The Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas takes place at the Curragh on Saturday 23rd May. In recent times Aidan O’Brien has proven the only trainer capable of keeping the prize in Ireland, winning 9 of the last 18 runnings, with the other 9 going back across the Irish Sea to Great Britain. Vincent O’Brien in 1988 was last Irish-based trainer (other than Aidan O’Brien) to have won the race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding


Irish bred: 7-13-58
British bred: 2-4-23
American bred: 1-2-16
Galileo progeny: 629161 (2-1-6)
Danehil Dancer progeny: 31832 (1-3-5)
Oasis Dream progeny: 063120 (1-2-6)
9 of 10 winners (last 8) were sired by a group 1 winner
8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 or 2 winners over 6F to 1M (2 exceptions by Galileo)

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo
10 of 10 winners had had 4 to 7 career starts


10 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 114+ in last 2 starts
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 21 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
9 of 10 winners had won a group race (other placed in group company)
8 of 10 winners finished in first 2 in a group 1 (1 exception yet to run in a group 1)
5 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh (4 of 5 exceptions were having their first course start & other was 2nd in group 1 here)

2yo Races


National Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 12211 (3-2-5)
Marble Hill Stakes winner (Capella Sansevero): 1 (1-0-1)
Barronstown Stud EBF Maiden winner (Gleneagles): 41 (1-0-2)
Futurity Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 225 (0-2-3)
Dewhurst winner (Belardo): 2 (0-1-1)
Tyros Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 2 (0-1-1)
Canford Cliffs Stakes winner (Convergence): 035 (0-1-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in Coventry Stakes, finishing 111
3 of 10 winners ran in National Stakes, finishing 111
3 of 5 O'Brien winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 212
2 of 5 O'Brien-trained winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 22

3yo Races


English 2000 Guineas winner (Gleneagles): 211 (2-1-3)
Highest placed finisher from the 2000 Guineas: 4211812681 (4-2-10)
Tetrarch Stakes winner (Tombelaine): 3229 (0-3-4)
Patton Stakes winner (Convergence): 2 (0-1-1)
Spring Cup winner (Lexington Times): 2 (0-1-1)
9 of 10 winners ran in English 2000 Guineas last time out, finishing 541153002
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Greenham Stakes, finishing 21

Trainers


10 of 10 winners were trained by Aidan O’Brien or in Great Britain
Aidan O’Brien (5-6-36) has won 5 of the last 10 however his runners have made up 36% of the total to go to post in the race in the past 10 years. Record of his first string is 5-2-10. 4 of 5 Aidan O’Brien-trained winners had won their maiden at Curragh as 2yos.
British-trained runners (5-4-21) have won 5 of the past 10 runnings of this race.
Richard Hannon yard (1-3-7) has gained 1 win and 3 places from his 7 runners.
Kevin Prendergast (0-1-3) & Dermot Weld (0-1-4) have both been responsible for 1 placed finisher since 2005.

Draw (excluding 2008 when there was only 5 runners)
Bottom Half: 8-11-48
Top Half: 1-7-44
Only 1 winner in past 10 years has been drawn higher than stall 6.

Price


10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
Favourites (5-4-11) have won 5 of last 10 but show a level stakes profit of 1.43 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sire won a group 1 over 6F to 8F (or by Galileo)
- Had 4 to 7 career starts (1 or 2 runs in 2015)
- Posted an RPR of 113+ in one or both of last 2 starts
- Won first time out as a 2yo
- Won over 7F to 1M
- Previously won a group race
- Finished in first 2 in a group 1
- Course winner or having first Curragh start
- Finished in first 2 in Dewhurst, Coventry, National and/or Phoenix Stakes as 2yo
- Ran in the English 2000 Guineas last time (ideally finishing in first 5)
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien or in Great Britain
- Drawn in bottom half (ideally 6 or lower)
- From first 4 in the betting.