Close

Results 1 to 1 of 1
  1. #1
    DF Jedi ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,952
    Thanks
    362
    Thanked:        1,658
    Karma Level
    323

    Info IRISH 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2015

    The Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas takes place at the Curragh on Sunday 24th May. The last 4 winners have come from Britain or were trained by Aidan O’Brien. Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner of this 6 times, however only once with his first string.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age
    Race for 3yo fillies

    Breeding


    Irish bred: 8-12-99
    British bred: 2-4-24
    American bred: 0-4-17
    German bred: 0-0-1
    9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner
    6 of 10 winners were by a horse that never won over further than a mile (3 of 4 exceptions were by Galileo)
    Galileo progeny: 10307421791 (3-2-11)
    Rock Of Gibraltar progeny: 50001 (1-0-5)
    Record horses with damsire Indian Ridge: 17193 (2-1-5)

    Recent/Past Form


    Only 2 of 10 winners had won last time out (5 were unplaced last time)
    9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 6 previous starts (exception had 8)
    9 of 10 winners had run once or twice that season
    10 of 10 winners had won over 7F+
    6 of 10 winners had won a group race (2 of others 4 finished 3rd in a group 1 and other 2 had run just twice before)
    7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a group 1 (3 exceptions yet to run in a group 1)

    2yo Races


    Highest placed finisher from Moyglare Stud Stakes: 1045191609 (3-0-10)
    Prix Marcel Boussac winner (Found): 11 (2-0-2)
    Highest placed finisher from Prix Marcel Boussac: 06121179 (3-1-8)
    Debutante Stakes winner (Raydara): 8153 (1-1-4)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF 2yo Fillies Maiden winner (Bocca Baciata): 01 (1-0-2)
    Silver Flash Stakes winner (Jack Naylor): 59209 (0-1-5)
    Flame Of Tara Stakes winner (Jack Naylor): 74 (0-0-2)
    C. L. Weld Park Stakes winner (Qualify): 09008507 (0-0-8)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Marcel Boussac, finishing 101
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, finishing 311
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Debutante Stakes, finishing 12
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in he Weld Park Stakes, finishing 27

    3yo Races


    Highest placed finisher from 1000 Guineas: 8615002412 (2-2-10)
    Derrinstown 1000 Guineas Trial (Kissed By Angels): 3431073 (1-3-7)
    Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial (Stormfly): 800304 (0-1-6)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden winner (Outstanding): 57 (0-0-2)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the English 1000 Guineas, finishing 6102
    3 of 10 winners ran in the French 1000 Guineas last time out, finishing 239
    2 of 3 Aidan O'Brien-trained winners ran in Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial, finishing 26

    Trainers


    Aidan O’Brien (3-5-34) has won 3 of the last 10 however he has sent out 34 runners in the race in the past 10 years (approximately 24.1% of total runners). His first strings have a poor record of 0-2-10.
    Dermot Weld (2-3-14) has won the race twice in past 10 years. Both his winners were unplaced in a Curragh maiden on their one run at 2. Both won their previous start and bypassed the French and English 1000 Guineas to run in this (2 of the only 3 winners since 2003 to do so).
    Jim Bolger (1-3-15) has saddled the winner and 3 places since 2005.
    Mick Channon (1-2-8) trained the winner in 2012.
    Jessica Harrington (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners get placed.
    Clive Brittain (0-0-1) trained Crimplene to win this in 2000.
    British-trained runners (2-4-26) have won 3 of last 11 from 20% of the total runners.

    Draw


    horses drawn 1 to 4: 4-9-40
    horses drawn 5 to 8: 1-8-40
    horses drawn 9 to 12: 3-1-34
    horses drawn 13 or higher: 2-2-27
    No very strong trend on the draw, though horses drawn in stall 1 have done well.
    Since 2000, the record of horses drawn in stall 1: 243151122d408202 (3-5-15)

    Racing Tactics


    7 of 10 winners raced prominently (in first 6) throughout
    2 of the 3 winners that were held up, did so on soft or heavy ground.
    The 3 winners to come further back all did so from a double-figure stall.

    Price


    No very strong trend on prices, with 6 winners going off shorter than 7/1 and the other 5 going between 10/1 & 16/1.
    Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of last 10 & show a £1 level stakes loss of £1.60 since 2005.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Sired by a group 1 winner over 1M or shorter (or by Galileo)
    - Fillies sired by Galileo or have Indian Ridge as damsire do well
    - Run once or twice in 2015
    - Won over 7F or further
    - Won a listed or group race
    - Won or placed in a group 1 (or having first try in group 1)
    - First 3 in Marcel Boussac, Debutante, Rockfel and/or Moyglare Stud Stakes as 2yo
    - Ran in English or French 1000 Guineas last time (or from Weld stable)
    - Trained by Dermot Weld or Aidan O’Brien (but not necessarily his first string)
    - British-trained runner that won at 2014 Royal Ascot or won Fillies Mile
    - Tends to race prominently.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (20th May 2015) 


Similar Threads

  1. IRISH 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2016
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 18th May 2016, 01:18 PM
  2. IRISH 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 21st May 2014, 10:31 AM
  3. IRISH 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2013
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 21st May 2013, 05:09 PM
  4. IRISH 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2012
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 23rd May 2012, 11:45 AM
  5. IRISH 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2011
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 18th May 2011, 09:41 PM

Social Networking Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •