past 20 years only 2 horses aged over 7 have won this, both were Irish bred 8yos who had won a grade 1 two mile hurdle.

Gender


Mares (0-1-4) have gained 1 place from their 4 runners however the 3 unplaced finishers were all priced 14/1 or bigger whereas the one female to make the frame was Kruguyrova, who was sent off 9/1 fourth favourite.

Breeding


Irish Bred: 5-9-53
French Bred: 3-4-31
British Bred: 2-3-24
German Bred: 0-2-8
Other: 0-0-5
Not a whole lot in it on the breeding side.
3 winners bred in France were aged 5 or 6
6 of 7 winners bred in Ireland or Britain were aged 7 or 8

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 153+ in 1 or both of last 2 starts (1 exception won on only previous chase last time, RPR of 143)
8 of 10 winners posted their best RPR over fences on their last start
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all chase runs
8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases (2 exceptions were unbeaten in 1 or 2 previous chase runs)
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases)
10 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 13 hurdles races
8 of 10 winners contested a novice hurdle the previous season (2 exceptions had won grade 1 hurdles)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles
6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (3 exceptions had run here once, finishing 3rd Supreme, 4th in Neptune & 2nd in a handicap hurdle and other was having first course start)

Other Races


Wayward Lad Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 35P5114 (2-1-7)
Kingmaker Novice Chase winner: U12626 (1-2-6)
Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 172924 (1-2-6)
Winter Gala Novices' Chase winner (Chirs Pea Green): 1248 (1-1-4)
Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Clarcam): 669135P (1-1-7)
Noel Novice Chase winner (Un De Sceaux): 1 (1-0-1)
Pendil Novice Chase winner: P1 (1-0-2)
Betdaq 0% on Multiple First Month Novices' Chase winner (Josses Hill): 41 (1-0-2)
Dipper Novice Chase winner (Ptit Zig): 510 (1-0-3)
Irish Arkle winner (Un De Sceaux): 064033 (0-2-6)
Kilbegnet EBF Novice Chase winner (Ted Veale): 2 (0-1-1)
Scottish Future Champions Novices' Chase winner: 2 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Supreme Novice Hurdle winner (Vautour): 42 (0-1-2)
Follow @AtTheRaces on Twitter Novices' Chase winner (Grumeti): U27 (0-1-3)
Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Novice Chase winner (Clarcam): 436 (0-1-3)
Lightning Novice Chase winner (Three Kingdoms): 53505 (0-1-5)
Racing Post Arkle Trial Novice Chase winner (Dunraven Storm): F26F544 (0-1-7)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Sizing Granite): 74 (0-0-2)
2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in November Novice Chase, finishing 22
2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Henry VIII Novice Chase, finishing 12
2 of 2 Nicky Henderson-trained winners ran in Wayward Lad Novice chase, finishing 11
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase at Leopardstown (Irish Arkle or Racing Post Novice Chase)
Last 5 Irish-trained winners had finished in first 2 in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
5 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at previous Cheltenham Festival (3 Neptune, Supreme & World Hurdle)
4 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in graded hurdle at previous Aintree Festival (2 Mersey, 1 Top & 1 Aintree)

Trainers


Nicky Henderson (2-2-8) trained Sprinter Sacre & Simonsig to win this in 2012 & 2013 and half his runners since 2004 have made the frame.
Alan King (2-0-5) has trained backed to back winners in 2006 & 2007.
Philip Hobbs (1-2-6), Henry De Bromehad (1-0-1) & David Pipe (1-0-4) have all saddled the winner once in past 10 years.
Paul Nicholls (0-1-13) last trained the winner in 2003 but his 13 runners in past 10 years have produced no winners and just 1 place.
Mouse Morris (0-1-2), Noel Meade (0-1-4) & Willie Mullins (0-1-8) have all saddled a placed finisher in past 4 renewals.
Irish trained runners (2-5-34) have an average record in the race, producing 2 winners from approximately 26.6% of the total runners, though they been responsible for 2 of the past 6 winners, as well as runner-up in 2013 and the 2nd & 3rd last year.

