AINTREE BOWL TRENDS 2015

[ganjaman2]

The Betfred Bowl Steeplechase is one of three grade 1 races featuring on the opening day of the 2014 Aintree Festival, which kicks off on Thursday 9th April. The 3M 1F chase was upgraded to grade 1 status in 2010 and so will attract a good few of this year’s Gold Cup protagonists. In the last 7 years, Kauto Star, Denman, Imperial Commander & Denman, again, have all been beaten in this after running well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It can often pay to oppose horses that had a hard race at Cheltenham.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-3
7yo: 2-6-13
8yo: 4-5-22
9yo: 1-1-17
10yo: 2-1-9
11yo+: 1-0-6
12yo+: 0-1-3
The last 9 winners were aged 7 to 10, 6 were aged 7 or 8 and the 3 winners aged 9 or 10 had all finished in first 3 in previous year’s Betfred Bowl Chase.
All 3 winners aged 10+ had run in either the Gold Cup or King George (or both) that season.

Gender
The two mares (0-1-1) to run in this race since 2000 have finished 2nd.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 5-5-32
French Bred: 4-8-23
British Bred: 1-2-17
German Bred: 0-0-1
No very strong trend on breeding.

Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 last time (4 exceptions unplaced in Gold Cup)
9 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 162+ in last 2 completed chase starts
9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more chases in their career
9 of 10 winners had won at least 4 chases (exception had finished 2nd in 5 grade 1 chases)
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (4 had won a grade 1 chase)
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase that season

Other races
Returning Bowl winner (Silviniaco Conti): P344 (0-0-4)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Menorah): 15313 (2-1-5)
BetBright Cup Chase winner (Many Clouds): 1615 (2-0-4)
Ryanair Chase winner (Uxizandre): 41P2 (1-1-4)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Boston Bob): 1 (1-0-1)
Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Many Clouds): 419 (1-0-3)
Previous season's Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Holywell): 33 (0-2-2)
Betfair Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 253 (0-2-3)
King George winner (Silviniaco Conti): 24 (0-1-2)
Betfred Biggest Racing Supporter Chase winner (Sam Winner): 66 (0-0-2)
Highest placed finisher from King George to run in this: 241233151 (3-3-9)
Highest placed finisher from Gold Cup to run in this: P312FF5241 (2-3-10) 6 of these 10 were sent off favourite
5 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time, finishing 5U264
2 of 10 winners ran in Ryanair Chase last time, finishing 12
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 7) ran in previous season's Aintree Bowl, finishing 3333
4 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 2241
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in the Lexus, finishing 162
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 6) ran in the Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 133
3 of 10 winners ran in the BetBright Cup, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's RSA Chase, finishing 62
2 of 10 winners ran in the Charlie Hall Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 43

Trainers
The Pipe Yard (3-2-8) have won 4 of last 11, with David Pipe (2-1-5) training back to back winners in 2008 & 2009 and saddled runner-up in 2014.
Paul Nicholls (2-3-12) won the race in 2010 & 2014 but he’s saddled 4 beaten favourite in past 10 years (all 4 were sent off shorter than 6/4).
Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-4) has saddle 1 winner, 1 second and 3 thirds from 5 runners since 2000.
Nicky Henderson (0-2-5) has seen 2 of his 5 runners make the frame.
Irish-trained runners (2-0-10) have won 2 of last 3, both winners ran in Lexus Chase that season.

Price
Only 1 of 10 favourites have won this since 2005
It has paid to oppose the favourites in this race, with just one winning in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 7.50.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 7 or 8 (or finished in first 3 in this race previously)
- Had at least 10 career chase starts (won at least 4)
- Finished in the first 3 in a graded chase last time or unplaced in Gold Cup
- Posted an RPR of 162+ in one or both of last 2 chase starts
- Won over 3M+
- Won a graded chase (ideally a grade 1)
- Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase this season
- Finished in first 6 in Gold Cup, Ryanair Chase or bypassed Cheltenham
- Finished the first 4 in King George, Lexus and/or Hennessy Gold Cup
- Finished in first 3 in BetBright Cup, Charlie Hall and/or 2014 Aintree Bowl
- Trained by David Pipe or in Ireland
- Favourite has a poor record