CELEBRATION CHASE TRENDS 2015

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The Bet365 A P McCoy Celebration Chase takes place on the undercard of the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on Saturday, 26th April. The race was upgraded to grade 1 status in 2014, meaning recent grade 1 winners do not shoulder a penalty in the race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-2
6yo: 2-1-6
7yo: 2-3-17
8yo: 4-7-23
9yo+: 2-1-14
10yo+: 0-3-15
horses aged 5 to 8: 8-11-48
horses aged 9+: 2-4-29
Both winners aged 9 were Irish bred.

Breeding
French Bred: 5-8-36
Irish Bred: 2-4-21
British Bred: 2-2-15
German Bred: 1-1-3
NZ Bred: 0-0-2
Since this race was inaugurated in 2001, 10 of 14 winners were either German or French bred
Both GB bred winners were aged 8, both Irish bred winners were aged 9.
5 of 5 French bred winners were aged 6 to 8.

Recent/Past Form
Only 3 of 10 winners won last time out (2 were novice chasers)
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed chase start
10 of 10 winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chasers
9 of 10 winners had won 2 to 5 times over fences (exception had won previous year's race)
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 7 times that season
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a grade 1 chase (3 exceptions had yet to run in a grade 1)
9 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a class 1 chase (exception unbeaten in 2 chase starts)
7 of 10 winners (last 5) were rated 138+ over hurdles

Other races
Previous year's winner (Sire De Grugy): 553461 (1-1-6)
Game Spirit Chase winner (Mr Mole): 213 (1-2-3)
Desert Orchid Chase winner (Special Tiara): 61 (1-0-2)
Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 3 (0-1-1)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (God's Own): 28 (0-1-2)
32Redsport.com Handicap Chase winner (Mr Mole): 3 (0-0-1)
Grand Annual Chase winner (Next Sensation): 4 (0-0-1)
Wayward Lad Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 45 (0-0-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother, finishing 2U2F61
4 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 3UF1
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Maghulls Nov chase, finishing 164
2 of 10 winners ran in the Melling Chase last time, finishing P5
2 of 10 winners ran in the Haldon Gold Cup, finishing U4
2 of 10 winners ran in the Game Spirit Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in Clarence House Chase, finishing 11

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-4-17) has trained the winner 4 times in past 11 years.
Gary Moore (2-0-3) has saddled Sire De Grugy to win the last 2 runnings.
Nicky Henderson (1-2-7) has saddled a winner and 2 places from 7 runners since 2005.
David Pipe (1-1-5) won this with I’m So Lucky in 2010.
Colin Tizzard (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners make the frame.
Venetia Williams (0-1-1) only runner in past 10 years was runner-up, Petite Rose, in 2014.

Price
10 of 10 winners were sent off 9/1 or shorter
8 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting but favourites doesn’t have a great record.
Favourites (2-5-11) have won just 2 of the last 10 giving a £1 level stakes loss of £6.46.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 to 8 (or Irish bred 9yo)
- German & French breds do well
- Ran in past 50 days
- Run 4 to 7 times this season
- Posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed chase start
- 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chaser
- Previously finished in first 5 in a grade 1 chase
- Won a class 1 chase
- Rate 138+ over hurdles
- Ran in Queen Mother, Tingle Creek, Melling and/or 2014 Maghull Novice Chase
- Finished in first 2 in Game Spirit and/or Clarence House Chase
- Paul Nicholls & Gary Moore have done well in this
- Priced 9/1 or shorter