Price


9 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting
9 winners went off at single figure odds but Western Warhorse’s 33/1 success was the big shock in last 10 years.
Favourites (2-4-11) have won 2 of last 3, though over past 10 years show a level stakes loss of 6.74.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French bred aged 5 or 6, or Irish/British bred aged 7
- Run in 2 to 5 chases this season
- Never finished out of the first 2 over fences
- Posted an RPR of 153+ on last 2 starts
- Had won a grade 1 or 2 chase
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Run in 4 to 13 hurdles & officially rated 140+ over hurdles
- Course winner or placed in a hurdle at the Festival (or having first start here)
- Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at 2014 Cheltenham Festival (ideally in a novice h’dl)
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree Festival 2014
- Finished in first 2 in November, Wayward Lad and/or Henry VIII Novice Chase
- Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Philip Hobbs or David Pipe
- Respect Irish runners that finished in first 2 in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
- From the first 5 in the betting (no bigger than 9/1).

[ganjaman2]

SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2015




The Cheltenham Festival kicks off on Tuesday 10th March with the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, a grade 1 over 2M 110 yards. This race has been very good to the Irish in recent years with 10 of the last 16 winners being trained in Ireland.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-1-6
5yo: 5-12-90
6yo: 4-6-67
7yo: 1-1-20
8yo+: 0-0-4
No strong trends on ages, 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, but those age groups represented 84.4% of the total runners. The last 2 winners aged older than 6 were trained in Ireland and owned by J P McManus.
The only two 4yos to make the frame in past 15 years were Binocular (2nd in 2008) & Hors La Loi III (1st in 2000), both went on to win the Champion Hurdle.

Gender


Mares (0-1-4) have gained 1 place from 4 runners in last 10 years. Like A Butterfly in 2002 was last female winner, and both female hurdlers to make the frame since 2000 had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners ran in the past 55 days
8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions placed)
7 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 141+ last time out
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August
10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts that season
9 of 10 winners had not finished worst that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (exception was 4th in the grade 1 Christmas Hurdle)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle
7 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 2 were flat bred rated 86+ on the level & other made racecourse debut over hurdles)
2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper)

Other Races


Deloitte Novices Hurdle winner ): 311 (2-1-3)
Rossington Main Novice Hurdle winner (Aso): 31 (1-1-2)
Coolmore EBF Stallions NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Arzal): 31 (1-1-2)
32Redsport.com 3/1 Mullins Cheltenham Win Novices' Hurdle winner: 012 (1-1-3)
Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Douvan): 8031 (1-1-4)
British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Seedling): 610U2 (1-1-5)
Champion Bumper winner (Silver Concorde): 75341 (1-1-5)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (Sempre Medici): 1 (1-0-1)
Tolworth Hurdle winner (L'Ami Serge): 01 (1-0-2)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Novice Hurdle winner (Bentelimar): 816 (1-0-3)
Feel The Rush at Betfair Novices' Hurdle winner (): 0P14 (1-0-4)
William Hill - In The App Store Novices' Hurdle winner (Jollyalan): 4198 (1-0-4)
Punchestown Champion Bumper winner (Shaneshill): 5010 (1-0-4)
Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (Nichols Canyon): 200373 (0-3-6)
Betfair Hurdle winner (): 2520 (0-2-4)
Harrison James & Hardie Maiden Hurdle winner (Commissioned): 3 (0-1-1)
Future Champions Novice Hurdle winner (Sizing John): 03 (0-1-2)
Ascot Racecourse Novices' Hurdle winner (Jolly's Cracked It): 0P2 (0-1-3)
Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle winner (L'Ami Serge): 9259 (0-1-4)
bet365 Novices' Hurdle winner (Jollyalan): 065 (0-0-3)
Bewleys Hotel Maiden Hurdle winner (Avisio Ville): 50007 (0-0-5)
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in previous year's Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 251
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Feel The Rush at Betfair last time, finishing 31
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle, finishing 1F
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in previous season's John Smith's Bumper, finishing 90
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Deloitte Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 11

