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    Info WORLD SERIES HURDLE TRENDS 2015

    The highlight of day 3 of the Punchestown Festival, on Thursday 30th April, is the grade 1 Ladbrokes World Series Hurdle. This race is run over 3 miles and usually attracts the best staying hurdlers from Britain but it’s worth noting though that its Cheltenham equivalent (World Hurdle) has been a very poor guide to this race.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 0-3-6
    6yo: 2-2-18
    7yo: 3-6-27
    8yo: 2-5-18
    9yo: 2-1-14
    10yo: 0-1-7
    11yo+: 1-0-7
    horses aged 5 to 7: 5-11-51
    horses aged 8 or older: 5-7-46
    The ages of the winners has been quite well spread out though in recent years younger horses have held the call with 7 of the last 10 winners aged 6 to 8.

    Gender
    Mares (6-4-13) received a 7lb allowance and have made the most of that, gaining 6 wins and 4 places from just 13 runners. 6 of last 9 runnings have gone to mares, one of the other runnings had no female runners while the only mare in the other two finished 2nd.

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 4-14-61
    French bred: 4-2-19
    British bred: 2-0-8
    German bred: 0-2-6
    American bred: 0-0-3
    6 of 10 winners were French or GB bred, they represented just 27.8% of total runners.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners won or placed last time (6 won)
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 148+ in 1 or both of last 2 starts
    10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
    7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (3 exceptions were all grade 1 winners having their first try at 3M+)
    6 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (2 exceptions placed in a grade 1 & 1 other having their first start in a grade 1)
    8 of 10 winners (last 6) were course winners (other 2 were having their first course start)

    Punchestown Festival Form
    Defending Punchestown World Series Hurdler (Jetson): 821112 (3-2-6)
    7 of 10 winners had won or placed at the Festival before (2 others were having their first run at the Punchestown Festival & one had finished 5th in grade 1 novice hurdle over 3M)
    3 of 10 winners had run in the 2M 4F Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Novice Hurdle, finishing 1P2.
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous World Series Hurdle, finishing 111

    Cheltenham Festival Form
    David Nicholson Mares Hurdle winner: 11112 (4-1-5)
    Highest placed finisher in the World Hurdle to run in this: P3P6692223 (0-5-10)
    Placed finishers in World Hurdle: P66933 (0-2-6)
    9 of 10 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (4 Mares Hurdle, 3 Pertemps, 1 Champion Hurdle, 1 World Hurdle)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Pertemps Final, finishing 505
    4 of 10 winners (all Quevega) ran in Mares Hurdle last time, finishing 1111
    Only 1 of last 10 winners ran in that season’s World Hurdle at Cheltenham

    Other races
    Dornan Engineering Hurdle winner (Rock On Ruby): 1 (1-0-1)
    Aintree Hurdle winner (Jezki): 1 (1-0-1)
    Cleeve Hurdle winner (Saphir De Rheu): 328 (0-2-3)
    Christmas Hurdle winner (Lieutenant Colonel): 7922 (0-2-4)
    Hattons Grace Hurdle winner (Lieutenant Colonel): 53523 (0-2-5)
    Lismullen Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 350726 (0-2-6)
    Coolmore NH Sires Novice Hurdle winner (Lieutenant Colonel): 25 (0-1-2)
    Galmoy Hurdle winner (Dedigout): 7702 (0-1-4)
    Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle winner (Dedigout): 564 (0-0-3)
    Boyne Hurdle winner (Dedigout): 7643 (0-0-4)
    Highest placed finisher from the Aintree Hurdle: 117 (2-0-3)
    Highest placed finisher from the Liverpool Hurdle: 3P170643 (1-2-8)
    3 of 10 winners ran in Injured Jockey's Fund Handicap Hurdle last time out, finishing 034
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out, finishing 12
    6 of 10 winners ran at Aintree last time out (Quevega accounts for other 4, she won Mares Hurdle on her previous start before her 4 wins in this)

    Trainers
    Willie Mullins (5-3-22) has trained the last 5 of last 6 winners.
    British trained runners (3-8-24) have a strong record in this race, having won 4 of the last 11 runnings.
    Jessica Harrington (1-0-1) trained Jetson to win this last year.
    Rebecca Curtis (0-1-1) saddled At Fishers Cross to finish 3rd last year.
    Gordon Elliot (0-1-2) & Noel Meade (0-1-2) have both saddled a placed finisher.

    Price
    7 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
    There have been three shock winners at 16/1, 20/1 and 25/1 (2 of 3 trained in Britain) but other than those three the other 7 winners were all sent off shorter than 7/2.
    Favourites (7-1-10) have a very good record having won 7 of the last 10 (6 of the last 7), giving a level stakes profit of 7.43.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - French & GB bred horses favoured
    - Aged 8 or younger (or a previous winner)
    - Mares have a very strong record
    - Finished in the first 3 last time out in the past 50 days
    - Posted an RPR of 148+ in one or both of last 2 starts
    - A second or third season hurdler (or won last year’s race)
    - Won a grade 1 hurdle
    - Won over 3M+ (or trying 3M+ for first time)
    - Previously won or placed at Punchestown Festival
    - Course winner (or having first run here)
    - Ran at the Aintree Festival last time (or in Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham)
    - horses that ran well in Aintree Hurdle do well
    - Avoid horses that finished in the first 3 in the 2015 World Hurdle
    - Trained by Willie Mullins or in Great Britain
    - Favourites do well

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (23rd April 2015), chesser (23rd April 2015) 


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