MAGHULL NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS 2015

[ganjaman2]

The Doom Bar Maghull Novices' Chase is run over 2 miles and is one of three grade 1’s that make up part of a top class supporting card to the Aintree Grand National, on Saturday 5th April. Between 2002 & 2012, 10 of 11 winners had run in the Arkle on their previous start, though the past 2 winners of this both bypassed Cheltenham.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-4-13
6yo: 4-1-15
7yo: 1-3-25
8yo: 3-3-12
9yo+: 0-1-6
5yos won the race 4 times in 6 years between 2002 & 2007 but 2007 was the final year they received a weight for age allowance. Since 2008 their 3 representatives have produced 2 seconds, so they’ve still managed to do well enough at level weights.

Breeding
French Bred: 5-4-24
Irish Bred: 2-4-29
German Bred: 2-2-6
British Bred: 1-1-9
American Bred 0-1-1
Other: 0-0-2
Chasers bred on the continent have done best in this with 7 of 10 winners being French or German bred. Their combined record reads 7-6-30.
British bred runners gained their first win since 1997 when Special Tiara won a below par renewal in 2013.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 154+ last time
10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 6 chases
9 of 10 winners had last run between 21 and 42 days
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (1 exception was 2nd in Arkle on previous start)
9 of 10 winners finished in first 2 in a grade 1 or 2 chase (exception 2nd in a grade 3, yet to run in grade 1 or 2)
The 10 winners' previous form in chases over trips of 2M 3F or shorter reads 122221312F21112211211121111125F151. They finished in first 3 in 30 of 34 starts.

Other races
Arkle winner (Un De Sceaux): 7211 (2-1-4)
Highest placed Arkle finisher to run in this: 72211211P3 (4-3-10)
Kingmaker Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 2511 (2-1-4)
John O'Gaunt Beginners Chase winner (Three Kingdoms): 1 (1-0-1)
Lightning Novice Chase winner (Three Kingdoms): 1 (1-0-1)
Weatherbys Private Banking Novices' Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): P1 (1-0-2)
Wayward Lad Novices' Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 6F1 (1-0-3)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Sizing Granite): 2 (0-1-1)
Betdaq 0% Multiples Novices' Chase winner (Josses Hill): 2 (0-1-1)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Clarcam): 32 (0-1-2)
Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 727 (0-1-3)
7 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle last time, finishing 23F1221 (last 2 winners bypassed Cheltenham)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Lightning Novice Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in Wayward Lad Novice Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in Kingmaker Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners won a 2M 2F class 3 Exeter Novice Chase before Christmas

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (2-4-12) has trained the winner in 2003, 2007 & 2010.
Nicky Henderson (2-0-4) won the race in 2011 & 2012 and has had no runner in past 2 years.
Henry De Bromhead (1-0-2) trained the winner in 2013.
Nicky Richards (0-2-4) has saddled 1 placed finishers since 2005, at prices of 40/1 & 12/1.
Irish-trained runners (1-2-14) had their first winner of this in 20 years when Special Tiara won it in 2013.

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter
9 of last 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting, Special Tiara at 20/1 bucked the trend in 2013.
Favourites (5-3-10) have won 5 of the last 10 and no favourite has finished worse than 3rd in past 10 years, level stakes profit of 1.68.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French or German bred
- Finished in first 3 on all chases starts over 2M-2M 3F
- Had last run between 21 & 42 days ago
- Posted an RPR of 154+ last time
- Run 3 to 6 times this season
- Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Finished in first 2 in a grade 1 or 2 chase
- Finished in first 2 in Kingmaker, Lightning and/or Wayward Lad Novice Chase
- Finished in first 3 in the Arkle last time
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson
- Priced 6/1 or shorter