Trainers


Irish-trained horses (5-4-59) have taken 5 of the last 10 renewals, including last 2.
Willie Mullins (3-0-16) trained the winner in 2007, 2013 & 2014.
Paul Nicholls (2-1-11) has trained the winner twice in past 10 years, if you only count his runners which were sent off at 10/1 or shorter, he’s had 2 winners and 1 second from 5 runners.
Noel Meade (1-1-7) & Philip Hobbs (1-1-8) saddled the winners in 2009 & 2010 respectively.
Nicky Henderson (0-8-16) has seen 8 of his 16 runners make the frame and has saddled the runner-up in each of the last 4 runnings, all responsible for 3rd in 2011 & 2014.

Price


Recent trend has been towards longer prices with 6 of the last 10 winners going off 10/1 or bigger, including a 40/1 winner.
Favourites (1-4-13) have won just 1 of the last 10 (Vautour as a joint favourite last year) giving a level stakes loss of 7.75. Prior to Vautour’s win as joint favourite in 2014, you had to go back to 2004 for last winning favourite.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Won last time out in the past 55 days
- Posted an RPR of 141+ last time
- Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season and won at least half those starts
- Never finished outside first 3 over hurdles
- Finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle
- Won a bumper or rated 86+ on the flat
- Finished in first 5 in 2014 Champion Bumper
- Deloitte Novice Hurdle winners do well
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland (especially by Willie Mullins).

[ganjaman2]

MARES HURDLE TRENDS 2015




The OLBG Mares Hurdle is one of the newer races, introduced in 2008, and is run over an intermediate distance of 2M 4F. The one horse that has dominated this race is Quevega, who has won the last 6 runnings. For obvious reasons her dominance means that looking at some trends based on the winners will be meaningless but if you omit her from some statistics, we may be able to find the mare most likely to take over her mantle.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 7 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
Quevega has won this for last 6 years (aged 5 to 10), it may be more enlightening to look at age stats when removing her from the race.
Age stats w/o Quevega (i.e. the 2nd to Quevega is counted as winner)
4yo: 0-0-3
5yo: 1-1-22
6yo: 4-4-36
7yo: 1-3-26
8yo: 1-4-17
9yo+: 0-2-6
10yo+: 0-0-2
The only horse to ever win it aged older than 8 was Quevega, as a 9 & 10 year old. 6yos have done best of the runners, when excluding Quevega, winning 4 of 7.

Breeding


The French-bred Quevega has won the last 6, but when excluding her from last 6 renewals, breeding stats read:
British Bred: 3-4-48
Irish Bred: 2-9-44
French Bred: 1-1-18
German bred: 1-0-1
USA bred: 0-0-1

Recent/Past Form of 8 horses that finished 1st or 2nd that weren’t Quevega


8 of 8 finished in the first 3 on all of their last 3 starts
8 of 8 finished in first 2 last time (6 won)


7 of 8 won 1 of last 2 starts
6 of 8 posted an RPR of 142+ last time
8 of 8 had run in past 55 days
6 of 8 (last 5) had previously run in 4 to 11 hurdles races
7 of 7 had run in 2 to 5 hurdles races since August


7 of 8 had won over 2M 4F to 2M 5F
6 of 8 had won a class 1 NH flat race or hurdle (2 exceptions were 2nd in a grade 2)
8 of 8 had contested a grade 1 or 2 under NH rules
7 of 8 made debut in a NH race (exception had first run on flat in France)

