JULY CUP TRENDS 2015

[ganjaman2]

The July Cup is one of the sprinting highlights of the British flat season and it takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 11th July. A group 1, run over 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and older. Many of the horses that contested the two group 1 sprints at Royal Ascot will do battle again in this.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-2-34
4yo: 5-5-39
5yo: 2-7-30
6yo: 1-4-21
7yo+: 0-2-20
horses aged 3 or 4: 7-7-73
horses aged 5 or older: 3-13-71
3 to 5 year olds have won 9 of last 10, though they’ve represented 71.5% of total runners.
5 of last 7 horses aged 3 to make the frame had won a Newmarket group 1 as a 2yo
horses older than 5 have a poor combined record of 1-6-41
All 7 horses aged 6+ to make the frame ran in Golden Jubilee and/or King’s Stand at Royal Ascot that year and 4 of 7 had previously finished in first 2 in a group 1.

Gender


Fillies & mares (1-1-9) have done well in this race recently. They have won 2 of the 6 runnings in which they have been represented since 2004, from under 8% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR of 114+ in last 3 starts
6 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (3 of 4 exceptions were unplaced in a Royal Ascot group 1 last time)
10 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days
9 of 10 winners had previously won 6F to 7F (exception was Fleeting Spirit in 2009 whose two previous runs at this trip had been seconds in a group 1 and group 2, both by less than a length)
9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was a listed winner having first try in a group race)
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a group 1 (2 of 3 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1, other had finished 5th in group 1)
8 of 10 winners ran at Royal meeting on their last start (5 Diamond Jubilee, 1 Kings Stand, 1 St James's Palace, 1 Queen Anne)

Other Races


horses placed in last year's July Cup: 6521 (1-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from previous July Cup to return: 630195021 (2-2-9)
Highest placed finisher in Diamond Jubilee: 0165010311 (4-1-10)
Highest placed finisher from previous Middle Park Stakes: 42001060 (1-1-8)
Highest placed finisher in Kings Stand: 0750020457 (0-1-10)
Abernant Stakes winner (Astaire): 960261 (1-1-6)
Prix du Gros Chene winner (Muthmir): 051 (1-0-3)
Leisure Stakes winner (Tropics): 32 (0-2-2)
Hopeful Stakes winner (Tropics): 2 (0-1-1)
Haydock Sprint Cup winner (G Force): 62 (0-1-2)
Al Quoz Sprint winner (Sole Power): 44 (0-0-2)
Coolmore Stud Stakes winner (Brazen Beau): 00 (0-0-2)
Newmarket Handicap winner (Brazen Beau): 707 (0-0-3)
Nunthorpe Stakes winner (Sole Power): 705 (0-0-3)
Gimcrack Stakes winner (Muhaarar): 4000 (0-0-4)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, finishing 16111
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in the Duke Of York, finishing 502
3 of 10 winners ran in previous Prix de la Foret, finishing 530
2 of 10 winners ran in the Abernant Stakes, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 02
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hong Kong Sprint, finishing 60
2 of 10 winners ran in the Haydock Spring Cup, finishing 22
2 of last 3 winners aged 3 won the Middle Parks Stakes at 2

Trainers


British-trained: 8-16-104
Irish-trained: 1-2-14
French-trained: 1-0-6
S African-trained: 0-1-3
Australian-trained: 0-1-10
Other: 0-0-7
Aidan O’Brien (1-1-8) trained the winner in 1999, 2001 & 2010.
Eddie Lynam (1-1-3) saddle Slade Power to finish 1st & 3rd in past 2 runnings.
David Simcock (1-0-1) & Richard Fahey (1-0-1) have both seen their one runner win this.
Dean Ivory (0-1-2) saddled Tropics to finish 2nd last year.
Australian-based trainers (0-1-10) have had plenty of success in the Royal Ascot sprints in the past 10 years; however their 11 runners in this race since 2003 have produced 0 winners and just 2 placed finishers despite the fact they have saddled the favourite in 5 of the 8 years they have had a runner.

Draw


horses drawn in bottom 5 stalls: 6-8-50
horses drawn in the middle: 2-5-44
horses drawn in top 5 stalls: 2-7-50
There has been a definite bias to be drawn low, especially when the race has been run on fast ground. The last 6 winners, when run on firmer than good, have come from stall 5 or lower.

Price


No strong trends on prices, 6 of 10 winners were priced between 7/4 & 7/1 and the other 4 were priced between 10/1 & 22/1.
Favourites (3-1-11) have won 3 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 0.75.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 3 or 4 (or a 5yo that ran well in Diamond Jubilee)
- Mares have done well
- Ran in last 30 days (ideally at Royal Ascot)
- Finished in first 3 last time (or unplaced in a Royal Ascot group 1)
- Posted a career high RPR of 114+ in last 3 starts
- Won a group race
- Finished in the first 2 in a group 1
- Previously won over 6F or 7F
- Finished in first 3 in Abernant, Haydock Sprint Cup, Diamond Jubilee and/or King’s Stand
- Finished in first 5 in Duke Of York and/or 2014 Prix de la Foret
- Won the Palace House and/or 2014 Middle Park Stakes
- Drawn low (stalls 1 to 5 favoured on fast ground)
- Trained in Europe (ideally in Britain).