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    Default EPSOM OAKS TRENDS 2015

    The Investec Oaks takes place at Epsom on Friday 5th June. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. There have been a couple of upsets in recent years with Look Here taking the prize at 33/1 in 2008 and 3 of last 4 winners going off at 20/1.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





    Age
    Race for 3yos

    Breeding


    British bred: 5-11-59
    Irish bred: 4-6-56
    American bred: 1-3-12
    Other: 0-0-2
    8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (2 exceptions by group 2 winner)
    Last 3 winners were sired by a winner of the Epsom Derby.
    Pivotal progeny: 01330 (1-2-5)

    Dosage Profile


    Composite Dosage profile: 4.8-2.9-15-4.2-1.9
    Composite Dosage Index of last 10 winners is 1.12
    Composite Centre of Distribution of last 10 winners is 0.16

    Recent/Past Form


    9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
    10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
    10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+
    10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 over 1M 2F+ last time
    6 of 10 winners won last time out (4 exceptions finished 2nd/3rd in an Oaks trial)
    9 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR last time (last 9 winners posted RPR of 99+ last time)
    10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
    6 of 10 winners won at listed level or higher (1 exception finished 2nd in a group 1 & other 3 were 2nd/3rd in listed or group 3)

    2yo Form


    Federation of Bloodstock Agents EBF Maiden winner (Toujours L'Amour/Lady Of Dubai): 1261 (2-1-4)
    Universal Recycling EBF Maiden winner (Star Of Seville/Beautiful Romance): 30 (0-1-2)
    Debutante Stakes winner (Raydara): 55 (0-0-2)
    Fillies' Mile winner (Together Forever): 64 (0-0-2)
    May Hill Stakes winner (Agnes Stewart): 645 (0-0-3)
    Silver Flash Stakes winner (Jack Naylor): 505 (0-0-3)
    Montrose Stakes winner (Irish Rookie): 846 (0-0-3)
    2 of 10 winners ran in Federation of Bloodstock Agents EBF Fillies' Maiden, finishing 11

    3yo Form


    Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Victoria Pollard): 1541474 (2-0-7)
    Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Jazzi Top): 0000711 (2-0-7)
    Musidora Stakes winner (Star Of Seville): 38516350 (1-2-8)
    Dubai Duty Free Golf World Cup EBF Conditions Stakes winner (Star Of Seville): 13 (1-1-2)
    Cheshire Oaks winner (Diamondsandrubies): 61005270 (1-1-8)
    Lingfield Oaks trial winner (Toujours L'Amour): 79029420 (0-2-8)
    Blue Wind Stakes winner (Pleascach): 4052 (0-1-4)
    Victor McCalmont Memorial Stakes winner (Legatissimo): 9 (0-0-1)
    1000 Guineas winner (Legatissimo): 444 (0-0-3)
    Salsabil Stakes winner (Bocca Baciata): 570 (0-0-3)
    2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Pretty Polly Stakes last time, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Sweetenham Stud Stakes, finishing 12
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora Stakes, finishing 21
    9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks trial (Musidora, Pretty Polly, Sweetenham, Height Of Fashion, Lingfield or Cheshire Oaks)

    Trainers


    Aidan O’Brien (2-5-32) has won the race twice in the past 10 years though he his runners have represented 24.8% of the total runners. His first strings have a record of 1-3-10.
    Ralph Beckett (2-1-8) trained winner in 2008 and also saddled the 1-2 in 2013.
    John Gosden (1-2-7) has saddled the winner in 2014 and a placed finisher in 2 of other 3 runnings since 2011.
    Michael Bell (1-1-4) trained the winner in 2009 and the third in 2013.
    Ed Dunlop (1-0-4) trained the winner in 2004 & 2010.
    William Haggas (1-0-2) trained Dancing Rain to win it in 2011.
    Saeed Bin Suroor (0-0-3) trained the winner in 1995 & 2002 but his last 4 runners have all been unplaced.
    Irish-trained runners have a record of 2-8-42, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record becomes 0-3-10.



    Price


    The recent trend has been towards longer priced winners, with 4 of last 7 going off at 20/1 or bigger.
    Favourites (3-1-11) have won 3 of last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.62 since 2005.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Sired by a winner of a group 1 (Pivotal fillies do well)
    - Dosage Index of approximately 1.12
    - Centre of Distribution of approximately 0.16
    - Had 1 or 2 runs this year
    - Ran in the past 35 days & achieved career high RPR of 99+ last time
    - Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)
    - Won over 1M+
    - Ran over 1M 2F+ last time
    - Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)
    - Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial this year
    - Trained by Ed Dunlop, John Gosden, Michael Bell or Ralph Beckett.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (18th May 2015) 


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