DUBAI WORLD CUP TRENDS 2015

[ganjaman2]

The Dubai World Cup is the richest horse race in the world with a purse of 10 million dollars up for grabs. The races takes place at Meydan on Saturday 28th March and will bring together some of the best horses from Europe, Asia, America, South Africa and the Middle East. Inaugurated in 1996, the race was run on dirt at Nad Al Sheba up until 2009 before being moved to Meydan in 2010 and has been run on a Tapeta surface for the past 5 years. The surface at Meydan has now changed to dirt, and these changes in surface make it difficult to pinpoint the most pertinent trends.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 2-5-32
5yo: 5-11-53
6yo: 1-2-27
7yo+: 2-1-13
No strong trends to be gleaned from the ages of the winners.
All 3 winners aged 6+ had finished in first 5 in the previous year’s World Cup.

Gender


Fillies/mares (0-0-4) have failed to finish better than 8th with their 4 runners since 2005. All 4 female runners were sent off 10/1 or shorter.

Breeding
For 5 runnings on Tapeta (2010-2014):
GB bred: 2-3-21
Japanese bred: 1-1-9
USA bred: 1-1-16
Brazilian bred: 1-0-1
Irish bred: 0-4-12
S African bred: 0-1-3
Other: 0-0-7
For last 5 runnings on dirt (2005 to 2009):
USA bred: 4-6-28
Argentinian bred: 1-1-9
S African bred: 0-1-3
Brazilian bred: 0-1-4
German bred: 0-0-2
Irish bred: 0-0-3
GB bred: 0-0-4
Japanese bred: 0-0-7
Other: 0-0-2
While American bred horses struggled on the tapeta (14 of 16 unplaced), they dominated on dirt, winning 5 of last 6 runnings of the World Cup on dirt, with the other going to an Argentinian bred.

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time (2 exceptions were Godolphin runners that finished 4th & 8th in Al Maktoum Challenge R3)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 115+ last time (2 exceptions did so on penultimate start)
10 of 10 winners had 1 or 2 runs that year
10 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days
10 of 10 winners had at least 9 career starts
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (exception had finished 5th in previous year's race)
6 of 10 winners had won at the track (3 of 4 others were making course debut)
8 of 10 winners had won a group/grade 1 (2 exceptions were group 2 winners that had finished in first 5 in previous Dubai World Cup)
8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 250K+

Course Form
Al Maktoum Challenge R3 winner (African Story): 017009279 (1-1-9)
Al Maktoum Challenge R1 winner (Surfer): 51 (1-0-2)
Al Maktoum Challenge R2 winner (Frankyfourfingers): 4653079 (0-1-7)
Dubai City Of Gold winner (Sky Hunter): 3 (0-1-1)
Burj Nahaar winner (Tamarkuz): 475 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) ran in previous season's Dubai World Cup, finishing 3235
4 of 5 non-American winners ran in the Al Maktoum Challenge Rd 3 last time, finishing 1248
Silver Charm is the only previous winner to attempt to retain the race, when finishing 6th in 1999.

Other Races


Jockey Club Gold Cup winner (Tonalist): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's Preakness Stakes winner (California Chrome): 1 (1-0-1)
Champions Cup winner (Hokko Tarumae): 40200 (0-1-5)
Diamond Stakes winner (Cat O’Mountain): 06 (0-0-2)
September Stakes winner (Prince Bishop): 69 (0-0-2)
Breeders Cup Distaff (Untapable): 90 (0-0-2)
Kawasaki Kinen winner (Hokko Tarumae): 400 (0-0-3)
Tokyo Daishoten winner (Hokko Tarumae): 6000 (0-0-4)
3 of 5 American trained winners ran in the Breeders' Cup Classic, finishing 211
2 of 5 American trained winners ran in Breeders’ Cup Mile, finishing 92
2 of 5 American trained winners ran in the Donn Handicap last time, finishing 21
2 of 5 American-trained winners ran in the Whitney Handicap, finishing 11
8 of 9 American-trained winner (last 7) ran in previous year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile or Classic

Trainers


USA: 5-5-30 (4 of 5 were on dirt)
Godolphin: 3-4-21
France: 1-1-6
Japan: 1-1-15
GB: 0-5-18
S Africa: 0-3-13
Irish: 0-0-3
Other: 0-0-18
Since this race was inaugurated in 1996, American trainers have won 9 of 19 runnings. Their record improves to 8 of 14 renewals when only including World Cups run on dirt.
Saeed Bin Suroor (2-0-14) won the race 5 times between 1999 and 2006 but since 2007, he has managed just 1 win from his 12 runners (last year), other 11 were unplaced.
Steve Asmussen (1-0-1) won this in 2008 with Curlin.
Katsuhiko Sumii (1-0-2) saddled the winner in 2011 and 4th in 2006.
Charlie Appleby (0-1-2) trained Cat O’Mountain to finish 3rd last year.
Christophe Clement (0-1-3) has seen his last 3 runners in this finish 2nd-4th-5th.
Andrew Balding (0-0-2) has seen Side Glance finish 4th for past 2 years.
Bill Mott (0-0-2) won the inaugural running with Cigar but has seen his 3 runners since 2000 all finish unplaced.

Price


From 2004 to 2008 every running of this race had gone to one of the first two in the betting while the last 6 winners have gone off 10/1, 16/1, 12/1, 20/1, 11/2 & 12/1.
Favourites (4-0-10) have won of 4 of the last 10 but still show a level stakes loss of 1.76. The last 6 favourites in this race have finished unplaced.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4 or 5 (or finished in first 5 in the 2014 World Cup)
- Avoid mares
- USA bred horses do well on dirt
- Finished in the first 2 last time, posting an RPR of 118+
- Run once or twice in 2015
- Won a grade/group 1 worth £250K+
- Won over 1M 2F
- Course winner (or having first start at Meydan)
- European-based that finished in first 4 in Al Maktoum Challenge R3 and/or 2014 World Cup
- US-trained that finished in first 2 in Breeders Cup Classic or Mile.