Other Races


Warfield Mares Hurdle winner (Bitofapuzzle): 82208 (0-2-5)
Irish Stallions EBF Mares Champion Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 035U2 (0-2-5)
William Hill - Down The App Mares Handicap Hurdle winner (Land Of Vic): 2 (0-1-1)
Warwick OLBG.com Mares Hurdle winner (Glens Melody): 2 (0-1-1)
Grabel Mares Hurdle winner (Little King Robin): 030 (0-1-3)
IFG/Willis EBF Mares Hurdle winner (Carrigmoorna Rock): 030 (0-1-3)
32Red.com Mares' Hurdle winner (Aurore D'Estruval): 3789 (0-1-4)
Olgb.com Supports Mares' Jumps Racing H’cap Hurdle winner (Polly Peachum): 67 (0-0-2)
Wetherby OLBG.com Mares Hurdle winner (Aurore D'Estruval): 74095 (0-0-5)
Bathwick Tyres Mares H'cap Hurdle winner (Polly Peachum): 04800 (0-0-5)
4 of Quevega’s 6 wins came after winning the World Series Hurdle last time out

Other Races (8 horses that finished 1st or 2nd that weren’t Quevega)
4 of 8 ran in Warfield Hurdle, finishing 2112
2 of 8 ran in Mares listed bumper at previous year's Aintree Festival, finishing 01

Trainers


Willie Mullins (6-1-8) has won last 6 with Quevega and saddled 1-2 last year.
Donald McCain (1-0-5) won the inaugural running with Whiteoak.
Nicky Henderson (0-2-8) has saddled 2 placed finishers.
Alan King (0-1-3) trained the 3rd in 2014, his two other runners finished 4th & 5th.
Irish trained runners (6-4-29) have won last 6 (all Quevega). If you remove Willie Mullins runners from the Irish contingent, their record becomes 0-1-15.

Price


6 of 7 winners were Quevega, who was sent off favourite on each occasion, with Whiteoak winning it in 2008 at 20/1.
Removing Quevega’s 6 wins, 11 of the other 15 places have been filled by double-figure priced runners and at least one horse price 20/1 or bigger has made the frame in every renewal (2nd & 3rd in 2014 were 14/1 & 25/1, 2nd & 3rd in 2013 were priced 33/1 & 40/1, while in 2012 the 2nd & 3rd went off at 14/1 & 66/1).
Favourite (6-1-8) has won 6 of 7 (all Quevega), giving a level stakes profit of 5.36.


Summary:
Based on the trends from past 7 runnings of horses that ran well (not Quevega) look for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 8
- Finished in the first 3 on all of their last 3 starts
- Finished in first 2 last time (in past 55 days)
- Won 1 of last 2 starts
- Posted an RPR of 142+ last time
- Had run in 2 to 5 hurdles races since August
- Has won over 2M 4F to 2M 5F
- Had won a class 1 race under NH rules (or placed in a graded hurdle)
- Made racecourse debut in a NH race
- Finished in first 2 in Warfield and/or World Series Hurdle
- Trained by Willie Mullins.

[ganjaman2]

TOBY BALDING NATIONAL HUNT NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2015




The Toby Balding National Hunt Chase is a novice event, run over 4 miles, and is restricted to amateur jockeys. Conditions of the race changed in 2010 as there was formerly a penalty structure for previous chase wins, which has now been scrapped, meaning the race now attracts higher class novices.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-1-26
7yo: 5-9-71
8yo: 3-6-47
9yo: 1-3-28
10yo: 0-1-9
11yo+: 0-0-3
7 & 8 year olds have won 8 of last 10 but have represented approximately 64.1 % of total runners.

Gender


Mares (0-1-7) have gained 1 place from 7 runners.

Breeding


Irish Bred: 5-14-119
English Bred: 3-4-41
French Bred: 2-2-22
Other: 0-0-2
No major trends to be found on the winners’ breeding.
Record of progeny of Oscar: 16P1 (2-0-4)

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time (3 exceptions unplaced in a graded chase last time)
5 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) posted an RPR of 144+ last time
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times since July
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a 3M+ chase
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdle or chase over 3M+
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 9 chases (exception was a season chaser)
10 of 10 winners made their debut in a bumper, hurdle or point to point
5 of 7 British-trained winners had won or placed in Newbury chase over 2M 4F+

