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    Default DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES TRENDS 2015

    The Diamond Jubilee Stakes (formerly the Cork And Orrery) is a 6F group 1 sprint, which takes place on Saturday, 20th June. The race is run over a furlong further than Tuesday’s 5F King’s Stand, which can provide clues for this. The race was formerly open to 3yos but is now restricted to horses aged 4+.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    3yo: 2-6-31
    4yo: 3-7-37
    5yo: 1-4-37
    6yo+: 4-3-66
    Ages of winners have been fairly well spread out, though younger horses have done better recently with 5 of the last 7 winners all being aged 3 or 4.
    3yos won the race in 2008 & 2009 but with the introduction of the Commonwealth Cup, this race is now restricted to horses aged 4 or older.

    Gender


    Fillies & mares (1-3-19) had a poor record in this race prior to 2012, gaining no wins and 2 places from 17 runners between 2003 & 2011 but females filled the first 3 positions in 2012.
    4 females have been sent off favourite or joint favourite:
    2012 Black Caviar 1st of 14 @ 1/6
    2011 Bewitched 14th of 16 @ 3/1F
    2010 Fleeting Spirit 4th of 24 @ 13/2 JF
    2007 Miss Andretti 15th of 21 @ 2/1F

    Breeding


    Irish bred: 5-8-63
    Australian bred: 2-4-18
    American bred: 2-5-25
    GB bred: 1-2-50
    French bred: 0-1-7
    Other: 0-0-8
    9 of 10 winners were Irish, Australian or American bred, they represented less than 62% of total runners
    British bred runners have gained just 1 win despite representing almost 30% of total runners.

    Recent/Past Form


    9 of 10 winners had run in last 45 days
    7 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 110+ last time out
    5 of 10 winners had already won that year (other 5 had run no more than twice)
    10 of 10 winners had won at listed level or above (8 had won a group race)
    7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) had had 5 to 17 career starts
    9 of 10 winners had won over 6F (exception had only run over 5F)
    6 of 10 winners ran at the previous year's Royal Ascot (4 of 6 finished in first 2 & other finished 4th in Jersey & 7th in this)
    8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a group 1 over 5F or 6F (2 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1 sprint)

    Other Races


    Record of 2nd, 3rd and 4th from last year: 124108 (2-1-6)
    Previous season's Nunthorpe winner (Sole Power): 1 (1-0-1)
    Greenlands Stakes winner (Mustajeeb): 701 (1-0-3)
    Cammidge Trophy winner (Naadirr): 1090 (1-0-4)
    British Champion Sprint winner (Gordon Lord Byron): 40091 (1-0-5)
    Coolmore Stud Stakes winner (Brazen Beau): 3 (0-1-1)
    Newmarket Handicap winner (Brazen Beau): 30 (0-1-2)
    King's Stand winner: 30 (0-1-2)
    Record of placed from King;s Stand: 30043 (0-2-5)
    Haydock Sprint Cup winner (G Force): 028 (0-1-3)
    Abernant Stakes winner (Astaire): 0387 (0-1-4)
    Duke Of York winner (Glass Office): 00092 (0-1-5)
    Wentworth Stakes winner (Aetna): 9077 (0-0-4)
    Leisure Stakes winner (Tropics): 00405 (0-0-5)
    Bengough Stakes winner (Lightning Moon): 460809 (0-0-6)
    Hackwood Stakes winner (Music Master): 000000 (0-0-6)
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Diamond Jubilee, finishing 327
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York, finishing 352
    3 of 10 winners ran in the King's Stand last time, finishing 400
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Lightning Stakes, finishing 341
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's July Cup, finishing 473
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Abernant Stakes, finishing 20
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous Nunthorpe Stakes, finishing 10
    2 of 10 winners ran in Hong Kong Sprint, finishing 20

    Trainers


    British trained runners: 5-11-121
    Irish trained runners: 2-1-18
    Australian trained: 1-3-10
    Hong Kong trained: 1-0-3
    American trained: 0-2-4
    French trained runners: 0-2-10
    Bahrain trained: 0-1-2
    Other: 0-0-3
    Eddie Lynam (1-0-3) & Aidan O’Brien (1-1-7) have each trained the winner in past 5 years and were responsible for the 1-2 in 2014.
    The Richard Hannon yard (0-3-7) has filled 3 places from 7 runners.
    Wesley Ward (0-1-1) trained 2nd in 2009 & Roger Varian (0-1-2) trained the 3rd last year and 4th in 2011.
    Kevin Ryan (0-1-6) saddled the 50/1 runner-up in 2006.

    Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
    horses drawn 1 to 5: 2-2-45
    horses drawn 6 to 10: 0-7-45
    horses drawn 11 to 15: 6-6-42
    horses drawn 16 or higher: 1-3-24
    horses drawn 11 to 15 have won 6 of the last 9 renewals.

    Price


    No very strong trend on prices but longer priced horses have had some success, with 4 of last 10 winners going off between 20/1 and 33/1.
    Favourites (3-3-11) have gained 3 wins in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 0.58.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Irish, Australian or American bred
    - Ran in past 45 days
    - Posted an RPR of 110+ last time
    - Won over 6F
    - Won a group race over 5 or 6 furlongs
    - Had had 5 to 17 career starts
    - Finished in the first 4 in a group 1 sprint
    - Ran in the King’s Stand and/or Duke Of York this year
    - First 4 in Diamond Jubilee, July Cup and/or Lightning Stakes in 2014
    - Previously finished in the first 2 at Royal Ascot
    - Drawn 11 to 15.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (11th June 2015) 


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