DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC TRENDS 2015

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The Dubai Sheema Classic is a group 1, run on turf, over 1M 4F. The races takes place at Meydan on Saturday 28th March and will bring together some of the best turf horses from all over the globe. Inaugurated in 1998, the race was run at Nad Al Sheba up until 2009 before being moved to Meydan in 2010.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 1-5-40
5yo: 6-5-46
6yo: 2-6-31
7yo: 1-2-14
8yo+: 0-2-5
5yos have won 6 of last 10, from 33.8% of the total runners.
The only horse aged 7 to win this in last 10 years was bred in New Zealand, so would have been considered a 6yo in the southern hemisphere.

Gender


Fillies/Mares: 540071974218562031 (3-3-18) do well in this race, having gained 3 wins and 3 places from 18 runners (just 13.2% of total runners).

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (1 exeption 6th in St Leger & other was 6th in Kyoto Kinen)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 112+ last time out (exception was a filly who did so on penultimate start)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 117+ in last 2 runs
10 of 10 winners had no more than 2 runs that year
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F (exception won over 1M 3F)
8 of 10 winners had won a group/grade 1

Other Races


Hong Kong Gold Cup winner (Designs On Rome): 12 (1-1-2)
Coronation Cup winner (Cirrus Des Aigles): 12 (1-1-2)
Hong Kong Vase winner (Flintshire): 14385 (1-1-5)
Previous year's Oka Sho winner (Harp Star): 22 (0-2-2)
Northern Dancer Turf winner (Sheikhzayedroad): 2 (0-1-1)
Al Thani Trophy winner (Dubday): 3 (0-1-1)
HH The Emir's Trophy winner (Dubday): 30 (0-1-2)
Breeders Cup Turf winner (Main Sequence): 9026 (0-1-4)
Preis Von Europa winner (Empoli): 3087 (0-1-4)
United Nations Stakes winner (Main Sequence): 05 (0-0-2)
Mac Diarmida Stakes winner (Main Sequence): 00 (0-0-2)
Dubai City Of Gold winner (Sky Hunter): 4077990 (0-0-7)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Japan Cup, finishing 621
3 of 10 winners ran in the Cathay Pacific HK Cup, finishing 135
2 of 10 winners ran in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, finishing 62
2 of 10 winners ran in the Breeders' Cup Turf last time, finishing 33
2 of 10 winners ran in the Arc, finishing 50
2 of 10 winners ran in King George, finishing 03
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Sheema Classic, finishing 22
2 of 2 Japanese-trained winners ran in Tenno Sho (Autumn), finishing 62
2 of 2 Japanese-trained winners ran in Takarazuka Kinen, finishing 23

Trainers


GB: 2-9-27
Japan: 2-2-8
UAE: 2-0-6
France: 1-3-11
S Africa: 1-2-21
Godolphin: 1-2-21
Irish: 1-1-10
Hong Kong: 0-1-3
German: 0-0-6
USA: 0-0-14
Other: 0-0-9
Proportionally horses from France, UAE and Japan have fared best in this race. horses trained in the USA have gained no places from 14 runners, while Godolphin have gained just 1 win from 21 runners in this since 2005.
Mike De Kock (1-2-17) has seen 3 of his 17 runners make the frame.
Corine Barande-Barbe (1-1-2) has trained Cirrus Des Aigles to win this in 2012 & finish 2nd in 2014.
Kojiro Hashiguchi (1-0-1) won this with Heart’s Cry in 2006.
Hiroyoshi Matsuda (0-1-1) & John Moore (0-1-2) have both saddled the runner-up in past 7 years.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-15) won this in 1998 & 2003 but has gained just 1 place from 15 runners in past 10 years.
Andre Fabre (0-0-1) won this in 2004 with Polish Summer.

Price


9 of 10 winners were sent off 9/1 or shorter
Other than Eastern Anthem’s 14/1 win in 2009, all other winners were sent off at single figure prices, with 5 of 10 (including last 3) going off at shorter than 7/2.
Favourites (1-5-13) have won just 1 of the last 10 but still show a level stakes loss of 7.00.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 or 6 (especially 5yos)


- Fillies & mares have a goood record
- Finished in the first 3 last time, posting an RPR of 112+
- Posted an RPR of 117 in last 2 starts
- Run no more than twice in 2015
- Won a grade/group 1
- Won over 1M 4F
- Trained in France, UAE or Japan (avoid US-trained runners)
- Finished in first 5 in 2014 Hong Kong Cup, Sheema Classic, Arc and/or BC Turf
- Finished in first 6 in 2014 Grand Prix de Saint Cloud and/or Japan Cup
- Priced 9/1 or shorter (however favourite has a poor record).