Other Races


Money Back Faller Insurance at Titanbet.co.uk Novices' Chase winner (Cogry): 31 (1-1-2)
Highest placed finisher from December Novice Chase: 102 (1-1-3)
Topaz Novice Chase winner (Don Poli): 1 (1-0-1)
Highest placed finisher from Topaz Novice Chase: 1U021F19 (3-1-8)
Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Wounded Warrior): 5F29 (0-1-4)
Ten Up Chase winner (Very Wood): 59 (0-0-2)
Buy Your 2015 Annual Membership Beginners Chase winner (The Job Is Right): P7 (0-0-2)
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Topaz Novice Chase, finishing F51
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in CSP Novice Handicap Chase, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Cheltenham Club Novice Chase, finishing F2

Trainers
Alan King (2-1-8) trained the winner in 2008 & 2014 and saddled the 3rd in 2013.
Willie Mullins (1-1-7) trained the winner in 2013 and the 3rd in 2014.
Rebecca Curtis (1-0-1), Ian Duncan (1-0-1), Gordon Elliot (1-0-2) Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-7) have all saddled the winner in past 10 years.
Tony Martin (0-1-2) has saddled the runner-up in 2009 & 5th in 2014.
The Sandra Hughes yard (0-1-2) has saddled 2 seconds from 3 runners since 2000, while Emma Lavelle (0-1-2) trained runner-up last year.
Paul Nicholls (0-1-7) has a poor record in this, gaining just 1 place from 12 runners since 2000 (which included 3 favourites).
Irish trained runners (3-11-49) have done well in this race recently, having won 3 of the last 10 and in past 6 years they have accounted for the 2nd in 2009, the 2nd & 3rd in 2010, the winner in 2011, the 3rd & 4th in 2012 and 1st & 2nd in 2013 & 3rd in 2014.

Jockeys


Derek O'Connor (1-3-8) rode the winner in 2011 and has also been on the runner-up on 3 occasions in past 10 years.
Patrick Mullins (1-1-4) & Sam Waley-Cohen (1-1-4) have each ridden a winner and a placed finisher in past 6 runnings.
Joshua Newman (1-0-2) rode Midnight Prayer to win this last year, while Katie Walsh (1-0-3) won this in 2010.
Nina Carberry (0-3-9) & William Biddick (0-2-5) have both ridden multiple placed finishers.

Racing Tactics


5 of 10 winners were held up towards the rear
5 of 10 winners raced prominently

Price


Between 2003 & 2007, 4 of 5 winners were sent off 25/1 or bigger but since 2008 all 7 winners were priced between 5/1 & 14/1, with favourites taking 3 of last 4.


Favourites (3-1-10) have won 3 of 10, giving a level stakes profit of 5.25.





Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7 or 8


- Finished in first 2 last time in past 50 days


- Posted an RPR of 144+ last time


- Run 4 to 8 times this season


- Previously run in 3 to 9 chases


- Has won a race over 3M+


- Finished in the first 2 in a chase over 3M+


- Made debut in a point to point, bumper or hurdle


- Won or placed in a Newbury Chase over 2M 4F or further


- Trained by Alan King or in Ireland & ran in Topaz Novice Chase.

[ganjaman2]

FESTIVAL TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2015




The Ultima Business Solutions Festival Trophy Handicap Chase (formerly the William Hill Trophy) is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3 miles and half a furlong. It’s the third race run on the opening day of the Festival and there are plenty of important trends that should be taken note of before having a bet in this race.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-3-14
7yo: 4-8-36
8yo: 3-2-44
9yo: 1-10-48
10yo: 2-4-35
11yo+: 0-2-31
10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10 and they have also filled 34 of 39 places
horses aged 6 to 8: 7-13-94
horses aged 9 or older: 3-16-114
horses aged 11+ should be avoided seeing as they have filled 2 places from 31 runners in the past 10 renewals.

