DANTE STAKES TRENDS 2015

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The Betfred Dante Stakes on Thursday 14th May is the highlight of York’s May meeting. Since 2000, 3 winners of the Dante went on to win the Epsom Derby so whatever wins this will likely move towards the top of the Derby market, with no standout contender emerging from the other Derby trials already run this season. .





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age


Race for 3yos

Breeding


Irish bred: 6-6-27
British bred: 3-4-28
American bred: 1-0-7
German bred: 0-2-3
French bred: 0-0-1
Irish bred horses have won 6 of the last 10 from approximately 40% of total runners.
10 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner (9 of 10 sires had won a group 1 over 1M 2F+)
10 of 10 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 9.5F or higher
6 of 10 winners were sired by Sadler's Wells or a son/grandson of Sadler's Wells

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners had had 2 to 6 career starts


10 of 10 winners had won a race
5 of 10 winners won last time
9 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 100+ last time


7 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M+ (2 exceptions trained by Aidan O'Brien had only won over 7F and other was 2nd in Craven over 1M)
5 of 10 winners were making their seasonal debut
4 of 10 winners had won a group race (2 of 6 exceptions won their maiden last time out, other 2 exceptions finished 3rd or 4th in a group race last time)
9 of 10 winners made their debut over 7F or further (exception won a 6F York maiden on debut)
9 of last 11 British-trained winners made their debut at Sandown, Salisbury, York or Newmarket

Other Races


Racing Post Trophy winner (Elm Park): 1618 (2-0-4)
Beresford Stakes winner (Ol' Man River): 51 (1-0-2)
Flying Scotsman Stakes winner (Nafaqa): 2 (0-1-1)
Highclere Thoroughbred Racing E B F Maiden Stakes winner (Nafaqa): 2 (0-1-1)
Feilden Stakes winner (Golden Horn): 93 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 1317
2 of 3 Aidan O'Brien winners ran in the Prix La Force last time, finishing 73
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) made debut as 2yos in Francis Clark EBF Maiden, finishing 21

The Epsom Derby


Record of the Dante winner in the Epsom Derby reads 10120362 (2-4-8)
Workforce was 2nd in this before winning the 2010 Epsom Derby.
2014 Dante winner, The Grey Gatsby, won the French Derby on next start.

Trainers


Aidan O’Brien (3-4-10) has seen 7 of his 8 runners since 2006 win or place in this.
Michael Stoute (2-2-7) has won this 4 times since 2000. All 4 Stoute winners since 2000 had run twice, finishing 2nd and 1st on two runs to date. 3 of the 4 were making seasonal debut after running twice as 2yos.
Andrew Balding (1-0-1) & Karl Burke yard (1-0-1) have both saddled 1 of last 3 winners.
Roger Varian (0-1-1) & John Gosden (0-1-5) have both saddled the runner-up since 2005.

Price


No strong trends on prices. 4 of last 7 winners were priced between 9/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (3-2-10) have gained 3 wins in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 3.47. Last winning favourite was back in 2007.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Sired by a group 1 winner over 1M 2F+ with a stamina index of 9.5F+
- Had 2 to 6 career starts
- Had first ever run over 7F or further (ideally at Newmarket, Salisbury or Sandown)
- Posted a career high RPR of 100+ last time
- Previously won a group race or won their maiden last time out
- Won over 1M+
- Ran in the 2014 Racing Post Trophy (ideally finished in first 3)
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Michael Stoute.