Close

Results 1 to 1 of 1
  1. #1
    DF Jedi ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,945
    Thanks
    358
    Thanked:        1,657
    Karma Level
    319

    Info AINTREE BOWL TRENDS 2015

    The Betfred Bowl Steeplechase is one of three grade 1 races featuring on the opening day of the 2014 Aintree Festival, which kicks off on Thursday 9th April. The 3M 1F chase was upgraded to grade 1 status in 2010 and so will attract a good few of this year’s Gold Cup protagonists. In the last 7 years, Kauto Star, Denman, Imperial Commander & Denman, again, have all been beaten in this after running well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It can often pay to oppose horses that had a hard race at Cheltenham.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 0-1-3
    7yo: 2-6-13
    8yo: 4-5-22
    9yo: 1-1-17
    10yo: 2-1-9
    11yo+: 1-0-6
    12yo+: 0-1-3
    The last 9 winners were aged 7 to 10, 6 were aged 7 or 8 and the 3 winners aged 9 or 10 had all finished in first 3 in previous year’s Betfred Bowl Chase.
    All 3 winners aged 10+ had run in either the Gold Cup or King George (or both) that season.

    Gender
    The two mares (0-1-1) to run in this race since 2000 have finished 2nd.

    Breeding
    Irish Bred: 5-5-32
    French Bred: 4-8-23
    British Bred: 1-2-17
    German Bred: 0-0-1
    No very strong trend on breeding.

    Recent/Past Form
    5 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 last time (4 exceptions unplaced in Gold Cup)
    9 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
    9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 162+ in last 2 completed chase starts
    9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more chases in their career
    9 of 10 winners had won at least 4 chases (exception had finished 2nd in 5 grade 1 chases)
    10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
    10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (4 had won a grade 1 chase)
    7 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase that season

    Other races
    Returning Bowl winner (Silviniaco Conti): P344 (0-0-4)
    Charlie Hall Chase winner (Menorah): 15313 (2-1-5)
    BetBright Cup Chase winner (Many Clouds): 1615 (2-0-4)
    Ryanair Chase winner (Uxizandre): 41P2 (1-1-4)
    Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Boston Bob): 1 (1-0-1)
    Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Many Clouds): 419 (1-0-3)
    Previous season's Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Holywell): 33 (0-2-2)
    Betfair Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 253 (0-2-3)
    King George winner (Silviniaco Conti): 24 (0-1-2)
    Betfred Biggest Racing Supporter Chase winner (Sam Winner): 66 (0-0-2)
    Highest placed finisher from King George to run in this: 241233151 (3-3-9)
    Highest placed finisher from Gold Cup to run in this: P312FF5241 (2-3-10) 6 of these 10 were sent off favourite
    5 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time, finishing 5U264
    2 of 10 winners ran in Ryanair Chase last time, finishing 12
    4 of 10 winners (4 of last 7) ran in previous season's Aintree Bowl, finishing 3333
    4 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 2241
    3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in the Lexus, finishing 162
    3 of 10 winners (3 of last 6) ran in the Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 133
    3 of 10 winners ran in the BetBright Cup, finishing 112
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's RSA Chase, finishing 62
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Charlie Hall Chase, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 43

    Trainers
    The Pipe Yard (3-2-8) have won 4 of last 11, with David Pipe (2-1-5) training back to back winners in 2008 & 2009 and saddled runner-up in 2014.
    Paul Nicholls (2-3-12) won the race in 2010 & 2014 but he’s saddled 4 beaten favourite in past 10 years (all 4 were sent off shorter than 6/4).
    Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-4) has saddle 1 winner, 1 second and 3 thirds from 5 runners since 2000.
    Nicky Henderson (0-2-5) has seen 2 of his 5 runners make the frame.
    Irish-trained runners (2-0-10) have won 2 of last 3, both winners ran in Lexus Chase that season.

    Price
    Only 1 of 10 favourites have won this since 2005
    It has paid to oppose the favourites in this race, with just one winning in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 7.50.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Aged 7 or 8 (or finished in first 3 in this race previously)
    - Had at least 10 career chase starts (won at least 4)
    - Finished in the first 3 in a graded chase last time or unplaced in Gold Cup
    - Posted an RPR of 162+ in one or both of last 2 chase starts
    - Won over 3M+
    - Won a graded chase (ideally a grade 1)
    - Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase this season
    - Finished in first 6 in Gold Cup, Ryanair Chase or bypassed Cheltenham
    - Finished the first 4 in King George, Lexus and/or Hennessy Gold Cup
    - Finished in first 3 in BetBright Cup, Charlie Hall and/or 2014 Aintree Bowl
    - Trained by David Pipe or in Ireland
    - Favourite has a poor record

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (31st March 2015) 


Similar Threads

  1. AINTREE BOWL CHASE TRENDS 2017
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 3rd April 2017, 05:50 PM
  2. AINTREE HURDLE TRENDS 2015
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 4th April 2015, 07:25 PM
  3. AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2015
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 16th March 2015, 12:46 PM
  4. day2 aintree festival trends
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 1st April 2014, 10:44 PM
  5. BETFRED BOWL CHASE TRENDS 2013
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 3rd April 2013, 12:35 AM

Social Networking Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •