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    Default LINCOLN HANDICAP TRENDS 2015

    The Betway Lincoln Handicap, which will be run at Doncaster on Saturday 28th March, marks the beginning of the British flat turf season. It’s a race steeped in history and is always a lively betting contest, making up the first part of the Spring Double.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    4yo: 4-6-58
    5yo: 3-8-62
    6yo: 3-8-52
    7yo: 0-3-27
    8yo+: 0-5-17
    4 to 6 years old have won the last 10 however they have represented approximately 79.6% of the runners.
    There has only been one winner aged above 6 in the past 20 years.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


    horses carrying 9-1 or more: 4-12-66
    horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 5-14-102
    horses carrying 8-8 or less: 1-4-48
    9 of 10 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-4.
    horses running with a penalty (1-3-14) have a fair record with 4 of 14 making the frame, and 1 winning.
    Top weight: 7002760470 (0-2-10)

    Official Ratings


    horses rated 99 or higher: 2-10-61
    horses rated 90 to 98: 8-19-143
    horses rated 89 or lower: 0-1-12
    8 of 10 winners were officially rated 95 to 104.

    Recent/Past Form


    7 of 10 winners were having their first run of the year (2 of 3 exceptions had been racing in Dubai)
    5 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 2 turf starts
    7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR on one of their last two starts in Britain
    7 of 10 winners (last 4) had had 15 or more career starts
    9 of 10 winners previously gained 2 to 4 career wins
    9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps
    9 of 10 winners had won over 1M+ (exception was 2nd in previous year's Lincoln)
    8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 11K+
    Only 1 of 10 winners had previously won at the track
    10 of 10 winners gained their highest grade win in class 2 or 3

    Other Races
    Previous season's winner (Ocean Tempest): 9030 (0-1-4)
    Highest placed finisher from Woodhurst Construction H'cap to run in this: 420320 (0-4-6)
    LDF Handicap winner (Lincoln): 1 (1-0-1)
    IG Handicap winner (Tres Coronas): 01 (1-0-2)
    Previous year's Irish Lincolnshire winner (Stuccodor): 4 (0-1-1)
    SIS Live Handicap winner (Gabrial): 4 (0-1-1)
    Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial (Mindurownbusiness): 30080 (0-1-5)
    Spring Cup winner (Gabrial's Kaka): 0500 (0-0-4)
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 700
    2 of 10 winners ran in Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 80
    4 of 10 winners had last turf run at Newmarket the previous September to November
    Since 2000 the record of first 5 from Woodhurst Construction H'cap to run in this: 001014301540020320 (3-6-18).

    Trainers


    William Haggas (2-1-4) trained the winner in 2007 & 2010 and also the 3rd in 2012.
    Richard Fahey (1-5-24) trained the winner in 2012 and saddled 2 placed finishers in 2013.
    Michael Stoute (1-0-2), John Ryan (1-0-3), Michael Dods (1-0-3) & John Gosden (1-0-5) have all saddled the winner in past 10 years.
    Julie Camacho (0-2-2) saddled Rio Riva to be placed in 2007 & 2008.
    David Barron (0-2-5) has seen 2 of his 5 runners make the frame, while David O’Meara (0-2-5) saddled the 3rd & 4th last year.
    Trainers who have not had much luck in this are Kevin Ryan (0-0-11), Dandy Nicholls (0-0-10) and Richard Hannon (0-0-4) have failed to saddle a single placed finisher from 25 combined runners.

    Draw (last 10 runnings at Doncaster 2003-2014)


    horses drawn 1 to 7: 4-12-70
    horses drawn 8 to 14: 4-8-70
    horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-10-76
    No strong trends on the draw, though the last 4 runnings at Doncaster on ground described as soft were all won by horses drawn in stalls 1 to 3. The Spring Mile, which takes place earlier on the Lincoln card, can often give pointers as where best to be drawn.



    Price


    No strong trends on prices, 5 of the last 10 runnings have gone to horses in the first 5 while the other 5 winners (including last 4) have gone to horses priced 16/1 or higher.
    Favourites (3-1-12) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 4.33.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 4 to 6
    - Carrying 8-9 to 9-4
    - Officially rated 95 to 104
    - Finished in first 3 last time out
    - Posted career high RPR in last two turf runs
    - Having first run of the season (or has run at Meydan this year)
    - Won over 1M+ (or placed in this race last year)
    - Gained 2 to 4 career wins
    - Previously won 1 to 3 handicaps
    - Previously won at class 2 or 3 level (but no higher)
    - Won a race worth 11K+
    - Finished in first 5 from Woodhurst Construction H'cap at Newmarket in October
    - Trained by William Haggas or Richard Fahey
    - If run on soft or heavy ground, drawn 1 to 3.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (18th March 2015) 


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