The Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) takes place at Chantilly on Sunday 31st May. Formerly run over the 1M 4F trip, the distance of the race was shortened to 1M 2½F in 2005. The fact the race is run so close to the Epsom Derby (6 days before) means the contingent from the Britain and Ireland is generally not that strong, though The Grey Gatsby caused a shock when raiding the prize last year.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Race for 3yos
French bred: 4-10-69
Irish bred: 3-4-58
British bred: 1-4-31
German bred: 1-1-6
American bred: 1-1-16
UAE bred: 0-0-1
Japanese bred: 0-0-1
10 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner
9 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that had won a group 1 over 1M to 1M 4F
10 of 10 winners were born before 21st April
7 of 10 winners (last 7) were by a sire that finished 1st or 2nd in St James Palace, French Derby or Irish Derby
9 of 10 winners had had at least 4 career starts (exception was unbeaten in 2 runs)
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions placed in French 2000)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 108+ last time (2 exceptions won last time, posting a career high RPR in process)
7 of 8 French-trained winners ran at Chantilly or Longchamp last time
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 40 days
8 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+
4 of 10 winners had won at Chantilly (other 6 were having their first course start)
Record of horses 2nd, 3rd or 4th from the French 2000 Guineas: 43100010 (2-1-8)
Prix La Force winner (Silverware): 02431 (1-2-5)
Prix Nino winner (Kahouanne): 13 (1-1-2)
Prix De Guiche winner (War Dispatch): 01754029 (1-1-8)
Vintage Stakes winner (Highland Reel): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix Policeman winner (War Dispatch): 016 (1-0-3)
Prix De Suresnes winner (Mostaneer): 6170 (1-0-4)
Prix Noailles winner (Karaktar) : 5020 (0-1-4)
Prix Francois Mathet winner (Karaktar): 204 (0-1-3)
Prix Greffulhe winner (Sumbal): 008743 (0-1-6)
4 of 10 winners ran in French 2000 Guineas last time, finishing 1213
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix de Fontainebleu, finishing 43
French-trained runners: 8-17-131
British-trained runners: 2-1-22
Irish-trained runners: 0-2-19
Rest Of Europe: 0-0-10
Andre Fabre (2-3-19) trained the winner in 2010, the 2nd in 2012 and the 1st & 3rd in 2013. Both his winners finished in first 3 in French 2000 Guineas last time out.
Alain De Royer-Dupre (2-2-10) has trained the winner 3 times in past 12 years, most recently in 2011 with Reliable Man. He also saddled runner-up in 2014.
Jean-Claude Rouget (1-4-15) trained the winner in 2009 and also saddled 3rd in 2010, 4th in 2011, 2nd in 2013 & 3rd in 2014.
Giuseppe Botti (0-1-1) & Nicolas Clement (0-1-4) have each saddled a placed finisher in past 5 years.
Elie Lellouche (0-1-10) & Aidan O’Brien (0-1-15) have collectively saddled 25 runners, gaining just 1 place each in past 10 years.
horses drawn 1 to 5: 3-9-50
horses drawn 6 to 10: 4-4-50
horses drawn 11 to 15: 1-5-50
horses drawn 16 or higher: 2-2-32
No very strong trends on the draw, though lower draws are slightly favoured.
7 of 10 winners have gone off 11/1 or bigger
Longer priced runners have done well in this.
Favourites (2-2-12) have won just 2 of last 10 & show a level stakes loss of 4.62 over past 10 years.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a group 1 winner over 1M to 1M 4F
- Had had at least 4 career starts (& run 2 to 4 times in 2015)
- Won last time out (or finish in first 4 in a group 1 or 2)
- Posted an RPR of 108+ last time
- Ran at Longchamp or Chantilly on latest start
- Had run in the past 40 days
- Course winner (or having first run at Chantilly)
- Won over 1M+
- Won a group or listed race
- Finished in first 4 in French 2000 Guineas and/or Fontainebleau
- Trained in France (especially by Alain de Royer-Dupre, Andre Fabre or Jean-Claude Rouget).