EPSOM OAKS TRENDS 2015

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The Investec Oaks takes place at Epsom on Friday 5th June. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. There have been a couple of upsets in recent years with Look Here taking the prize at 33/1 in 2008 and 3 of last 4 winners going off at 20/1.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding


British bred: 5-11-59
Irish bred: 4-6-56
American bred: 1-3-12
Other: 0-0-2
8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (2 exceptions by group 2 winner)
Last 3 winners were sired by a winner of the Epsom Derby.
Pivotal progeny: 01330 (1-2-5)

Dosage Profile


Composite Dosage profile: 4.8-2.9-15-4.2-1.9
Composite Dosage Index of last 10 winners is 1.12
Composite Centre of Distribution of last 10 winners is 0.16

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 over 1M 2F+ last time
6 of 10 winners won last time out (4 exceptions finished 2nd/3rd in an Oaks trial)
9 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR last time (last 9 winners posted RPR of 99+ last time)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
6 of 10 winners won at listed level or higher (1 exception finished 2nd in a group 1 & other 3 were 2nd/3rd in listed or group 3)

2yo Form


Federation of Bloodstock Agents EBF Maiden winner (Toujours L'Amour/Lady Of Dubai): 1261 (2-1-4)
Universal Recycling EBF Maiden winner (Star Of Seville/Beautiful Romance): 30 (0-1-2)
Debutante Stakes winner (Raydara): 55 (0-0-2)
Fillies' Mile winner (Together Forever): 64 (0-0-2)
May Hill Stakes winner (Agnes Stewart): 645 (0-0-3)
Silver Flash Stakes winner (Jack Naylor): 505 (0-0-3)
Montrose Stakes winner (Irish Rookie): 846 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in Federation of Bloodstock Agents EBF Fillies' Maiden, finishing 11

3yo Form


Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Victoria Pollard): 1541474 (2-0-7)
Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Jazzi Top): 0000711 (2-0-7)
Musidora Stakes winner (Star Of Seville): 38516350 (1-2-8)
Dubai Duty Free Golf World Cup EBF Conditions Stakes winner (Star Of Seville): 13 (1-1-2)
Cheshire Oaks winner (Diamondsandrubies): 61005270 (1-1-8)
Lingfield Oaks trial winner (Toujours L'Amour): 79029420 (0-2-8)
Blue Wind Stakes winner (Pleascach): 4052 (0-1-4)
Victor McCalmont Memorial Stakes winner (Legatissimo): 9 (0-0-1)
1000 Guineas winner (Legatissimo): 444 (0-0-3)
Salsabil Stakes winner (Bocca Baciata): 570 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Pretty Polly Stakes last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Sweetenham Stud Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora Stakes, finishing 21
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks trial (Musidora, Pretty Polly, Sweetenham, Height Of Fashion, Lingfield or Cheshire Oaks)

Trainers


Aidan O’Brien (2-5-32) has won the race twice in the past 10 years though he his runners have represented 24.8% of the total runners. His first strings have a record of 1-3-10.
Ralph Beckett (2-1-8) trained winner in 2008 and also saddled the 1-2 in 2013.
John Gosden (1-2-7) has saddled the winner in 2014 and a placed finisher in 2 of other 3 runnings since 2011.
Michael Bell (1-1-4) trained the winner in 2009 and the third in 2013.
Ed Dunlop (1-0-4) trained the winner in 2004 & 2010.
William Haggas (1-0-2) trained Dancing Rain to win it in 2011.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-0-3) trained the winner in 1995 & 2002 but his last 4 runners have all been unplaced.
Irish-trained runners have a record of 2-8-42, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record becomes 0-3-10.



Price


The recent trend has been towards longer priced winners, with 4 of last 7 going off at 20/1 or bigger.
Favourites (3-1-11) have won 3 of last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.62 since 2005.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a winner of a group 1 (Pivotal fillies do well)
- Dosage Index of approximately 1.12
- Centre of Distribution of approximately 0.16
- Had 1 or 2 runs this year
- Ran in the past 35 days & achieved career high RPR of 99+ last time
- Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)
- Won over 1M+
- Ran over 1M 2F+ last time
- Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)
- Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial this year
- Trained by Ed Dunlop, John Gosden, Michael Bell or Ralph Beckett.