Breeding


Irish bred: 8-11-109
French bred: 1-9-48
British bred: 1-8-41
Other: 0-1-10
Irish bred horses have won 8 of last 10 from approximately 52.4% of total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 11-0 or more: 2-16-84
horses carrying 10-5 to 10-13: 5-11-91
horses carrying 10-4 or lower: 3-2-33
8 of 10 winners carried 10-12 or less. The 2 exceptions were both unexposed over fences (each had only 5 previous runs over fences) and both had finished 2nd in a 3M grade 1 hurdle.
Top Weight: 23P0787597PF (0-2-12)

Official Ratings


horses rated 144 or higher: 1-12-71
horses rated 130 to 143: 7-17-118
horses rated 129 or below: 2-0-19
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 145 (5 of last 7 rated 142 to 145)



Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (5 won)
7 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 134+ on last chase start
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)
9 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 3 previous wins over fences
9 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase (exception was a novice chaser that had finished 2nd in a grade 1 3M Hurdle)
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ireland
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+
9 of 10 winners had previously contested a class 2 or graded race over 2M 5F+ at Cheltenham

Other Races


Kim Muir winner (Spring Heeled): 20 (0-1-2)
Majordomo Hospitality Handicap Chase winner (Benbane Head): P2 (0-1-2)
Sportingbet Future Stars Chase winner (Black Thunder): 9 (0-0-1)
Freebets.com Trophy Chase winner (Annacotty): 5 (0-0-1)
Masters Handicap Chase winner (Le Reve): P9 (0-0-2)
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 5) ran in that season's Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 05
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in previous season's World Series Hurdle, finishing 24
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Grand National, finishing B7
2 of 10 winners ran in the United House Gold Cup, finishing 7P
2 of last 3 novice winners were placed in a 3M Exeter Novices' Chase in November

Trainers


Jonjo O’Neill (3-1-11) has saddled 3 winners (2009, 2012 & 2014) in past 10 years.
Alan King (1-1-9) trained the winner in 2004 & 2011.
David Pipe (1-3-13) trained the winner in 2008 and has also saddled The Package to be placed in 3 of last 5 runnings.
Tony Martin (1-0-4) & Colin Tizzard (1-0-5) have both trained 1 of last 10 winners.
Nicky Henderson (0-6-15) last trained the winner in 2000 and has seen 6 of his 15 runners get placed in past 10 runnings.
Donald McCain (0-2-2) trained Our Mick to finish 3rd and 2nd in 2012 & 2013.
Lucinda Russell (0-1-2), Sue Smith (0-1-4), Gary Moore (0-1-5) & Philip Hobbs (0-1-6) have all saddled 1 placed finisher in past 10 years.
Paul Nicholls (0-1-10), Venetia Williams (0-1-12), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-17) have managed just 2 places from their collective 39 runners since 2005.
There had been no Irish trained (1-2-14) winner for 38 years before Youlneverwalkalone won it in 2003 and Dun Doire managed to repeat the feat in 2006. Last 2 Irish winners had finished in first 3 in a handicap chase in Britain earlier that season.

Price


No strong trend on price, as 6 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 10/1 but there has been 3 big shocks in the last 10 years, with a 50/1 winner in 2007, a 33/1 in 2010 & a 28/1 in 2013.
Favourites (1-5-13) have a poor record in the race having won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7 to 10 (ideally 7 or 8)
- Irish bred
- Carrying 10-13 or less (or previously placed in a grade 1 hurdle over 3M)
- Officially rated 129 to 145 (ideally rated 142 to 145)
- Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)
- Posted an RPR of 134+ last time
- Won over 3M+
- First or second season chaser
- Won 1 to 3 times over fences
- Has run in 7 or fewer handicap chases (won no more than 2)
- Won a class 3 or better handicap chase
- Won or placed in a NH race worth 39K+
- Trained by Alan King, Jonjo O’Neill or David Pipe.

[ganjaman2]

CHELTENHAM CLUB NOVICES' HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2015.




