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    Info RYANAIR GOLD CUP TRENDS 2015

    The Ryanair Gold Cup (formerly Powers Gold Cup) is the highlight of the first day of the Irish Grand National meeting, which begins on Sunday 5th April. It’s a grade 1 novice chase run over 2M 4F and usually attracts many of the best Irish novice chasers that skipped Cheltenham.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 1-3-13
    7yo: 3-9-34
    8yo: 3-1-17
    9yo: 2-0-13
    11yo: 1-0-1
    No very strong age trends though 7 & 8 year olds have won 7 of last 10, including the last 5, though they have represented 65% of the total runners in past 10 years.

    Gender
    Like A Butterfly, who won this in 2005, has been the only female runner in past 10 years. She was also anomalous by virtue of being aged 11, only winner aged over 9 in past 30 years.

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 9-8-56
    French bred: 1-2-12
    British bred: 0-2-7
    USA bred: 0-1-1
    German bred: 0-0-2
    9 of last 10 winners have been Irish bred, though they have represented almost 71.8% of the total runners. French-bred Rebel Fitz broke the sequence of Irish bred winners, though benefitted from Ballycasey’s fall 2 out, who was leading at the time.
    The two USA bred horses to run in this since 2000 gained a win and a place.
    Progeny of Beneficial: 6141 (2-0-4)
    Progeny of Old Vic: 721 (1-1-3)
    Progeny of Flemensfirth: P1 (1-0-2)

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in the first 3 last time out (exception finished 5th in the RSA Chase)
    10 of 10 winners won on 1 or both of last 2 completed starts
    9 of 10 winners (last 8) posted their highest chase RPR on last chase start
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 138+ last time (last 4 winners posted an RPR of 150+ last time)
    9 of 10 winners had their last run in the past 60 days
    10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 5 times over fences
    9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F or further (exception yet to run over further than 2M 2F)
    8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on chase debut (2 exceptions fell)
    7 of 10 posted an RPR of 129+ on first chase start
    8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a graded hurdle (1 exception was 3rd in a Grade B Handicap Hurdle worth 51K+ & other was a 14 length winner on only completed hurdles start)
    7 of 10 winners were officially rated 127+ over hurdles (2 of 3 exceptions had finished in first 4 in a grade 2 hurdle but had no hurdles rating)
    7 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (3 exceptions had won just once over fences)
    9 of 10 winners had won a NH race worth 13K+ (exception had yet to run in a race worth 13K+)
    10 of 10 winners had first start in a pt to pt, bumper or hurdles race

    Other races
    Highest placed finisher from Irish Arkle: UF27115U (2-1-8)
    Crystalski.ie EBF Beginners Chase winner (Gilgamboa): 33P1 (1-2-4)
    Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Clarcam): F241 (1-1-4)
    Follow Navan On Facebook Beginners Chase winner (Azorian): 1 (1-0-1)
    Shannon Airport Novice Chase winner (Gilgamboa): 13 (1-0-2)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Vautour): 1F (1-0-2)
    Previous year's Rathbarry And Glenview Studs Novices Hurdle winner (Valseur Lido): 1P (1-0-2)
    Previous year's Tattersalls Ireland Champion Novice Hurdle winner (Vautour): 2 (0-1-1)
    Flogas Novice Chase winner (Apache Stronghold): 73F (0-1-3)
    Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Valseur Lido): 344 (0-1-3)
    Florida Pearl Novice Chase winner (Shanahan's Turn): P274 (0-1-4)
    Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase winner (Empire Of Dirt): 6P52U (0-1-5)
    Kiliney Novice Chase winner (Vautour): 8F (0-0-2)
    Fairyhouse Supporting Ratoath Beginners Chase winner (Noble Emperor): P2 (0-0-2)
    Drogheda Beginners Chase winner (Wounded Warrior): 45F (0-0-3)
    Ballymore November Festival Beginners Chase winner (Shanahan's Turn): P86 (0-0-3)
    3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Arkle Novice Chase, finishing 311
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing PU1
    2 of 10 winners ran in Like A Butterfly Novice Chase, finishing 31
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Craddockstown Novice Chase, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners won a novice chase at Killarney the previous July over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
    5 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) gained their first chase win at Navan
    3 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a graded hurdle over 2M to 2M 4F at previous year’s National meeting

    Trainers
    Noel Meade (2-1-6) has won the race 3 times since 2003 from just 7 representatives.
    Gordon Elliot (1-0-3) won this race in 2013.
    Willie Mullins (0-3-16) has gained just 3 places from his 19 runners since 2000 and several of those were well fancied (3 were sent off favourite). He has yet to train the winner of this.
    The Sandra Hughes yard (0-2-4) has saddled the runner-up three times in past 10 years.
    Henry De Bromhead (0-1-2), Mouse Morris (0-1-2) & Tony Martin (0-1-2) have all saddled the runner-up in past 4 years.

    Price
    7 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter, though there have been some upsets recently with Jadanli at 25/1 in 2010 and Realt Mor at 10/1 in 2013.
    Favourites (2-4-10) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 3.40.

    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Irish bred (progeny of Beneficial & Old Vic do well)
    - Finished in first 3 last time out in past 60 days
    - Posted an RPR of 138+ last time
    - Finished in first 2 on their chasing debut
    - Won one or both of their last 2 completed chase starts
    - Won over 2M 4F+
    - Won a graded chase (or won just once over fences)
    - Won a NH race worth 19K+
    - Finished in first 4 in a graded hurdle (rated 129+ over hurdles)
    - Had first ever run in a bumper, point to point or hurdles race
    - Gained first chase success at Navan
    - Ran in the Racing Post and/or Drinmore Novice Chase
    - Finished in first 3 in Irish Arkle, Craddockstown and/or Like A Butterfly Novice Chase
    - Trained by Noel Meade

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (31st March 2015), newbie2 (31st March 2015) 


  2. #2
    DF Rookie newbie2's Avatar
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    Default Re: RYANAIR GOLD CUP TRENDS 2015

    Nice post Ganjaman2,

    I love my horses and also the big race trends.

    There is a lot to be said for statistics in these races though I did read at the weekend the bookies seem to be getting in on this and are shortening the price of the trend horses as they know they will be back.

    If that is the case and the prices do not represent value, then I guess using these as a laying tool becomes the next plan of attack.

    Thanks to newbie2

    ganjaman2 (1st April 2015) 


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