The Coral Scottish Grand National takes place at Ayr on Saturday 18th April. It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 4M ½F. It often pays to avoid horses that ran in the Aintree Grand National, especially where there has only been a 7 day gap between the 2 races.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age of the winners has been fairly spread out.
In 2009 Hello Bud (aged 11) became the first horse aged over 10 to won the race since 1996. Merigo followed up that feat when winning the race for a second time in 2012, also at age 11. Both 11yo winners won their previous start, in a handicap chase over 3M+, posting an RPR of 140 in the process.
Irish Bred: 4-18-139
French Bred: 4-7-62
British Bred: 2-4-42
American Bred: 0-1-4
NZ Bred: 0-0-2
French bred horses have won 4 of last 10 from less than 25% of total runners.
In the past 7 years French bred horses have won 4 and Irish breds have won other 3.
horses carrying 11-7 to 11-13: 0-1-19
horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 1-3-14
horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 1-10-58
horses carrying 10-0 to 10-6: 5-14-124
horses carrying 9-13 or less: 3-2-34
8 of 10 winners carried 10-6 or less, though they represented 63.5% of total runners.
The last 3 winners to carry more than 10-6 to victory were Irish bred chasers.
Top Weight: P0P2PP6PP7 (0-1-10)
The 2 top weights to make the frame since 2004 had both previously finished in first 5 in the race.
horses racing from out of the handicap: 3-11-101
horses carrying a penalty have gained 2 wins from 3 runners (exception unseated).
horses rated 144 or higher: 1-7-45
horses rated 132 to 143: 7-21-159
horses rated 131 or below: 2-2-41
9 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or lower
The last 2 winners rated higher than 143 were Grey Abbey, who had won the Grimthorpe last time out, and Beshabar, who finished 2nd in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham on previous start but only carried 10-4. Both had posted a career high RPR of 149+ on previous start.
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 6 last time (exception unplaced over hurdles last time)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 137+ in one or all of their last 3 completed chase starts
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in a chase over 3M 4F+ (one exception did so in a 3M chase and had yet to run over 3M 4F+)
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days
8 of 10 winners won a chase worth 15K+ (2 exceptions placed in a chase worth 45K+)
8 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher (1 exception was Merigo in 2012, having won the 2010 grade 3 Scottish National, other had won a class 4 chase but also a grade 3 hurdle)
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was 2nd on only run over 3M+)
7 of 10 winners had run in 10 to 20 chases (3 exceptions ran in a novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)
3 of 10 winners had won at Ayr (6 others were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners had first career run in a point to point, bumper or hurdles race
In the last 10 years 20 horses that ran in the Aintree Grand National then ran in this race, finishing P4PPP000PU695P00PPP7 (0-1-20)
Since 2000 2 winners ran in a handicap chase at Aintree Festival, finishing 51, on both those occasions there was a 2 week gap between the Aintree and Scottish Nationals, unlike this year, where there is just one.
Previous season's winner (Al Co): 422 (0-3-3)
Money Back Faller Insurance at Titanbet.co.uk Novice Chase winner (Cogry): 1 (1-0-1)
Grimthorpe chase winner (Wayward Prince): 33P (0-2-3)
Midlands National winner (Goonyella): 7P2 (0-1-3)
Previous year's Weatherbys Private Banking Novice H'cap Chase winner (Samstown): FF (0-0-2)
Best Prices for 4 Seasons Bet Victor H'cap Chase winner (Yes Tom): PP (0-0-2)
Murphy Group Handicap Chase winner (Sam Winner): PP (0-0-2)
Eider Chase winner (Milborough): 60 (0-0-2)
Highest placed finisher from last year's race to return: 5040221P2 (1-4-9)
Record of placed finishers from previous Scottish National: 50UP62071PP (1-1-13)
Record of first 3 from 4M NH Challenge Cup Novice Chase: PPP1P1 (2-0-6)
The Weatherbys Private Banking Novice H'cap Chase has thrown up some horses that have run well in this, in 2008 it was won by Merigo (Scottish National winner in 2010 & 2012) and in 2010 it was won by Auroras Encore (2012 Scottish National runner-up).
2 of 3 novice chaser winners ran in 4M NH Novice Chase, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in the Somerset National last time, finishing 31
3 of 3 novice chaser winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival, (1 pulled up in Cheltenham Club Novice Handicap chase and other two placed in 4M Novice Chase)
Since 2000 three winners had finished in first 7 in that season’s Hennessy Gold Cup
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-3-8) trained the winner in 1992 & 1994 and more recently in 2009. He has seen 4 of his 8 runners in past 10 years make the places.
Alan King (1-3-10) trained Godsmejudge to win this in 2013 and also finish 2nd last year. He also saddled the 2nd & 4th in 2008.
Peter Bowen (1-1-12) won this with Al Co last year, and has him entered again after early fall at Aintree last time.
Philip Hobbs (0-4-10) has seen 4 of his 10 runners get placed.
Paul Nicholls (0-2-17) has saddled several fancied runners in the past 10 years, yet he has not won the race and only gained 2 places from 17 runners.
Tim Easterby (0-1-1), Jonjo O’Neill (0-1-3), Malcolm Jefferson (0-1-5), David Pipe (0-1-9), Venetia Williams (0-1-10) & Sue Smith (0-1-12) have all saddled a placed finisher since 2005.
Irish trained runners: 3F000BP8PF8P0PP9 (0-1-16) have a poor record, gaining just 1 place from 16 runners since 2005. Last Irish-trained winner was back in 1869.
Tony Martin (0-0-1) trained the runner-up in 1999 and his one runner in past 10 years was Patsy Hall (brought down).
2 of 10 winners made all (or virtually all)
3 of 10 winners ran behind the leader(s)
1 of 10 winners raced in midfield
4 of 10 winners were held up
4 of the last 8 winners led from before halfway.
No strong trends on prices, there have been a few big shocks in past 10 years with a 40/1 winner in 2014, 66/1 winner in 2008 and 33/1 in 2006.
Favourite (0-4-14) has not won the race since 2000 and show a level stakes loss of 10.00 over the past 10 renewals.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 7 to 9 (or a 10/11yo that won last time, posting an RPR of 140+)
- French bred horses have done well recently
- Carrying 10-6 or less
- Officially rated 143 or lower
- Respect any horse carrying a penalty
- Run 3 to 6 times this season
- Finished in the first 6 last time
- Posted an RPR of 140+ in one or all of last 3 chase starts
- Won over 3M+
- Posted their career high RPR of 140+ in a chase over 3M 4F+
- Won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher (or a previous winner of this race)
- Won a chase worth £15K+ (or placed in a chase worth 45K+)
- Run in at least 10 chases (or ran in novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)
- Course winner (or having first start at Ayr)
- Had first career start in a point to point, bumper or hurdles race
- Bypassed 2015 Aintree Grand National
- Respect horses that finished in first 7 in this season’s Hennessy Gold Cup
- Ran in the Grimthorpe, 4M NH Novice Chase or Somerset National last time
- Trained in Great Britain (ideally by N Twiston-Davies, P Hobbs or A King)
- Irish trained runners have not fared well (last winner in 1869)