GREENLANDS STAKES TRENDS 2015

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The Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes is a group 2 sprint over 6F, which takes place at the Curragh on Saturday, 23rd May, on the undercard of the Irish 2000 Guineas. The race has been dominated by British sprinters in recent times, winning 8 of the last 11 (including the last 5 in which they were represented).

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
3yo: 0-2-24
4yo: 2-6-21
5yo: 3-2-14
6yo: 3-3-15
7yo+: 2-5-23
horses aged 3 or 4: 2-8-45
horses 5 or older: 8-10-52
The 2 Irish-trained winners have been aged 4
Irish trained runners aged 3 or 4: 2-7-43
Irish-trained runners aged 5+: 1-5-29
British trained runners aged 3 or 4: 0-1-3
British-trained runners aged 5+: 7-5-22

Gender


Fillies & mares (1-2-20) have won just 1 of the last 10 from just 20.6% of total runners.

Weight


From 1st September 2014, winners of a group 2 receive a 3lb penalty and winners of a group 1 receive a 5lb penalty:
horses carrying a 5lb penalty: 6251412010421 (4-3-12)
horses carrying a 3lb penalty: 332015235864806 (1-4-15)
5 of last 8 winners were carrying a penalty.

Recent/Past Form


6 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time (3 of exceptions unplaced in group 1 or 2 last time)
7 of 10 winners ran in group 1 or 2 last time out
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 107+ in last 2 outings
8 of 10 winners had had a run that year (2 others ran in Hong Kong Sprint in December on last run)
All 7 British-trained winners had had 15+ career starts
3 of 3 Irish-trained runners had 9 to 16 career starts
7 of 10 winners had won or placed at Curragh (3 others making course debut)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 6F (exception had won over 5F & been beaten a neck in a 6F listed race)
9 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race (exception won previous year's Great St Wilfrid & had run just once in class 1 company)
10 of 10 winners had won a race worth 18K+

Other Races


Highest placed finisher from the Duke Of York Stakes: 612412102 (3-3-9)
Highest placed finisher from the Cammidge Stakes: 567121 (2-1-6)
British Champion Sprint winner (Gordon Lord Byron): 1 (1-0-1)
Renaissance Stakes winner (Jamesie): 2 (0-1-1)
4 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in Haydock Sprint Cup, finishing 3092
4 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in previous year's race, finishing 2243
3 of 10 winners ran in Nunthorpe Stakes, finishing 000
3 of 10 winners ran in Sapphire Stakes, finishing 221
2 of 10 winners ran in previous July Cup, finishing 03
4 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Duke Of York Stakes last time, finishing 0141
3 of 7 British-trained winners (3 of last 4) ran in Stewards Cup, finishing 400
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Cammidge Trophy, finishing 44
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Great St Wilfrid H'cap, finishing 16
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Phoenix Sprint, finishing 91
2 of 2 seasonal debutante winners ran in HK Sprint last time, finishing 30
Since 2002 - 2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in EBF Bold Lad Sprint Handicap at Curragh in Sept, finishing 32
Since 2002 - 2 of 5 Irish-trained winners made seasonal debut in Joanna Morgan Lifetime Achievement Handicap, finishing 34

Trainers


British-trained runners (7-6-25) have won 7 of last 10 (including last 5 in which they were represented) from just 25.7% of total runners. 16 of their 29 representatives made the places.
Kevin Ryan (1-1-3) saddled Tiddliwinks to finish 2nd in 2012 and 1st in 2011.
Eddie Lynam (1-1-4) saddled Slade Power to finish 3rd in 2013 and 1st in 2014.
Mick Halford (0-2-9) has managed 2 places from 9 runners.

Draw (excluding 2006 & 2014, when less than 8 runners)
horses drawn in top 4 stalls: 5-8-32
horses drawn in middle: 2-2-21
horses drawn in bottom 4 stalls: 1-6-32
horses drawn in the highest 5 stalls have won 8 of last 11 runnings with 8+ runners.

Price


The last 9 were sent off 8/1 or shorter
Favourites (2-4-10) have won 2 of last 10 & show a level stakes loss of 3.67 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- horses carrying a penalty do well
- Aged 5 or older (or 4yo trained in Ireland)
- Finished in first 4 last time (ideally in a group 1 or 2)
- Posted an RPR of 108+ in 1 or both of last 2 start
- Has had a run in 2015 (or ran in HK Sprint on last run of 2014)
- Has won over 6F
- Won a listed or group race
- Previously won or placed at the Curragh (or having first course start)
- Won a sprint worth 18K+
- Ran in Stewards Cup, Nunthorpe, Sapphire, Haydock Sprint Cup and/or this race in 2014
- Finished in first 4 in Duke Of York and/or Cammidge Trophy in 2015
- Trained in Great Britain (and run at least 15 times before)
- Drawn in highest 5 stalls
- Sent off 8/1 or shorter.