TATTERSALLS GOLD CUP TRENDS 2015

[ganjaman2]

The Tattersalls Gold Cup takes place on the undercard of the Curragh’s 1000 Guineas day on Sunday 24th May. It’s a group 1 race run over 1M 2½F and has been won by some top class horses since the start of the turn of the millennium, including Montjeu, Fantastic Light, Hurricane Run and So You Think.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
4yo: 5-7-29
5yo: 4-0-13
6yo: 1-1-9
7yo+: 0-1-3
No strong trends on the ages.

Gender


The 10 mares to run in this race have finished: 2862334443 (0-1-10)

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 114+ last time


10 of 10 winners won over 1M 2F+
10 of 10 winners had won a group race
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (1 exceptions had been 2nd in a group 1 & other 2 had yet to run in a group 1)
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run 1 to 3 times that season
6 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh (3 exceptions having first course start & other finished 2nd in previous year's Irish Derby here)
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 116 or higher

Other Races


Previous season's Derrinstown Stud winner (Fascinating Rock): 211 (2-1-3)
Mooresbridge Stakes winner (Fascinating Rock): 1122 (2-1-4)
Irish Champion Stakes winner (The Grey Gatsby): 421 (1-1-3)
Alleged Stakes winner (Parish Hall): 2 (0-1-1)
Great Voltigeur Stakes winner (Postponed): 3 (0-1-1)
Heritage Stakes winner (Fascinating Rock): 6432 (0-1-4)
Trigo Stakes winner (Answered): 7233 (0-1-4)
4 of 5 winners aged 4 ran in the previous season's Irish Derby, finishing 1121
2 of 5 winners aged 4 ran in the previous season's Epsom Derby, finishing 32
2 of 5 winners aged 5+ ran in Prince Of Wales' Stakes, finishing 52
2 of 5 winners aged 5+ ran in Eclipse Stakes, finishing 21
4 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Arc, finishing 0164
4 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 4221
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Champion Stakes, finishing 862
2 of 10 winners ran in Mooresbridge Stakes last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Juddmonte International Stakes, finishing 14
3 of 3 British-trained winners ran in Gordon Richards Stakes that season, finishing 411
2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in previous year's Jockey Club Stakes, finishing 14

Trainers


Aidan O’Brien has won 6 of the last 12 runnings of this race but surprisingly is not represented.
Dermot Weld (2-2-7) trained the winner in 2005, saddled the first two home in 2009 and also saddled the runner-up in 2012.
Roger Charlton (1-0-1) won this in 2013 with Al Kazeem, who may try to win it again.
British-trained runners (3-2-9) have won 3 of last 10 from 16.7% of total runners, all 3 had run in the Gordon Richards earlier that season.

Price


10 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter
Nine runners has been the biggest field for this race since 2005 so it’s no surprise that all winners have been short enough in the betting.
Favourites (6-4-11) have won 6 of the last 10 however 3 of the 8 odds-on favourites to run in this have been turned over in the past 10 years. Favourites show a £1 level stakes loss of £2.57 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Fillies & mares have a poor record
- Had 1 to 3 runs in 2015
- Posted an RPR of 114+ last time out
- Won over 1M 2F or further
- Won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)
- Course winner (or having first start here)
- Officially rated 116+
- 4yo that finished in first 3 in the Irish and/or Epsom Derby’s last season
- Ran in last season’s Arc, Champion Stakes and/or Irish Champion Stakes
- British-trained that ran in Gordon Richards Stakes this season
- Trained by Dermot Weld or in Great Britain
- Priced 7/1 or below.