ASCOT GOLD CUP TRENDS 2015

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The Ascot Gold Cup is the highlight of day 3, on Thursday 18th June, and for many the whole Royal Ascot meeting. A group 1 run over 2M 4F for 4 year olds and upwards, and in recent years it has been dominated by the Irish, who have taken 7 of the last 9 renewals, with Aidan O’Brien accounting for 6 of those wins.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 3-6-36
5yo: 2-3-29
6yo: 3-5-28
7yo+: 2-6-32
The ages of the winners has been fairly evenly spread out.
It’s worth noting that in the past 60 years only 2 horses aged over 6 have managed to win this: Drum Taps in 1993 (won the race the previous year) and Yeats in 2008 & 2009 (having won it in 2006 & 2007).
4 of 5 winners aged 6+ had finished in first 2 in previous year’s race.
The last 3 winners have been aged 4, the last 2 had won the previous season’s Queen’s Vase and the other was 3rd in the Long Distance Cup here on Champions Day as a 3yo.

Gender


Fillies & mares (1-2019) had failed to fill one place between 2004 & 2012, though all 7 female runners in that period went off at 12/1 or bigger, whereas in 2013, Estimate won, being sent off as 7/2 favourite, and last year, Estimate was 2nd and Missunited was 3rd at 40/1.

Breeding


8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 11.3F+
Both exceptions’ dam-sires had a stamina index of 11.3F+
The 6 Aidan O’Brien trained winners were sired by Sadler’s Wells or his son, Montjeu.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 time that year
8 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
8 of 10 winners won their last flat start
7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 109+ last time


7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions had won a group 3 and other was unbeaten on the flat)
8 of 10 winners had won over 2M+ (2 exception Yeats in 06 and Fame And Glory in 2011, both group 1 winners having first try over further than 1M 6F)
5 of 10 winners had won on all course starts (1 exception placed on both runs here & other 4 having first run at Ascot)

Other Races


Vintage Crop Stakes winner (Forgotten Rules): 11171 (4-0-5)
Saval Beg Stakes winner (Kingfisher): 3P1613 (2-2-6)
Sagaro Stakes winner (Mizzou): 02511 (2-1-5)
Previous season's Prix Royal Oak winner (Tac De Boistron): 15415 (2-0-5)
Previous seaon's Prix Gladiateur winner (Bathyrhon): 1236 (1-2-4)
Prix Vicomtesse Vigier winner (Bathyrhon): 16373 (1-2-5)
Previous season's Irish St Leger winner (Brown Panther): 31 (1-1-2)
Prix de Barbeville winner (Alex My Boy): 130 (1-1-3)
Previous season's Prix Du Cadran winner (High Jinx): 1209 (1-1-4)
Henry II Stakes winner (Vent De Force): 789030024 (0-2-9)
Dubai Gold Cup winner (Brown Panther): 2 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Queen Alexandra Stakes winner (Pique Sous): 072 (0-1-3)
Long Distance Cup winner (Forgotten Rules): P0P70 (0-0-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Gold Cup, finishing 2111
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Prix Du Cadran, finishing 135
2 of 10 winners (last 2) won previous season's Queen Vase
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Goodwood Cup, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Prix Royal Oak, finishing 11
5 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Vintage Crop Stakes, finishing 11611
3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the previous season's Irish St Leger, finishing 421
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Saval Beg Stakes last time, finishing 11
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, finishing 50
2 of 2 British trained winners ran in Sagaro Stakes last time, finishing 11

Racing Style


9 of 10 winners raced prominently, tracking the leader(s) or in touch
The majority of winners raced in the first 4, only Yeats, who was settled in 8th in 2007, came from further back.

Trainers


Irish trained runners: 7-5-22 (6 trained by A O'Brien, 4 Yeats)
British trained runners: 2-10-84
French trained runners: 1-3-12 (all 4 placed finished in first 3 in Prix Vicomtesse Vigier last time)
German trained: 0-1-5
Other: 0-0-2
7 of 10 winners were trained in Ireland, though Yeats accounted for 4 of those wins.
Aidan O’Brien (6-1-11) has trained Yeats to win the race 4 times between 2006 & 2009, saddled Age Of Aquarius to take runners-up spot in 2010, Fame And Glory to win it in 2011 and Leading Light to win it last year.
Dermot Weld (1-1-3) has gained a win and 2 places from 4 runners since 2000.
Willie Mullins (0-1-2) & Luca Cumani (0-1-2) have both saddled a placed finisher in last 2 runnings.
Mark Johnston (0-1-7) trained Royal Rebel to win it in 2001 & 2002 but has gained just 1 place from 7 runners in past 10 runnings.

Price


9 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below & came from first 4 in the betting
Rite Of Passage’s win at 20/1 in 2010 has been the only real upset in this in past 10 years, the other 9 winners have all come from the top 4 in the market and favourite has a very strong record.
Favourites (7-1-10) have won 7 of last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 8.02 since 2005.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4 to 6 (or won the race last year)
- Sired by a horse with a stamina index of 11.3F+
- Run 1 to 3 times in 2015
- Won last flat start (posting RPR of 109+)
- Has won a group race (ideally won a group 1)
- Won over 2M+ (or won over 1M 6F & having first try over 2M+)
- Tends to race prominently
- Won on all course starts (or having first run at Ascot)
- Finished in the first 2 in the 2014 Ascot Gold Cup or Queen’s Vase
- Won or placed in Goodwood Cup, Irish Leger, Prix Royal Oak or Du Cadran in 2014
- Irish-trained that won Vintage Crop and/or Saval Beg Stakes or
- French-trained that finished in first 3 in Prix Vicomtesse Vigier or
- British trained that won Henry II or Sagaro Stakes last time
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Dermot Weld
- Favourite does well.