MILDMAY NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2015

[ganjaman2]

The Betfred Mobile Mildmay Novice Chase is a grade 1 run over 3 miles 1 furlong and is the third race on Friday 10th April, the second day of Aintree’s Grand National meeting. The RSA Chase had been the race where most clues were found up to 2010 (5 of 6 winners between 2005 & 2010 had run in it) but the last 4 winners had missed the RSA.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-0-5
6yo: 2-4-15
7yo: 4-10-40
8yo: 1-1-17
9yo: 0-1-7
10yo+: 1-1-3
horses aged 5 to 7: 8-14-60
horses aged 8+: 2-3-27
Aces Four who won it as an 8yo didn’t have his first run until age 5 while Like A Butterfly, who won it aged 11, didn’t have her first run until age 7.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 5-8-50
French Bred: 5-3-22
British Bred: 0-5-11
German Bred: 0-1-2
Other: 0-0-2
All 10 winners were Irish or French bred, though they represented around 82.8% of total runners. French Bred horses have best individual record, winning 5 of last 10 from 25.2% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 6 chases
9 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed chase start
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 on all completed chase starts (2 exceptions finished out of first 4 once, in a novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 60 days
7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (3 exceptions won over 2M 4F)
10 of 10 winners had their first run in a bumper, point to point or French hurdle
10 of 10 winners had contested a grade 1 chase or hurdle
7 of 10 winners (last 5) had finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase or hurdle
Excluding chase starts at the Cheltenham Festival, the 10 winners ran in 37 chases. They completed on 34 of those 37 starts, finishing in the first 3 in 33 of 34.


Other races
Highest placed finisher from RSA Chase winner: 31135545 (2-2-8)
Reynoldstown Novice Chase winner (Ainsi Fideles): 531F35 (1-1-6)
Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Wounded Warrior): 1 (1-0-1)
Cheltenham Club Novices' Chase winner (Kings Palace): P343 (0-1-4)
Ryman Stationer Cheltenham Business Club Novice Chase winner (Kings Palace): 43 (0-0-2)
Pendil Novice Chase winner (Irish Saint): FPP (0-0-3)
Worcester Novice Chase winner (Carraig Mor): 546 (0-0-3)
8 of 10 winners ran in a chase at Cheltenham Festival
5 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing 514P2
2 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in previous year's Liverpool or Aintree Hurdle
2 of 10 winners ran in Reynoldstown Novice Chase, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in Feltham Chase, finishing 21
2 of 2 Irish-trained winner had previously won a chase at Naas

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-1-13) has trained 3 of last 10 winners of this.
Nicky Henderson (1-1-7) trained the winner in 2003 & 2010.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-2) saddled the 2nd in 2008.
Sue Smith last had a runner in this in 2004, when she saddled the winner.
Irish-trained runners (2-2-9) have gained 2 wins & 2 places from 9 runners (10.3% of total runners).

Price
10 of 10 winners were priced between 7/4 and 7/1
Favourites (4-2-11) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a £1 level stakes profit of 1.63.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 to 7
- French breds do well
- Run in 3 to 6 chases (winning at least 2)
- Finished in first 3 in all chases starts (excluding Cheltenham Festival)
- Won over 3M+ (or 2nd in a 3M grade 1 or 2 chase)
- Finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase or hurdle
- Had first run under rules in a bumper or hurdle
- Finished in first 5 in the RSA Chase
- Finished in first 3 in Feltham and/or Reynoldstown Novice Chase
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland (and won a Naas chase)
- Priced between 7/4 to 7/1