Strangely before 1999 there was no grade 1 chase for Gold Cup horses at Punchestown but now the Bibby Financial Services Punchestown Gold Cup is the highlight of the meeting for many race fans. The race, which takes place on Wednesday 29th April, is run over 3M 1F and Djakadam will be looking to follow in 2013 winner Sir Des Champ’s footsteps, by finishing runner-up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and then taking this.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
horses aged 6 to 8: 8-8-37
horses aged 9 or older: 2-10-49
8 of 10 runnings of this race have been won by horses aged 6 to 8. Both 9yo winners were Irish bred.
Irish bred: 5-15-61
French bred: 4-3-19
British bred: 1-0-5
German bred: 0-0-2
Irish bred horses have won 5 of last 10 but they have represented over 70% of the total runners.
French bred horses have won 4 of last 10 from 23.5% of the total runners. All 4 French bred winners were aged 6 to 8.
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (both exceptions down the field in Cheltenham Gold Cup & Ryanair)
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 156+ in 1 or both of last 2 runs
10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 7 chases since September
9 of 10 winners had won that season
10 of 10 had run 6 to 15 times over fences
10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+ (1 exception had not run over further than 2M 6F)
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (3 exceptions had finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1)
7 of 10 winners were course winners (2 of 3 exceptions were having first course start while other was 7th in previous year's Gold Cup)
Defending Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Boston Bob): 1P2 (1-1-3)
Record of horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in Cheltenham Gold Cup: 5514P218 (2-1-8)
King George winner (Silviniaco Conti): 12 (1-1-2)
Clonmel Oil winner (Champagne Fever): 13U (1-1-3)
Previous season's PJ Moriarty Chase winner (Ballycasey): 3431 (1-1-4)
John Durkan Memorial winner (Don Cossack): 133U4 (1-1-5)
Star Best For Racing Coverage Chase winner (Don Cossack): 1P (1-0-2)
Melling Chase winner (Don Cossack): 31 (1-0-2)
Previous season's Killiney Novice Chase winner (Djakadam): UP1 (1-0-3)
Kinloch Brae winner (Don Cossack): 7165 (1-0-4)
Aintree Bowl winner (Silviniaco Conti): 423 (0-2-3)
Boylesports Leopardstown Handicap Chase winner (Foxrock): 423 (0-2-3)
Lexus Chase winner (Road To Riches): 2 (0-1-1)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Menorah): 4 (0-0-1)
Thyestes Chase winner (Djakadam): 8 (0-0-1)
John Meagher Memorial Chase winner (Home Farm): PP (0-0-2)
JNWine Champion Chase winner (Road To Riches): 8PP (0-0-3)
Red Mills Chase winner (Champagne Fever): 57U4P (0-0-5)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 118382
2 of 10 winners ran in Ryanair Chase, finishing 06
3 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 152
3 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 251
2 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus, finishing 24
3 of 7 second season chaser winners ran in the previous year's Arkle, finishing 273 (one other won the previous year's Jewson Novice Chase)
2 of 7 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Ryanair Novice Chase, finishing B1
2 of 7 second season chaser winners (last 2) ran in previous year's Growise Champion Novice Chase, finishing 1F
2 of 10 winners ran in this race previous year, finishing 17
2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in BetBright Cup Chase, finishing F3
Willie Mullins (2-5-11) has won the race three times, in 2002 with Florida Pearl and in past 2 years with Sir Des Champs & Boston Bob. 7 of his 11 runners in past 10 runnings have made the places.
Mouse Morris (2-3-6) and Paul Nicholls (2-0-6) have both trained the winner twice since 2006.
Tom Taaffe (1-0-3) trained Kicking King to win this in 2005 and Philip Hobbs (1-0-3) trained Planet Of Sound to win this in 2010.
The Sandra Hughes yard (0-3-7) has seen 3 of their 8 runners make the frame since 2005.
British-based trainers (3-3-25) don’t actually have that good a record in this race, especially when you remove Neptune Collonges’ 2 runs in the race, their record becomes just 1 winner and 3 place from 23 runners (10 of those 23 were sent off shorter than 7/1 and 8 of those 10 were unplaced including the 2 of last 4 favourites).
6 of 10 winners were sent off favourite
There have been shocks in 3 of last 5 years with the winners going off 14/1, 20/1 & 20/1 while 6 of the other 10 winners were sent off favourite.
Favourites (6-2-10) have won 6 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 4.80.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 8
- French bred
- Finished in first 4 last time (or unplaced in a grade 1 at Cheltenham)
- Posted RPR of 156+ last time
- Ran in past 40 days
- Run in 2 to 7 chases this season (winning at least 1)
- Run 6 to 15 times over fences in their career
- Second or third season chaser
- Won over 2M 7F+
- Won a grade 1 chase (2nd or 3rd at the very least)
- Previous course winner (or having first start here)
- Finished in first 4 in the Cheltenham Gold Cup
- Finished in first 5 in Lexus, Irish Hennessy and/or John Durkan Memorial
- Second season chaser that ran in 2014 Arkle, Growise Champion and/or Ryanair Novice Chase
- Trained in Ireland (especially by Mouse Morris) or by Paul Nicholls
- Favourite does well