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    Info CRABBIE'S FOXHUNTERS' CHASE TRENDS 2015

    The Crabbie’s Foxhunters' Chase takes place on the opening day of Aintree’s Grand National meeting, on Thursday 9th April. The race is run over the Grand National fences, over a trip of 2M 5½F and is restricted to amateur riders. horses that have fared well in the Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase have struggled to repeat the feat here.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    7yo: 0-2-9
    8yo: 0-0-17
    9yo: 1-4-41
    10yo: 2-4-48
    11yo: 4-6-60
    12yo: 2-2-44
    13yo+: 1-2-30
    9 of 10 winners were aged 10 or older, though they have accounted for 73.1% of total runners.
    2 winners aged 12 were Scots Grey (placed in 4 class 1 chases & had been rated over 140 over fences) and Cloudy Lane (grade 2 chase winner that had formerly been rated over 150 over fences).
    The one 14yo winner was Tartan Snow (at 100/1), who then finished 2nd as a 14yo. Clearly a horse that thrives over the Aintree fences.
    horses aged 8 or younger have gained no wins and just 2 places from 26 runners.

    Breeding
    Irish Bred: 4-11-151
    French Bred: 3-6-44
    British Bred: 3-3-47
    Other: 0-0-7
    Irish bred runners have accounted for 60.6% of the total runners but have only won 4 of the last 10 renewals. French & British bred horses have won 6 of last 10 from just 36.5% of total runners.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start (exception won on penultimate start)
    8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 130+ on last completed chase start
    9 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 runs
    9 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days (1 exception was Katarino winning the race for a second year after not racing since the previous year's win)
    9 of 10 winners had gained 1 or 2 wins that season (Katarino had not run that season before winning it for second time)
    9 of 10 winners had run in no more than 8 hunter chases
    7 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 previous hunter chase
    9 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or above chase (exception trained in Ireland & had won a listed hurdle)
    10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
    7 of 9 British-trained winners had won a chase at Newbury and/or Haydock

    Cheltenham Festival
    Christies Foxhunters Chase winner: 6U (0-0-2)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Christies Foxhunter Chase, finishing FU6
    You have to go back to 1993 and Double Silk for the last horse to do the Cheltenham/Aintree Hunter chase double.
    Only 3 of the last 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (and 2 of those failed to completed the course at Cheltenham). In 2002 the 3rd and 2nd from the Christies Foxhunters finished 1st and 2nd in this but since then all 6 runners that won or placed at Cheltenham to run in this have been unplaced.

    Other Races
    Previous year's winner (Warne): 1U2U792 (1-2-7)
    Bambury Bookmakers Hunters Chase winner (Last Time D'Albain): U41 (1-0-3)
    BJP Insurance Brokers Hunters' Chase winner (Twirling Magnet): 1FUP (1-0-4)
    Aquaculture Hunters' Chase winner (Douglas Julian): 2 (0-1-1)
    United Hunts Challenge Cup winner (Chosen Milan): 20 (0-1-2)
    Christies Foxhunters Chase winner (On The Fringe): 6U (0-0-2)
    Donohue Marquee Champion Hunter Chase winner (On The Fringe): 0U (0-0-2)
    Whitelaw Challenge Cup winner (No Loose Change): PF7 (0-0-3)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Christies Foxhunter Chase, finishing FU6
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 1U4
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Walrus hunter Chase, finishing 11

    Racing Tactics
    8 of 10 winners led or raced prominently through the race
    Typically in these one lap races over the National fences you do need to be up amongst the leading 9 or 10.

    Trainers
    Brian Hamilton (1-0-2) has saddled Warne to finish 4th & 1st in past 2 runnings.
    Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-2) and Richard Newland (1-0-3) have both trained the winner in past 5 years.
    Enda Bolger (0-1-2) trained Mossey Joe to finish 3rd in 2014.
    Jonjo O’Neill (0-1-4) trained the runner-up in 2010.
    Willie Mullins (0-1-6) has seen 2 of his 5 runners finish in the first 4 and he saddled Boxer Georg of finish 2nd, 8th, 10th & unseat in past 4 runnings.
    Paul Nicholls (0-1-8) last won this in 2002 but since then he has seen just 1 of his 13 runners make the places.
    Irish trained runners (1-6-50) have gained 1 win and 6 places from 50 runners. They have been responsible for 4 favourites in that time (all 4 were beaten).

    Jockeys
    Sam Waley-Cohen (3-2-9) has proven himself one of the most effective jockeys over the National fences, and he has done particularly well in this race, riding 3 winners and 2 seconds in the past 10 years.

    Price
    8 of 10 winners were priced between 3/1 and 8/1
    Silver Adonis (2010) at 50/1 and Tartan Snow (2013) at 100/1 have been the only two double figure price winners since 2000.
    Favourites (3-1-12) have won 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.83. In 4 of the last 7 years where favourite was beaten, it was trained in Ireland (all Irish favourites beaten).

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Aged 10 to 12
    - French & British bred runners favoured
    - Finished in the first 3 last time in the past 40 days
    - Posted an RPR of 130+ on last completed start
    - Won on 1 of last 2 starts
    - Won 2 or more chases under rules
    - Won over 2M 4F+
    - Won a class 3 or better chase
    - Won 1 or 2 races this season
    - Previously run in 8 or fewer hunter chases
    - Ideally has won a chase at Newbury and/or Haydock
    - Finished in first 4 in last year’s renewal
    - Avoid horses that finished in first 3 in Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase
    - Tends to race prominently
    - Trained in Great Britain
    - Sam Waley-Cohen on board is a plus
    - Priced between 3/1 and 8/1

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (8th April 2015) 


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