DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES TRENDS 2015

[ganjaman2]

The Diamond Jubilee Stakes (formerly the Cork And Orrery) is a 6F group 1 sprint, which takes place on Saturday, 20th June. The race is run over a furlong further than Tuesday’s 5F King’s Stand, which can provide clues for this. The race was formerly open to 3yos but is now restricted to horses aged 4+.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-6-31
4yo: 3-7-37
5yo: 1-4-37
6yo+: 4-3-66
Ages of winners have been fairly well spread out, though younger horses have done better recently with 5 of the last 7 winners all being aged 3 or 4.
3yos won the race in 2008 & 2009 but with the introduction of the Commonwealth Cup, this race is now restricted to horses aged 4 or older.

Gender


Fillies & mares (1-3-19) had a poor record in this race prior to 2012, gaining no wins and 2 places from 17 runners between 2003 & 2011 but females filled the first 3 positions in 2012.
4 females have been sent off favourite or joint favourite:
2012 Black Caviar 1st of 14 @ 1/6
2011 Bewitched 14th of 16 @ 3/1F
2010 Fleeting Spirit 4th of 24 @ 13/2 JF
2007 Miss Andretti 15th of 21 @ 2/1F

Breeding


Irish bred: 5-8-63
Australian bred: 2-4-18
American bred: 2-5-25
GB bred: 1-2-50
French bred: 0-1-7
Other: 0-0-8
9 of 10 winners were Irish, Australian or American bred, they represented less than 62% of total runners
British bred runners have gained just 1 win despite representing almost 30% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had run in last 45 days
7 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 110+ last time out
5 of 10 winners had already won that year (other 5 had run no more than twice)
10 of 10 winners had won at listed level or above (8 had won a group race)
7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) had had 5 to 17 career starts
9 of 10 winners had won over 6F (exception had only run over 5F)
6 of 10 winners ran at the previous year's Royal Ascot (4 of 6 finished in first 2 & other finished 4th in Jersey & 7th in this)
8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a group 1 over 5F or 6F (2 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1 sprint)

Other Races


Record of 2nd, 3rd and 4th from last year: 124108 (2-1-6)
Previous season's Nunthorpe winner (Sole Power): 1 (1-0-1)
Greenlands Stakes winner (Mustajeeb): 701 (1-0-3)
Cammidge Trophy winner (Naadirr): 1090 (1-0-4)
British Champion Sprint winner (Gordon Lord Byron): 40091 (1-0-5)
Coolmore Stud Stakes winner (Brazen Beau): 3 (0-1-1)
Newmarket Handicap winner (Brazen Beau): 30 (0-1-2)
King's Stand winner: 30 (0-1-2)
Record of placed from King;s Stand: 30043 (0-2-5)
Haydock Sprint Cup winner (G Force): 028 (0-1-3)
Abernant Stakes winner (Astaire): 0387 (0-1-4)
Duke Of York winner (Glass Office): 00092 (0-1-5)
Wentworth Stakes winner (Aetna): 9077 (0-0-4)
Leisure Stakes winner (Tropics): 00405 (0-0-5)
Bengough Stakes winner (Lightning Moon): 460809 (0-0-6)
Hackwood Stakes winner (Music Master): 000000 (0-0-6)
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Diamond Jubilee, finishing 327
3 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York, finishing 352
3 of 10 winners ran in the King's Stand last time, finishing 400
3 of 10 winners ran in the Lightning Stakes, finishing 341
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's July Cup, finishing 473
2 of 10 winners ran in the Abernant Stakes, finishing 20
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Nunthorpe Stakes, finishing 10
2 of 10 winners ran in Hong Kong Sprint, finishing 20

Trainers


British trained runners: 5-11-121
Irish trained runners: 2-1-18
Australian trained: 1-3-10
Hong Kong trained: 1-0-3
American trained: 0-2-4
French trained runners: 0-2-10
Bahrain trained: 0-1-2
Other: 0-0-3
Eddie Lynam (1-0-3) & Aidan O’Brien (1-1-7) have each trained the winner in past 5 years and were responsible for the 1-2 in 2014.
The Richard Hannon yard (0-3-7) has filled 3 places from 7 runners.
Wesley Ward (0-1-1) trained 2nd in 2009 & Roger Varian (0-1-2) trained the 3rd last year and 4th in 2011.
Kevin Ryan (0-1-6) saddled the 50/1 runner-up in 2006.

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
horses drawn 1 to 5: 2-2-45
horses drawn 6 to 10: 0-7-45
horses drawn 11 to 15: 6-6-42
horses drawn 16 or higher: 1-3-24
horses drawn 11 to 15 have won 6 of the last 9 renewals.

Price


No very strong trend on prices but longer priced horses have had some success, with 4 of last 10 winners going off between 20/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (3-3-11) have gained 3 wins in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 0.58.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Irish, Australian or American bred
- Ran in past 45 days
- Posted an RPR of 110+ last time
- Won over 6F
- Won a group race over 5 or 6 furlongs
- Had had 5 to 17 career starts
- Finished in the first 4 in a group 1 sprint
- Ran in the King’s Stand and/or Duke Of York this year
- First 4 in Diamond Jubilee, July Cup and/or Lightning Stakes in 2014
- Previously finished in the first 2 at Royal Ascot
- Drawn 11 to 15.