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    Info CRAVEN STAKES TRENDS 2015

    The Group 3 Novae Bloodstock Insurance Craven Stakes takes place at Newmarket on Thursday 17th April. It is run over the Rowley Mile, the same course and distance the 2000 Guineas will be run over in early May. The last horse to do the double was Haafhd in 2004.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age
    Race for 3yos

    Weight
    horses carrying a 3lb penalty: 87419621151 (4-1-11)

    Breeding
    7 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 3 in a 1M group 1 at 2 or 3 years old (2 of 3 others were sired by Arakan)
    10 of 10 winners were born no later than 7th April

    Recent/Past Form
    10 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season
    10 of 10 winners had won a race as a 2yo
    8 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo (2 exceptions were placed first time out and won second start)
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 82+ on first career start
    6 of 9 British-trained winners made their debut as a 2yo at Newmarket (3 exceptions were from Hannon yard, 2 made debut at Newbury & other at Leicester)
    10 of 10 winners had last start between 15 September and 3 November
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 108+ on last start
    7 of 10 winners had previously won at Newmarket (3 exceptions having first course start)
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 7F+
    9 of 10 winners contested a group race as a 2yo (6 won, 1 placed, 2 unplaced in Dewhurst), 1 exception was unbeaten in 2 runs
    8 of 9 British-trained winners ran at Newmarket or Doncaster on their previous start (exception won National Stakes)

    Other Races
    Champagne Stakes winner (Estidhkaar): 811 (2-0-3)
    Railway Stakes winner (Kool Kompany): 1 (1-0-1)
    Pheasant Inn Maiden Stakes winner (Estidhkaar): 1 (1-0-1)
    Richmond Stakes winner (Ivawood): 72 (0-1-2)
    July Stakes winner (Ivawood): 25 (0-1-2)
    Autumn Stakes winner (Commemorative): 5 (0-0-1)
    Flying Scotsman Stakes winner (Nafaqa): 6 (0-0-1)
    Highest placed finisher from Champagne Stakes: 8134112 (3-2-7)
    Highest placed finisher from Dewhurst: 712115 (3-1-6)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Champagne Stakes, finishing 311
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst last time out, finishing 755
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy last time out, finishing 24
    2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Solario Stakes, finishing 14
    2 of 10 winners ran in Weatherbys EBF Maiden at Newmarket in July, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in National Stakes, finishing 41
    2 of 3 Richard-Hannon trained winners ran in Winkfield Stakes, finishing 21
    6 of 10 winners had won a 2yo maiden at Newmarket over 6F to 1M between July & November

    Trainers
    The Richard Hannon yard (3-4-15) have been responsible for the last 3 winners, and also won this in 2001 & 2003. All 3 Hannon winners in past 10 years had won a group race at Glorious Goodwood as 2yos.
    Barry Hills (1-2-5) trained the winner in 2004 & 2006.
    John Gosden (0-2-5) has seen 2 of his 5 runners in past 10 years make the places.
    Aidan O’Brien trained the third in 2008.

    Price
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) came from the first 3 in the betting
    The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 12/1 and the only winner were sent off bigger than 9/2 since 2005.
    Favourites (6-1-10) have won 6 of the last 10, including 5 of the last 6 but show a level stakes profit of 1.28.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Sire won or placed in a 1M group 1 as a 2 or 3 year old (or by Arakan)
    - Having first run of the season
    - Won a race over 7F+ as a 2yo
    - Won on first start as a 2yo, posting RPR of 82+ (ideally at Newmarket)
    - Contested a group race or unbeaten
    - Had last run at Newmarket or Doncaster between 15/09/14 & 04/11/14
    - Posted an RPR of 108+ on last outing
    - Course winner (or having first course start)
    - Finished in first 4 in Solario, Winkfield, National and/or Champagne Stakes
    - Finished in first 5 in Racing Post Trophy or Dewhurst Stakes last time
    - Trained by Richard Hannon or Barry Hills
    - From first 3 in the betting

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    neilb (14th April 2015) 


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