2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2015

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The first Classic of the season takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 2nd May when the top 3yo colts do battle in the Qipco 2000 Guineas. The race has been dominated by Irish-trained runners in recent years, with 8 of the last 13 going to horses from across the Irish Sea.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
Irish bred: 5-9-65
British bred: 4-9-67
American bred: 1-0-29
French bred: 0-2-2
Spanish bred: 0-0-1
6 of 10 winners were by a sire that finished in the first 4 in the Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (2 other sires had won group 1’s over a mile: Lockinge & Breeders Cup Mile & 2 others had won the Irish Derby).
8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner over 6F to 8F (2 exceptions by Galileo & Montjeu)
Progeny of Dubawi: 1231 (2-2-4)
Progeny of Galileo: 2430163 (1-3-7)
Progeny of Montjeu: 061 (1-0-3)

Past/Recent Form
8 of 10 winners won on their first run as a 2yo
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 85+ on debut
5 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut at Newmarket or Curragh
7 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times before (3 exceptions were unbeaten in 2 runs)
9 of 10 winners had won 2+ races
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (7 won)
10 of 10 winners had their last run in August or later
7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out (3 exceptions posted it on penultimate start)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ last time
8 of 10 winners had won at group level (2 exception placed in a group 2 or 3)
7 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (2 exceptions finished in first 2 in Greenham and other won Prix Djebel)
8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
3 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (1 exception was placed on only run at the track, other 6 were having first run here)
2 of 3 British-trained winners won their maiden at Newmarket in July or August

2yo Races
Dewhust winner (Belardo): 22119 (2-2-5)
Coventry Stakes winner (The Wow Signal): 0013019 (2-1-7)
National Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 51257017 (2-1-8)
Alfred Nobel Rochestown (C&G) Stakes winner (Kool Kompany): 1 (1-0-1)
Fishery Lane 2yo Race winner (Capella Sansevero): 1 (1-0-1)
Royal Lodge winner (Elm Park): 1 (1-0-1)
Doncaster Stakes winner (Code Red): 01 (1-0-2)
Phoenix Stakes winner (Dick Whittingham): 15 (1-0-2)
Beresford Stakes winner (Ol' Man River): 5160 (1-0-4)
Railway Stakes winner (Kool Kompany): 0615 (1-0-4)
Racing Post Trophy winner (Elm Park): 06018 (1-0-5)
Richmond Stakes winner (Ivawood): 92 (0-1-2)
Tyros Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 24 (0-1-2)
Prix Morny winner (The Wow Signal): 3 (0-1-1)
Criterium International winner (Vert De Grece): 02 (0-1-2)
Futurity Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 4829 (0-1-4)
Vintage Stakes (Highland Reel): 2847 (0-1-4)
Champagne Stakes winner (Estidhkaar): 020440 (0-1-6)
Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère winner (Full Mast): 48 (0-0-2)
July Stakes winner (Ivawood): 07 (0-0-2)
Acomb Stakes winner (Dutch Connection): 05 (0-0-2)
Tattersalls Stakes winner (Maftool): 08 (0-0-2)
Autumn Stakes winner (Commemorative): 08 (0-0-2)
Winkfield Stakes winner (Kodi Bear): 404 (0-0-3)
Gimcrack Stakes winner (Muhaarar): 879 (0-0-3)
Barronstown Stud EBF Maiden winner (Gleneagles): 8440 (0-0-4)
Superlative Stakes winner (Estidhkaar): 5800 (0-0-4)
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 6 Irish-trained winners won the National Stakes
2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 6 Irish-trained winners won the Coventry Stakes

3yo Trials
Greenham Stakes winner: 62192 (1-2-5)
Prix Djebel winner (Ride Like The Wind): 7125 (1-1-4)
Craven Stakes winner (Kool Kompany): 600253447 (0-2-9)
Spring Cup winner (Lexington Times): 020 (0-1-3)
Free Handicap winner (Home Of The Brave): 5070874 (0-0-6)
2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in Greenham Stakes last time, finishing 12
Since 2000, 6 winners had had 1 run that season, 2 ran in Greenham (finishing 1st & 2nd), 2 ran in Craven (finished 2nd & 1st), 1 won Prix Djebel and other won Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial.

Trainers
Irish trained runners (6-3-33) have won 8 of the last 13 runnings.
French-trained runners (1-2-7) were responsible for winner in 2010 and 2nd & 3rd in 2012 and weren’t represented in 2011 & 2013, while their 2 runners last year were both sent off 33/1.
Aidan O’Brien (4-1-23) has trained 5 winners of the race since 2002.
Richard Hannon (1-4-18) saddled Night Of Thunder to win this last year and had been responsible for 4 of the 12 placed finishers in previous 4 renewals.
Jim Bolger (1-2-5) trained Dawn Approach to win this in 2013 and his 3 runners prior to 2013 finished 6th, 2nd and 3rd.
Mikel Delzangles (1-1-3) & John Oxx (1-0-2) have both saddled a winner and placed finisher since 2004.
Michael Stoute (0-0-6) trained 5 winners of this between 1985 & 2001 but his all 6 of his runners in past 10 years have been unplaced.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-0-8) trained the winner in 1996 & 1999 but his 21 runners since 2000 have yielded no winners and just 1 place.

Price
No strong trends on prices.
Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of last 10 (including last 3), giving a level stakes loss of 0.75.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a group 1 winner, that finished in first 4 in a 2000 Guineas or won Irish Derby
- Progeny of Dubawi & Galileo do well
- Won on racecourse debut & posted RPR of 85+
- Run at least 3 times (or unbeaten)
- Previously won at least 2 races
- Finished in the first 3 last time (ideally won)
- Posted an RPR of 110+ last time
- Having first run of the season (or finished 1st or 2nd in a Guineas trial)
- Won a group race
- Won the Dewhurst, Coventry and/or National Stakes
- Won over 7F or 8F
- Trained by Mikel Delzangles or in Ireland (by Aidan O’Brien, John Oxx or Jim Bolger) or
- British-trained that won maiden at Newmarket & finished in first 3 in Champagne and/or Greenham Stakes