Close

Results 1 to 1 of 1
  1. #1
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,929
    Thanks
    352
    Thanked:        1,639
    Karma Level
    352

    Info WORLD SERIES HURDLE TRENDS 2015

    The highlight of day 3 of the Punchestown Festival, on Thursday 30th April, is the grade 1 Ladbrokes World Series Hurdle. This race is run over 3 miles and usually attracts the best staying hurdlers from Britain but it’s worth noting though that its Cheltenham equivalent (World Hurdle) has been a very poor guide to this race.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 0-3-6
    6yo: 2-2-18
    7yo: 3-6-27
    8yo: 2-5-18
    9yo: 2-1-14
    10yo: 0-1-7
    11yo+: 1-0-7
    horses aged 5 to 7: 5-11-51
    horses aged 8 or older: 5-7-46
    The ages of the winners has been quite well spread out though in recent years younger horses have held the call with 7 of the last 10 winners aged 6 to 8.

    Gender
    Mares (6-4-13) received a 7lb allowance and have made the most of that, gaining 6 wins and 4 places from just 13 runners. 6 of last 9 runnings have gone to mares, one of the other runnings had no female runners while the only mare in the other two finished 2nd.

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 4-14-61
    French bred: 4-2-19
    British bred: 2-0-8
    German bred: 0-2-6
    American bred: 0-0-3
    6 of 10 winners were French or GB bred, they represented just 27.8% of total runners.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners won or placed last time (6 won)
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 148+ in 1 or both of last 2 starts
    10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
    7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (3 exceptions were all grade 1 winners having their first try at 3M+)
    6 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (2 exceptions placed in a grade 1 & 1 other having their first start in a grade 1)
    8 of 10 winners (last 6) were course winners (other 2 were having their first course start)

    Punchestown Festival Form
    Defending Punchestown World Series Hurdler (Jetson): 821112 (3-2-6)
    7 of 10 winners had won or placed at the Festival before (2 others were having their first run at the Punchestown Festival & one had finished 5th in grade 1 novice hurdle over 3M)
    3 of 10 winners had run in the 2M 4F Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Novice Hurdle, finishing 1P2.
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous World Series Hurdle, finishing 111

    Cheltenham Festival Form
    David Nicholson Mares Hurdle winner: 11112 (4-1-5)
    Highest placed finisher in the World Hurdle to run in this: P3P6692223 (0-5-10)
    Placed finishers in World Hurdle: P66933 (0-2-6)
    9 of 10 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (4 Mares Hurdle, 3 Pertemps, 1 Champion Hurdle, 1 World Hurdle)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Pertemps Final, finishing 505
    4 of 10 winners (all Quevega) ran in Mares Hurdle last time, finishing 1111
    Only 1 of last 10 winners ran in that season’s World Hurdle at Cheltenham

    Other races
    Dornan Engineering Hurdle winner (Rock On Ruby): 1 (1-0-1)
    Aintree Hurdle winner (Jezki): 1 (1-0-1)
    Cleeve Hurdle winner (Saphir De Rheu): 328 (0-2-3)
    Christmas Hurdle winner (Lieutenant Colonel): 7922 (0-2-4)
    Hattons Grace Hurdle winner (Lieutenant Colonel): 53523 (0-2-5)
    Lismullen Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 350726 (0-2-6)
    Coolmore NH Sires Novice Hurdle winner (Lieutenant Colonel): 25 (0-1-2)
    Galmoy Hurdle winner (Dedigout): 7702 (0-1-4)
    Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle winner (Dedigout): 564 (0-0-3)
    Boyne Hurdle winner (Dedigout): 7643 (0-0-4)
    Highest placed finisher from the Aintree Hurdle: 117 (2-0-3)
    Highest placed finisher from the Liverpool Hurdle: 3P170643 (1-2-8)
    3 of 10 winners ran in Injured Jockey's Fund Handicap Hurdle last time out, finishing 034
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out, finishing 12
    6 of 10 winners ran at Aintree last time out (Quevega accounts for other 4, she won Mares Hurdle on her previous start before her 4 wins in this)

    Trainers
    Willie Mullins (5-3-22) has trained the last 5 of last 6 winners.
    British trained runners (3-8-24) have a strong record in this race, having won 4 of the last 11 runnings.
    Jessica Harrington (1-0-1) trained Jetson to win this last year.
    Rebecca Curtis (0-1-1) saddled At Fishers Cross to finish 3rd last year.
    Gordon Elliot (0-1-2) & Noel Meade (0-1-2) have both saddled a placed finisher.

    Price
    7 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
    There have been three shock winners at 16/1, 20/1 and 25/1 (2 of 3 trained in Britain) but other than those three the other 7 winners were all sent off shorter than 7/2.
    Favourites (7-1-10) have a very good record having won 7 of the last 10 (6 of the last 7), giving a level stakes profit of 7.43.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - French & GB bred horses favoured
    - Aged 8 or younger (or a previous winner)
    - Mares have a very strong record
    - Finished in the first 3 last time out in the past 50 days
    - Posted an RPR of 148+ in one or both of last 2 starts
    - A second or third season hurdler (or won last year’s race)
    - Won a grade 1 hurdle
    - Won over 3M+ (or trying 3M+ for first time)
    - Previously won or placed at Punchestown Festival
    - Course winner (or having first run here)
    - Ran at the Aintree Festival last time (or in Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham)
    - horses that ran well in Aintree Hurdle do well
    - Avoid horses that finished in the first 3 in the 2015 World Hurdle
    - Trained by Willie Mullins or in Great Britain
    - Favourites do well

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (23rd April 2015),  chesser (23rd April 2015)  


Similar Threads

  1. Sensible World of Soccer or Kick Off 2?
    By WTD in forum Old Skool Gaming & Retro
    Replies: 42
    Last Post: 8th March 2004, 05:49 AM
  2. FIBA 2002 World Basketball Championship
    By Choller in forum Digital Satellite TV
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 12th September 2002, 12:03 AM
  3. TV tuner from cd world
    By phlix in forum Old Skool Gaming & Retro
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 4th September 2002, 12:37 AM

Social Networking Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •