AINTREE HURDLE TRENDS 2015

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The Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle takes place on the opening day of the 3-day Aintree Grand National Festival, on Thursday 9th April. A grade 1 run over 2M 4F, it usually attracts several of the Champion Hurdle contenders as well some classy staying hurdlers. This year’s renewal

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-1-2
5yo: 2-4-19
6yo: 3-2-20
7yo: 3-5-26
8yo: 2-2-12
9yo: 0-3-8
10yo+: 0-0-3
All 10 winners have been aged 5 to 8, though that’s hardly surprising considering they have represented 85.6% of the total runners.
2 of 3 placed horses aged 9 were placed in a previous renewal of Aintree Hurdle, other had won previous year’s Champion Hurdle and placed in that season’s Champion.

Gender
Mares (1-2-7) have gained 1 win & 2 places from 7 runners (7.44% of total runners) since 2004.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 8-5-40
French Bred: 1-8-31
British Bred: 1-2-12
American Bred 0-1-3
German Bred: 0-1-4
Irish bred horses have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 44.4% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed hurdles start (3 of 4 exceptions unplaced in a grade 1 at Cheltenham Festival)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 148+ last time (last 7 posted RPR of 154+ last time)
10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 5 hurdles that season
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
8 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdles (both exceptions were Al Eile winning it for 2nd and 3rd time)
8 of 10 winners had 6 to 13 previous hurdles starts (both exceptions were Al Eile winning it for 2nd and 3rd time)
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (exception finished 3rd in Champion Hurdle on previous start)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 hurdle (1 exception had yet to run in a grade 1 & other was 7th in Champion Hurdle last time)
6 of 10 winners had previously won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle at Aintree Festival (1 exception runner-up in this race the previous year and 2 of 3 others were having first course start)

Other races
Highest placed finisher from Champion Hurdle: F232017351 (2-3-10)
Dornan Engineering Hurdle winner (Rock On Ruby): 11 (2-0-2)
Kingwell Hurdle winner (Blue Heron): 21 (1-1-2)
Ryanair Hurdle (Hurricane Fly): 41 (1-0-2)
Relkeel Hurdle winner (Rock On Ruby): 314 (1-0-3)
Coral Cup winner (Aux Ptits Soins): 3 (0-1-1)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 92 (0-1-2)
Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 4 (0-0-1)
Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Jezki):
6 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Aintree Hurdle, finishing 6101F2
6 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle last time, finishing 7F2343
3 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Ryanair Hurdle, finishing 641
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Red Mills Trial Hurdle, finishing 21
3 of 5 British-trained winners ran in International Hurdle, finishing 111
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Doran Engineering Hurdle, finishing 11

Trainers
Nicky Henderson (2-1-10) has trained Oscar Whiskey to win this in 2011 & 2012.
Paul Nicholls (1-0-9) won this in 2013 with Zarkandar, though his other 8 runners have all finished unplaced.
Willie Mullins (0-4-5) has saddled a placed finisher in 4 of the last 6 runnings, his other runner finished 3rd of 7 last year.
David Pipe (0-2-4) has filled 2 places from 4 runners.
Harry Fry (0-1-1) trained Rock On Ruby to finish 2nd (beaten a head) last year.
Irish-trained runners (5-7-28) have a fine record in this race, winning 6 of the last 12. They were not represented in 2004 and in the other 4 years they filled one of the first 3 places.

Price
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were priced 6/1 or shorter
No strong trends on prices and while no winner has gone off bigger than 12/1, the favourite also doesn’t have a great record.
Favourites (2-4-12) have won just 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 6.68.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 to 8
- Irish bred
- Had 6 to 13 career hurdles starts (won at least 3)
- Second or third season hurdler (or previous winner)
- Run in 2 to 5 hurdles this season
- Posted an RPR of 154+ last time
- Ran in the past 40 days
- Won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1 hurdle
- Previously won at Aintree Festival (or having first course start)
- Ran in the Champion Hurdle or Coral Cup last time
- Ran in the 2014 Ryanair and/or Aintree Hurdle
- Finished in first 2 in Red Mills Trial, International and/or Dornan Engineering Hurdle
- Trained by Nicky Henderson or in Ireland