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    Info PUNCHESTOWN CHAMPION CHASE TRENDS 2015

    The Boylesports Champion Chase is the highlight of the first day of the 2015 Punchestown Festival, which kicks off on Tuesday 28th April. Unfortunately, this year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase winner, Dodging Bullets, will not be travelling over to contest the race. Sizing Europe won it last year as a 12yo and will be looking for an unprecedented third win in the race.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 2-0-3
    7yo: 1-1-6
    8yo: 3-7-23
    9yo: 1-2-19
    10yo: 2-1-11
    11yo+: 1-2-9
    6yos have won the last 2 of the last 7 runnings of this race and failed to have a representative in the other 5 runnings since 2008.
    All 3 winners aged 10+ had previously won the Queen Mother and had run well in this race previously (Big Zeb & Sizing Europe (twice) had both finished in first 2 in this before winning this when aged 10+).

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 5-11-45
    French bred: 5-2-15
    British bred: 0-0-7
    Other: 0-0-4
    10 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred but younger French breds and older Irish bred horses have held the edge.
    French bred horses aged 6 to 8: 5-1-10
    French bred 9+: 0-1-5
    Irish bred 6 to 8: 1-7-16
    Irish bred 9+: 4-4-29
    4 of 5 French bred winners began their NH career in an Auteuil Hurdle.

    Recent/Past Form
    5 of 10 winners won last time out (4 of 5 others finished in first 6 in Queen Mother)
    7 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 162+ last time out
    10 of 10 winners had run in the previous 50 days
    10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase
    8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (2 exceptions finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1)
    7 of 10 winners (last 7) had won multiple grade 1 chases
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 3 to 5 times that season (exception had 10 runs)
    9 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 chases that season (exception had won 1 grade 2 chase)
    10 of 10 winners had run in at least 8 chases (winning at least 4)
    8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (2 exception were previous Queen Mother Champion Chase winner that had previously finished in first 2 in this race)
    9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 2F+

    Other races
    Defending Punchestown Champion Chaser (Sizing Europe): 5P432 (0-1-5)
    Highest placed finisher from Queen Mother Champion Chase: 214712211 (4-3-9)
    Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet winner (Twinlight): 5321132 (2-3-7)
    Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 121 (2-1-3)
    Hilly Way Chase winner (Felix Younger): 131456 (2-0-6)
    Tied Cottage Chase winner (Hidden Cyclone): 236P412 (1-2-7)
    Melling Chase winner (Don Cossack): 21 (1-1-2)
    Red Mills Chase winner (Champagne Fever): 1 (1-0-1)
    Dan Moore Memorial Chase winner (Mallowney): 41 (1-0-2)
    Previous season's Ryanair Novice Chase winner (God's Own): 2F3 (0-1-3)
    Normans Grove Chase winner (Twinlight): 52P745 (0-1-6)
    Paddy Power Your Local Betting Shop Chase winner (Mallowney): 5643 (0-0-4)
    8 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother, finishing 16162214
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 1111 (including all 3 GB winners)
    4 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase, finishing 4114
    3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Tied Cottage, finishing 221
    3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing 222
    2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Fortria Chase, finishing U1
    3 of 3 British-trained winners ran in Clarence House Chase, finishing 211
    2 of 3 British-trained winners won previous year's Maghulls Novice Chase
    2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Red Mills Chase, finishing 12
    2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Kinloch Brae, finishing 11
    2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Hilly Way Chase, finishing 11
    2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Gowran Park Champion Chase, finishing 11
    9 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (8 in Queen Mother & 1 in Ryanair)

    Trainers
    British based trainers (3-2-13) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 18.3% of the total runners. All 3 had won the Tingle Creek & finished in first 2 in Clarence House Chase that season.
    Henry De Bromhead (2-3-7) has trained Sizing Europe to win this in 2012 & 2014 and be placed in 2010, 2011 & 2013.
    Willie Mullins (1-0-8) trained the winner in 2001 & 2010 but 7 of his 8 runners in the past 10 years have been unplaced.
    David Pipe (0-1-1) & Tony Martin (0-1-1) trained the 2nd & 3rd last year.
    Mouse Morris (0-1-3) & Noel Meade (0-1-3) have both saddled the runner-up in past 10 years.

    Price
    9 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below
    All 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and Savello (3rd at 14/1 in 2014) has been the only horse priced higher than 12/1 to make the places since 2005.
    Favourites (5-3-10) have won 5 of last 10 but show a £1 level stakes loss of £1.22.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - French bred aged 6 to 8 or Irish bred aged 9+
    - Run in the past 50 days
    - Won last time out (or finished 2nd to 6th in Queen Mother)
    - Posted an RPR of 166+ last time
    - Won a grade 1 chase (preferably multiple grade 1’s)
    - Has run 3 to 5 times season, winning at least twice
    - Run at least 8 times over fences, winning at least four
    - Second or third season chaser (or previous Queen Mother winner)
    - Finished in the first 6 in the Queen Mother Champion Chase
    - Won the Tingle Creek, Gowran Champion and/or PP Dial-A-Bet Chase
    - First 2 in Hilly Way, Tied Cottage, Victor Chandler and/or 2014 Punchestown Champion Chase
    - Won a chase over 2M 2F+
    - Trained in Britain
    - Priced 8/1 or lower

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (19th April 2015) 


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