IRISH GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2015

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The Boylesports Irish Grand National Day at Fairyhouse always takes place on Easter Monday, which falls on the 6th April. So, unlike last year’s race, this year’s renewal takes place 6 days before the Aintree equivalent, which means there may be fewer raiders travelling over from Great Britain. Lesser exposed chasers have dominated the race in recent years.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-2-18
7yo: 3-5-52
8yo: 3-9-71
9yo: 1-7-62
10yo: 2-4-43
11yo: 0-2-15
12yo+: 0-1-5
horses aged 6 to 8: 7-16-141
horses aged 9 or older: 3-14-125
7 of last 9 winners have been aged 6 to 8
There has been no winners aged over 10 in past 10 years. There have been 3 winners aged 11+ in past 30 years, all 3 were trained in Great Britain.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 10-6 or more: 2-12-108
horses carrying 10-5 or less: 8-18-158
9 of last 10 winners have all carried 10-8 or less (exception carried 10-13)
Of the 34 horses to carry 11-0+ in last 10 years (0-1-34), none have won and only 1 has made the places.
Record of top weight: PPPPFFP8P8 (0-0-10), only 2 of the 10 horses to be allotted top weight have completed the course.
2 of 10 winners were racing from out of the handicap, none by more than 7lbs.

Official Ratings


horses rated 137 or higher: 1-9-85
horses rated 125 to 136: 9-18-171
horses rated 124 or lower: 0-3-10
9 of 19 winners were officially rated 125 to 136.
Since 2007 all 7 winners and 30 of 32 places were filled by horses rated 128 to 142.

Breeding


Irish bred: 9-23-205
French bred: 1-4-32
British bred: 0-3-22
German bred: 0-0-1
USA bred: 0-0-6
9 of 10 winners have been Irish bred though they have represented 77% of the total runners.
4 of 5 French-bred horses were aged 6 or 7 (exception aged 8)

Recent/Past Form


5 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on last chase start (2 exceptions were unplaced in a grade A h’cap chase & 3 others unplaced at Cheltenham Festival)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 131+ on last completed chase start
9 of 10 winners posted a chase RPR of 133+ that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won a chase at a right-handed track (exception had yet to run right-handed over fences but won 2 of 3 hurdles racing RH)
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a 3M point to point)
10 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 12 chases
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 chases
10 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases (5 had yet to win one)
7 of 7 Irish-trained winners had won a chase at Fairyhouse, Navan or Clonmel
5 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in a Grade A or B Leopardstown H'cap Chase since Christmas (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in Ten Up Novice Chase)
9 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (exception had had just 3 chase starts before that season)
7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (2 exceptions were placed in a class 2 or higher chase)
7 of 10 winners won a chase worth 20K+ (2 exceptions placed in a race worth 19K+)
10 of 10 winners had first start in a hurdle, bumper or point to point

Other Races


4M NH Novice Chase winner (Cause Of Causes): 1 (1-0-1)
Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Very Wood): 0F1 (1-0-3)
Nas Na Riogh Novice H'cap Chase winner (Empire Of Dirt): 4 (0-1-1)
Cheltenham Cross Country Chase winner (Rivage D'Or): P4 (0-1-2)
Cork Grand National winner (Vics Canvas): P3 (0-1-2)
Porterstown H'cap Chase winner (Embracing Change): 4P0 (0-1-3)
Woodlands Park Novice Chase winner (Wounded Warrior): 00 (0-0-2)
Daily Mirror Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): RP (0-0-2)
Mercury Engineering Handicap Chase winner (She's Got Grit): 58 (0-0-2)
At The Races Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): PR (0-0-2)
Midlands National winner (Goonyella): PP (0-0-2)
Porter & Co. Beginners Chase winner (Gold Bullet): PFP (0-0-3)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Chase Final winner (Heathfield): U5P (0-0-3)
Punchestown Grand National Trial winner (Embracing Change): 80P5 (0-0-4)
4 of 10 winners had finished in the first 6 in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham that season or the previous season
3 of 3 British-trained winners ran in 4M NH Novice Chase last time, finishing 186
2 of 2 Jonjo O'Neill winners won a 2M 4F chase at Aintree meeting in October
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Handicap Chase, finishing 07
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Thyestes Chase, finishing 10
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Munster National, finishing 0P
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Ten Up Novice Chase, finishing 31
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Ten Up Novice Chase, finishing 1F
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Hugh McMahon Memorial Novice Chase, finishing 41

Trainers


British trained runners (3-3-25) have won 4 renewals in past 11 years.
Arthur Moore (1-2-10) trained the winner in 2011 and also saddled 4 other placed finishers since 2004.
Thomas Gibney (1-0-2) & Mouse Morris (1-0-5) have also both trained the winner in past 10 years.
The Sandra Hughes yard (0-4-15) were responsible for the winner in 2003 and have seen 4 of his 15 runners in last 10 runnings make the places.
Ted Walsh (0-1-1), Gordon Elliot (0-1-5) & Jim Dreaper (0-1-6) have saddled 1 placed finisher.
Several Irish trainers have done poorly in this race in the past decade such as Willie Mullins (0-2-20), Noel Meade (0-0-15), Tony Martin (0-1-13), Paul Nolan (0-1-11) & Tom Taaffe (0-0-6).

Racing Tactics


7 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division early on
3 of 10 winners tracked leaders

Price


It has been a race for outsiders, with 6 of last 10 winners priced between 20/1 & 50/1, although last year, Shutthefrontdoor became first winning favourite this century.
Favourites (1-2-11) have gained 1 win and 2 places in past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 1.00. Prior to last year, you had to go back to 1999 for last winning favourite.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Irish bred (or French bred aged 6 or 7)
- Aged 6 to 10 (ideally 6 to 8)
- Carrying 10-8 or less (no more than 10-13)
- Officially rated 128 to 142
- Had first run in a bumper/hurdle/point to point
- Posted an RPR of 133+ over fences this season
- Won over 3M+
- Run at least twice this season & run in the past 50 days
- Won a chase at right-handed track
- Previously won a chase Fairyhouse, Navan or Clonmel
- Run in 6 to 13 chases (winning 2 to 4)
- Contested no more than 7 handicap chases (& won no more than 2)
- Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 19K+
- Ran in this season’s Munster National, Paddy Power and/or Thyestes Chase
- Ran in a Grade A or B h’cap chase at Leopardstown since Christmas Day
- Finished in first 4 in 2014 or 2015 Ten Up Novice Chase
- Finished in first 5 in 2014 or 2015 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham
- Trained in Great Britain or
- Trained by, Arthur Moore, Michael Hourigan or a smaller Irish yard.