1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2015

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The Qipco 1000 Guineas takes place at Newmarket on Sunday, 3rd May. Run over a mile for fillies only, it has thrown up a few surprise results in the past few years, with Ghanaati in 2009 winning at 20/1, Blue Bunting at 16/1 in 2011 and Homecoming Queen at 25/1 in 2012. Jacqueline Quest at 66/1 was first past the post in 2010 but subsequently disqualified.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
Irish bred: 5-10-75
American bred: 3-3-24
British bred: 1-7-64
French bred: 1-0-3
UAE bred: 0-0-1
horses bred in GB & Ire: 6-17-141
horse bred outside of GB & Ire: 4-3-28
American bred horses have won 4 of last 12 runnings.
9 of 10 winner were by a sire that finished in first 2 in a group 1 over 6F to 1M
Progeny of Danehill Dancer: 100005 (1-0-6)
Progeny of Galileo: 62302330 (0-5-8)
Progeny of Rock Of Gibraltar: 0091d (0-1-4)

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time (2 exceptions beaten in Prix Imprudence, other 2nd in Nell Gwyn)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 104+ last time (2 exceptions posted a career high RPR last time)
8 of 10 winners won or placed on first turf start as a 2yo (1 exception was unplaced in a group 3 on debut as a 2yo)
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice as a 2yo
9 of 10 winners had won at least twice
7 of 10 winners had run once that season (4 won a recognised Guineas Trial last time, 2 were beaten in Prix Imprudence and other 2nd in Nell Gwyn)
3 of 3 winners, that were making seasonal debut, had won last start, posting career high RPR in the process
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F to 8F
6 of 10 winners had previously won at Newmarket (3 exceptions had yet to run there & other was 2nd in two group 3's on 2 runs here)
9 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (1 exception had yet to run in a class 1 race)

2yo Races
Rockfel Stakes winner (Lucida): 21100602 (2-2-8)
Cheveley Park Stakes winner (Tiggy Wiggy): 051718 (2-0-6)
Montrose Stakes winner (Irish Rookie): 16 (1-0-2)
Staffordstown Stud Stakes winner (Together Forever): 01 (1-0-2)
Prix Marcel Boussac winner (Found): 710 (1-0-3)
Oh So Sharp Stakes winner (Local Time): 08061 (1-0-5)
May Hill winner (Agnes Stewart): 73325093 (0-4-8)
Sweet Solera Stakes winner (Muraaqaba): 23503 (0-3-5)
Weld Park Stakes winner (Qualify): 2 (0-1-1)
Debutante Stakes winner (Rayara): 7030 (0-1-4)
Fillies Mile winner (Together Forever): 03509 (0-1-5)
Bosra Sham Stakes winner (Terror): 06 (0-0-2)
Princess Margaret Stakes winner (Osaila): 760 (0-0-3)
Prestige Stakes winner (Malabar): 040 (0-0-3)
Lowther Stakes winner (Tiggy Wiggy): 0580 (0-0-4)
Duchess of Cambridge Stakes winner (Arabian Queen): 0000 (0-0-4)
2 of 3 French-trained winners ran in the Cheveley Park Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 3 French-trained ran in the Prix Robert Papin, finishing 11
2 of 3 French-trained ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 22
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Weld Park Stakes, finishing 32
2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in the Coolmore Filles Sprint Stakes, finishing 91
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, finishing 08

3yo Trials
Prix Imprudence winner (Ervedya): 1707 (1-0-4)
Nell Gwyn Stakes winner (Osaila): 41746599 (1-0-8)
UAE 1000 Guineas winner (Local Time): 03 (0-1-2)
UAE Oaks winner (Local Time): 003 (0-1-3)
Fred Darling winner: 03806 (0-1-5)
3 of 3 French-trained ran in the Prix Imprudence, finishing 136
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial, finishing 11
2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in Nell Gwynn last time, finishing 12

Trainers
British trained runners: 4-13-123
Irish trained runners: 3-7-36
French trained runners: 3-0-8
French-trained runners (3-0-8) have gained 3 wins and 2 places from 10 runners since 2003. 2 of 3 French winners had won a group race against colts as 2yos and also finished in first 2 in a group 1 against colts.
Pascal Bary (1-0-1), Andre Fabre (1-0-1) and Criquette Head-Maarek have each won this with their sole runner in past 10 years.
Aidan O’Brien (2-3-17) trained the winner in 2005, the 2nd in 2011, the 1st & 3rd in 2012 & 3rd in 2013.
Jim Bolger (1-3-7) has had 1 winners and 3 places from 7 runners.
Barry Hills (1-1-8) trained the winner in 2009.
Richard Hannon yard (1-1-9) has been responsible for Nasheej to finish 3rd in 2006 and Sky Lantern to win it in 2013.
The Cecil Yard (0-1-2) has saddled the winner of this 6 times, and saddled 3 winners in 4 years between 1996 & 1999. Their 2 runners since 2004 have been Jacqueline Quest (1st past post in 2010, demoted to 2nd) and unplaced favourite, Hot Snap, in 2013.
Trainers who have not done so well in the race recently include John Gosden (0-1-8), Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-10), Clive Brittain (0-0-6), Michael Stoute (0-0-6) and Mick Channon (0-0-14).

Price
No strong trends on prices though there have been a few upsets in recent years with 3 of the last 5 winners going off at 16/1 or bigger and but for Jacqueline Quest’s disqualification, the last 6 runnings would have included winners priced at 20/1, 66/1, 16/1 & 25/1.
Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 1.50 since 2005.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- American bred fillies do well
- Sired by a horse that finished 1st or 2nd in a group 1 over 6F to 1M
- Run at least 3 times as a 2yo & won or placed on first career turf start
- Won last time out (posting an RPR of 104+)
- Having first run of 2015 or had 1 run & finished 1st or 2nd in a recognised 1000 Guineas Trial
- Previously won a listed or group race
- Won over 7F to 8F
- Course winner (or having first run at Newmarket)
- French-trained that finished in first 3 in Prix Morny, Imprudence and/or Robert Papin
- Won the Rockfel, Cheveley Park, Nell Gwynn and/or Leopardstown 2000G Trial
- Ran in Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and/or Coolmore Fillies Sprint
- French trained or trained by Aidan O’Brien or Jim Bolger