ANNIVERSARY 4YO HURDLE TRENDS 2015

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The Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle is the opening race of this year’s Aintree Grand National meeting on Thursday 9th April. The race is usually dominated by horses that ran in the Triumph Hurdle, though in recent years the Fred Winter has also been a good trial, along with the Adonis Hurdle.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 4yos

Gender
Fillies (1-0-5) have gained 1 win (in 2013) from 5 runners in past 10 years. All 4 winning fillies in the past 20 years had bypassed Cheltenham.

Breeding
Irish bred: 4-9-44
French bred: 3-7-31
USA bred: 2-0-5
British bred: 1-4-29
German: 0-0-5
Other: 0-0-2
9 of 10 winners were Irish, French or American bred.
British bred horses finally won this in 2012, after a long drought, though British breds represented the first 3 in the betting that year. They had previously had a very poor record in the race, failing to win any of the previous 10.
10 of 10 winners were sired by a group winner on the flat (last 5 sired by a group 1 winner)
9 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 3 in group 1 on flat

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 138+ last time
8 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times over hurdles (2 exceptions finished in first 2 in a Cheltenham grade 1 last time)
9 of 10 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race 5+ lengths (1 exception won his 2 starts, both in graded company)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 hurdle (exceptions yet to run in a grade 1 but were 3rd in Fred Winter and Adonis Hurdle on previous starts)
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
9 of 10 winners had run on the flat (exception made racecourse debut in a French listed hurdle)

Other Races
Highest placed finisher from Triumph Hurdle: 1112121271 (6-3-10)
Highest placed finishers from Fred Winter H'cap Hurdle winner: 50P23240 (0-3-8)
Triumph Hurdle Trial winner (Hargam): 3134 (1-2-4)
Finale Juvenile Novice Hurdle winner (Bristol De Mai): 2166 (1-1-4)
Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner (Petite Parisienne): 1 (1-0-1)
Scottish Triumph Hurdle winner (Hargam): 30 (0-1-2)
BetBright Risk Free Bet Juvenile Hurdle winner (Devilment): 4 (0-0-1)
Molson Coors Juvenile Hurdle winner (Starchitect): 790 (0-0-3)
7 of 10 winners ran in the Triumph Hurdle last time out, finishing 2112133 (1 exception 3rd in Fred Winter & other was 2nd in Supreme)
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 7) ran in Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 1113
3 of 10 winners ran in the Finesse Juvenile hurdle, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in Betfred TV Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 1F
Last 2 Irish-trained winners both ran in Prestbury Juvenile (finishing 1st & 2nd), Knight Frank Juvenile (2nd & 1st) and Kerry Group 3yo Hurdle (both 1st)

Trainers
Alan King’s (4-1-5) last 5 runners in this have finished 1st-1st-2nd-1st-1st.
Paul Nicholls (1-3-12) has gained 2 wins and 4 places from 14 runners since 2003.
Nicky Henderson (1-2-8) trained Punjabi to finish 2nd in 2007, Binocular to win it in 2008 and was a bit unlucky to see Grandouet get brought down when going well in 2011.
Gordon Elliot (0-2-3) has seen his 3 runners finish 3rd-4th-2nd.
Irish trained horses (1-3-9) have gained 1 win and 3 places from approximately 7.8% of the total runners. Both Gordon Elliot-trained runners to make the frame had run in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle, while the other 2 Irish-trained, to make the frame, had won Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown.

Price
7 of 10 winners were sent off favourite, however in the past 5 years there have been winners at 13/2, 10/1 & 40/1.
Favourites (7-2-10) have won 7 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 10.54.


Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Irish, French or USA bred gelding
- Sired by a group winner on the flat (that won/placed in group 1)
- Raced on the flat (rated 80+)
- Run 4 to 8 times over hurdles (or unbeaten)
- Won at least twice over hurdles
- Finished in first 3 in Triumph Hurdle last time (posting RPR of 138+)
- Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1
- Won a hurdles race by 5 or more lengths (or unbeaten over hurdles)
- First 3 in Finesse, Adonis and/or Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle
- Trained by Alan King (especially), Nicky Henderson, Gordon Elliot or Paul Nicholls
- Favourite has a strong record