LINCOLN HANDICAP TRENDS 2015

[ganjaman2]

The Betway Lincoln Handicap, which will be run at Doncaster on Saturday 28th March, marks the beginning of the British flat turf season. It’s a race steeped in history and is always a lively betting contest, making up the first part of the Spring Double.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 4-6-58
5yo: 3-8-62
6yo: 3-8-52
7yo: 0-3-27
8yo+: 0-5-17
4 to 6 years old have won the last 10 however they have represented approximately 79.6% of the runners.
There has only been one winner aged above 6 in the past 20 years.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 9-1 or more: 4-12-66
horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 5-14-102
horses carrying 8-8 or less: 1-4-48
9 of 10 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-4.
horses running with a penalty (1-3-14) have a fair record with 4 of 14 making the frame, and 1 winning.
Top weight: 7002760470 (0-2-10)

Official Ratings


horses rated 99 or higher: 2-10-61
horses rated 90 to 98: 8-19-143
horses rated 89 or lower: 0-1-12
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 95 to 104.

Recent/Past Form


7 of 10 winners were having their first run of the year (2 of 3 exceptions had been racing in Dubai)
5 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 2 turf starts
7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR on one of their last two starts in Britain
7 of 10 winners (last 4) had had 15 or more career starts
9 of 10 winners previously gained 2 to 4 career wins
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M+ (exception was 2nd in previous year's Lincoln)
8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 11K+
Only 1 of 10 winners had previously won at the track
10 of 10 winners gained their highest grade win in class 2 or 3

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Ocean Tempest): 9030 (0-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from Woodhurst Construction H'cap to run in this: 420320 (0-4-6)
LDF Handicap winner (Lincoln): 1 (1-0-1)
IG Handicap winner (Tres Coronas): 01 (1-0-2)
Previous year's Irish Lincolnshire winner (Stuccodor): 4 (0-1-1)
SIS Live Handicap winner (Gabrial): 4 (0-1-1)
Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial (Mindurownbusiness): 30080 (0-1-5)
Spring Cup winner (Gabrial's Kaka): 0500 (0-0-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 700
2 of 10 winners ran in Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 80
4 of 10 winners had last turf run at Newmarket the previous September to November
Since 2000 the record of first 5 from Woodhurst Construction H'cap to run in this: 001014301540020320 (3-6-18).

Trainers


William Haggas (2-1-4) trained the winner in 2007 & 2010 and also the 3rd in 2012.
Richard Fahey (1-5-24) trained the winner in 2012 and saddled 2 placed finishers in 2013.
Michael Stoute (1-0-2), John Ryan (1-0-3), Michael Dods (1-0-3) & John Gosden (1-0-5) have all saddled the winner in past 10 years.
Julie Camacho (0-2-2) saddled Rio Riva to be placed in 2007 & 2008.
David Barron (0-2-5) has seen 2 of his 5 runners make the frame, while David O’Meara (0-2-5) saddled the 3rd & 4th last year.
Trainers who have not had much luck in this are Kevin Ryan (0-0-11), Dandy Nicholls (0-0-10) and Richard Hannon (0-0-4) have failed to saddle a single placed finisher from 25 combined runners.

Draw (last 10 runnings at Doncaster 2003-2014)


horses drawn 1 to 7: 4-12-70
horses drawn 8 to 14: 4-8-70
horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-10-76
No strong trends on the draw, though the last 4 runnings at Doncaster on ground described as soft were all won by horses drawn in stalls 1 to 3. The Spring Mile, which takes place earlier on the Lincoln card, can often give pointers as where best to be drawn.



Price


No strong trends on prices, 5 of the last 10 runnings have gone to horses in the first 5 while the other 5 winners (including last 4) have gone to horses priced 16/1 or higher.
Favourites (3-1-12) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 4.33.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4 to 6
- Carrying 8-9 to 9-4
- Officially rated 95 to 104
- Finished in first 3 last time out
- Posted career high RPR in last two turf runs
- Having first run of the season (or has run at Meydan this year)
- Won over 1M+ (or placed in this race last year)
- Gained 2 to 4 career wins
- Previously won 1 to 3 handicaps
- Previously won at class 2 or 3 level (but no higher)
- Won a race worth 11K+
- Finished in first 5 from Woodhurst Construction H'cap at Newmarket in October
- Trained by William Haggas or Richard Fahey
- If run on soft or heavy ground, drawn 1 to 3.