NELL GWYN STAKES TRENDS 2015

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The Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes takes place at Newmarket on Wednesday 15th April. It is a group 3 run over 7 furlongs and is one of the main trials for the 1000 Guineas.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yo fillies

Breeding
9 of 10 winners were by a sire who won a group 1 over a mile or shorter at 2 or 3

Weight
Only 6 fillies have carried a 3lb penalty in this since 2005, 2 have won and the other 4 were placed.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (exception was 3rd in a Kempton condition stakes)
10 of 10 winners had won a race as a 2yo
9 of 10 winners had their last start between 19th September and 3rd November
5 of 10 winners ran at Newmarket on their previous turf start
10 of 10 winners had won over 6F to 8F
5 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (3 of 5 exceptions won their maiden on last start and other 2 had placed in listed company)
4 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (4 exceptions had not run here and 1 other was placed on only course start in a listed race)

Other Races
Highest placed finisher from the Rockfel: 31100 (2-1-5)
Highest placed finisher from the Albany Stakes: 026831 (1-2-6)
Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes winner (New Providence): 3 (0-1-1)
Sweet Solera Stakes winner (Muraaqaba): 0 (0-0-1)
Watch German Races Live At german-tote.com Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Marsh Hawk): 8 (0-0-1)
Dubai Duty Free Full Of Surprises EBF Fillies Conditions Stakes winner (Marsh Hawk): 5 (0-0-1)
Cheveley Park Stud Nursery winner (Astrelle): 00 (0-0-2)
British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes winner (Muraaqba): 664 (0-0-3)
Bosra Sham Stakes winner (Terror): 506 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Firth Of Clyde Stakes, finishing 03
2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Albany Stakes, finishing 32

Trainers
Richard Fahey (2-1-4) trained the winner in 2011 & 2014 and a placed finisher in 2012. His 2011 winner, Barefoot Lady, was runner-up in Rockingham Stakes on previous start, just like Bond’s Girl.
John Gosden (2-1-7) trained the winner in 2005 & 2008.
Richard Hannon (1-1-5) saddled the winner in 2012 & 2nd in 2013.
Marco Botti (0-1-2) and David Simcock (0-1-3) have both saddled 1 placed finisher.

Price
No strong trends on prices though 3 of the last 4 winners went off 14/1, 28/1 & 10/1.
Favourites (3-4-10) have won 3 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 3.70.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a filly:
- Sired by horse who won a group 1 as a 2yo or 3yo
- Having first turf start of the season
- Had last turf run between 19th September and 3rd November
- Won a race over 6F to 8F as a 2yo
- Course winner (or having first run here)
- Won a group or listed race (or won maiden last time out)
- Ran at Newmarket on last turf start
- Finished in first 3 in Rockfel, Albany and/or Firth Of Clyde Stakes
- Trained by John Gosden or Richard Fahey