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    The Crabbie’s Foxhunters' Chase takes place on the opening day of Aintree’s Grand National meeting, on Thursday 9th April. The race is run over the Grand National fences, over a trip of 2M 5½F and is restricted to amateur riders. horses that have fared well in the Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase have struggled to repeat the feat here.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    7yo: 0-2-9
    8yo: 0-0-17
    9yo: 1-4-41
    10yo: 2-4-48
    11yo: 4-6-60
    12yo: 2-2-44
    13yo+: 1-2-30
    9 of 10 winners were aged 10 or older, though they have accounted for 73.1% of total runners.
    2 winners aged 12 were Scots Grey (placed in 4 class 1 chases & had been rated over 140 over fences) and Cloudy Lane (grade 2 chase winner that had formerly been rated over 150 over fences).
    The one 14yo winner was Tartan Snow (at 100/1), who then finished 2nd as a 14yo. Clearly a horse that thrives over the Aintree fences.
    horses aged 8 or younger have gained no wins and just 2 places from 26 runners.

    Irish Bred: 4-11-151
    French Bred: 3-6-44
    British Bred: 3-3-47
    Other: 0-0-7
    Irish bred runners have accounted for 60.6% of the total runners but have only won 4 of the last 10 renewals. French & British bred horses have won 6 of last 10 from just 36.5% of total runners.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start (exception won on penultimate start)
    8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 130+ on last completed chase start
    9 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 runs
    9 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days (1 exception was Katarino winning the race for a second year after not racing since the previous year's win)
    9 of 10 winners had gained 1 or 2 wins that season (Katarino had not run that season before winning it for second time)
    9 of 10 winners had run in no more than 8 hunter chases
    7 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 previous hunter chase
    9 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or above chase (exception trained in Ireland & had won a listed hurdle)
    10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
    7 of 9 British-trained winners had won a chase at Newbury and/or Haydock

    Cheltenham Festival
    Christies Foxhunters Chase winner: 6U (0-0-2)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Christies Foxhunter Chase, finishing FU6
    You have to go back to 1993 and Double Silk for the last horse to do the Cheltenham/Aintree Hunter chase double.
    Only 3 of the last 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (and 2 of those failed to completed the course at Cheltenham). In 2002 the 3rd and 2nd from the Christies Foxhunters finished 1st and 2nd in this but since then all 6 runners that won or placed at Cheltenham to run in this have been unplaced.

    Other Races
    Previous year's winner (Warne): 1U2U792 (1-2-7)
    Bambury Bookmakers Hunters Chase winner (Last Time D'Albain): U41 (1-0-3)
    BJP Insurance Brokers Hunters' Chase winner (Twirling Magnet): 1FUP (1-0-4)
    Aquaculture Hunters' Chase winner (Douglas Julian): 2 (0-1-1)
    United Hunts Challenge Cup winner (Chosen Milan): 20 (0-1-2)
    Christies Foxhunters Chase winner (On The Fringe): 6U (0-0-2)
    Donohue Marquee Champion Hunter Chase winner (On The Fringe): 0U (0-0-2)
    Whitelaw Challenge Cup winner (No Loose Change): PF7 (0-0-3)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Christies Foxhunter Chase, finishing FU6
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 1U4
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Walrus hunter Chase, finishing 11

    Racing Tactics
    8 of 10 winners led or raced prominently through the race
    Typically in these one lap races over the National fences you do need to be up amongst the leading 9 or 10.

    Brian Hamilton (1-0-2) has saddled Warne to finish 4th & 1st in past 2 runnings.
    Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-2) and Richard Newland (1-0-3) have both trained the winner in past 5 years.
    Enda Bolger (0-1-2) trained Mossey Joe to finish 3rd in 2014.
    Jonjo O’Neill (0-1-4) trained the runner-up in 2010.
    Willie Mullins (0-1-6) has seen 2 of his 5 runners finish in the first 4 and he saddled Boxer Georg of finish 2nd, 8th, 10th & unseat in past 4 runnings.
    Paul Nicholls (0-1-8) last won this in 2002 but since then he has seen just 1 of his 13 runners make the places.
    Irish trained runners (1-6-50) have gained 1 win and 6 places from 50 runners. They have been responsible for 4 favourites in that time (all 4 were beaten).

    Sam Waley-Cohen (3-2-9) has proven himself one of the most effective jockeys over the National fences, and he has done particularly well in this race, riding 3 winners and 2 seconds in the past 10 years.

    8 of 10 winners were priced between 3/1 and 8/1
    Silver Adonis (2010) at 50/1 and Tartan Snow (2013) at 100/1 have been the only two double figure price winners since 2000.
    Favourites (3-1-12) have won 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.83. In 4 of the last 7 years where favourite was beaten, it was trained in Ireland (all Irish favourites beaten).

    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Aged 10 to 12
    - French & British bred runners favoured
    - Finished in the first 3 last time in the past 40 days
    - Posted an RPR of 130+ on last completed start
    - Won on 1 of last 2 starts
    - Won 2 or more chases under rules
    - Won over 2M 4F+
    - Won a class 3 or better chase
    - Won 1 or 2 races this season
    - Previously run in 8 or fewer hunter chases
    - Ideally has won a chase at Newbury and/or Haydock
    - Finished in first 4 in last year’s renewal
    - Avoid horses that finished in first 3 in Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase
    - Tends to race prominently
    - Trained in Great Britain
    - Sam Waley-Cohen on board is a plus
    - Priced between 3/1 and 8/1

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (8th April 2015) 

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