The Cheltenham Club Novices´ Handicap Chase was first run in 2005 and it is run over an intermediate distance of 2M 4½F. Prior to 2011 it was run on the new course with no upper limit on ratings but now it’s run on the old course for horses rated 0-140, so some trends will have less relevance.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-1-16
6yo: 2-9-38
7yo: 6-7-77
8yo: 1-8-43
9yo: 0-4-16
10yo+: 0-1-5
7 year olds have won all 6 of the 10 runnings from approximately 39.5% of the total runners.
Both 5yos to make the frame were French bred.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 11-4 or more: 4-14-91
horses carrying 10-10 to 11-3: 5-12-72
horses carrying 10-9 or less: 1-4-32
The last 9 winners carried 10-11 or more though with the race now limited to horses rated 140 or less, it’s almost assured that all runners will have at least 10-11. Since the new conditions for the race were introduced in 2011, all 16 places were filled by horses carrying 11-4 or more, though only 8 of 79 runners carried less than 11-4.
Top weights: 507708P1P1P00 (2-0-13) have won 2 of the last 3 runnings.
horses carrying a penalty: 670502P6PP (0-1-10)

Official Ratings (ratings now capped to 0-140)


horses rated 138 or higher: 4-12-80
horses rated 130 to 137: 5-17-102
horses rated 129 or lower: 1-1-13
horses officially rated 132 or higher won the last 8 renewals and filled 31 of 40 places, though conditions of this race changed in 2011 as now only horses rated 140 or less are eligible to run in this, so previous official rating figures have less relevance.
horses rated 137+ have won past 3 renewals & filled 9 of 12 places.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time (exception won penultimate start)
10 of 10 winners had their last run in past 60 days
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 133+ in last 2 completed chases starts


10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 7 times over fences that season
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on all completed starts over fences that season (1 exception finished in first 3 in 3 of 4 chase starts & other finished in first 3 in 2 of 3 completed starts)
6 of 10 winners were having their first run in a handicap chase (last 3 winners had all run in 3+ handicap chases)
8 of 10 winners had won 1 or 2 previous chases
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (exception had not run over further than 2M 2F)
4 of 10 winners ran in a hurdle race at the previous year's Festival
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 124+ over hurdles
8 of 10 winners had run no more than 8 times over hurdles
5 of 10 winners had been placed in a graded/listed hurdle

Other Races


William Hill - Download The App Novice Handicap Chase winner (Stellar Notion): P1 (1-0-2)
Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase winner (Generous Ransom): 29PU0 (0-1-5)
Betfred Home Of Goals Galore Novices' Handicap Chase winner (Oscar Fortune): 9P (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners (last 3) had won a 2M 4.5F Handicap chase at Kempton that season
2 of 10 winners ran in Jack Fletcher Beginners' Chase, finishing F3
2 of 10 winners had won a 2M 5F chase at Folkestone

Trainers


Nicky Henderson (1-5-19) trained Rajdhani Express to win this race in 2013 and has also seen 5 of his other 18 runners make the frame.
Philip Hobbs (1-1-11) & Paul Nicholls (1-0-15) have each trained the winner in past 6 years.
Nick Gifford (0-2-3), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-2-6) & Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-9) have all saddled a couple of placed finishers.
Willie Mullins (0-1-1), Mouse Morris (0-1-1) and Tony Martin (0-1-1) have each seen their one runner make the frame, while Richard Newland (0-1-2), Gary Moore (0-1-3), Charlie Longsdon (0-1-6), David Pipe (0-1-7) & Venetia Williams (0-1-10) have all accounted for 1 place in the past 4 years.
Irish trained runners (1-6-29) have an average record, winning one and 12 of their 29 runners making the first 6.

Price


7 of 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting
Favourites (2-0-11) have won 2 of the 10 runnings giving a level stakes profit of 3.00.

Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7
- Top weights have done well recently
- Officially rated 137 or higher
- Finished in first 2 last time (posting an RPR of 136+)
- Run in 3 to 7 chases this season
- Finished in first 3 on all completed chase starts this season
- Won over 2M 4F or further
- Run no more than 8 times over hurdles (won or placed in a class 1 hurdle)
- Officially rated 125 or higher over hurdles
- Won a 2M 4F to 2M 5F chase at Kempton or Folkestone this season
- From the first 5 in the betting.