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    Info MAGHULL NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS 2015

    The Doom Bar Maghull Novices' Chase is run over 2 miles and is one of three grade 1’s that make up part of a top class supporting card to the Aintree Grand National, on Saturday 5th April. Between 2002 & 2012, 10 of 11 winners had run in the Arkle on their previous start, though the past 2 winners of this both bypassed Cheltenham.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 2-4-13
    6yo: 4-1-15
    7yo: 1-3-25
    8yo: 3-3-12
    9yo+: 0-1-6
    5yos won the race 4 times in 6 years between 2002 & 2007 but 2007 was the final year they received a weight for age allowance. Since 2008 their 3 representatives have produced 2 seconds, so they’ve still managed to do well enough at level weights.

    Breeding
    French Bred: 5-4-24
    Irish Bred: 2-4-29
    German Bred: 2-2-6
    British Bred: 1-1-9
    American Bred 0-1-1
    Other: 0-0-2
    Chasers bred on the continent have done best in this with 7 of 10 winners being French or German bred. Their combined record reads 7-6-30.
    British bred runners gained their first win since 1997 when Special Tiara won a below par renewal in 2013.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start
    8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 154+ last time
    10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 6 chases
    9 of 10 winners had last run between 21 and 42 days
    10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season
    8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (1 exception was 2nd in Arkle on previous start)
    9 of 10 winners finished in first 2 in a grade 1 or 2 chase (exception 2nd in a grade 3, yet to run in grade 1 or 2)
    The 10 winners' previous form in chases over trips of 2M 3F or shorter reads 122221312F21112211211121111125F151. They finished in first 3 in 30 of 34 starts.

    Other races
    Arkle winner (Un De Sceaux): 7211 (2-1-4)
    Highest placed Arkle finisher to run in this: 72211211P3 (4-3-10)
    Kingmaker Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 2511 (2-1-4)
    John O'Gaunt Beginners Chase winner (Three Kingdoms): 1 (1-0-1)
    Lightning Novice Chase winner (Three Kingdoms): 1 (1-0-1)
    Weatherbys Private Banking Novices' Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): P1 (1-0-2)
    Wayward Lad Novices' Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 6F1 (1-0-3)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Sizing Granite): 2 (0-1-1)
    Betdaq 0% Multiples Novices' Chase winner (Josses Hill): 2 (0-1-1)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Clarcam): 32 (0-1-2)
    Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 727 (0-1-3)
    7 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle last time, finishing 23F1221 (last 2 winners bypassed Cheltenham)
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Lightning Novice Chase, finishing 21
    2 of 10 winners ran in Wayward Lad Novice Chase, finishing 21
    2 of 10 winners ran in Kingmaker Chase, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners won a 2M 2F class 3 Exeter Novice Chase before Christmas

    Trainers
    Paul Nicholls (2-4-12) has trained the winner in 2003, 2007 & 2010.
    Nicky Henderson (2-0-4) won the race in 2011 & 2012 and has had no runner in past 2 years.
    Henry De Bromhead (1-0-2) trained the winner in 2013.
    Nicky Richards (0-2-4) has saddled 1 placed finishers since 2005, at prices of 40/1 & 12/1.
    Irish-trained runners (1-2-14) had their first winner of this in 20 years when Special Tiara won it in 2013.

    Price
    9 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter
    9 of last 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting, Special Tiara at 20/1 bucked the trend in 2013.
    Favourites (5-3-10) have won 5 of the last 10 and no favourite has finished worse than 3rd in past 10 years, level stakes profit of 1.68.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - French or German bred
    - Finished in first 3 on all chases starts over 2M-2M 3F
    - Had last run between 21 & 42 days ago
    - Posted an RPR of 154+ last time
    - Run 3 to 6 times this season
    - Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
    - Finished in first 2 in a grade 1 or 2 chase
    - Finished in first 2 in Kingmaker, Lightning and/or Wayward Lad Novice Chase
    - Finished in first 3 in the Arkle last time
    - Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson
    - Priced 6/1 or shorter

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (8th April 2015), neilb (8th April 2015) 


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